When the Boston Celtics host Game 1 of the NBA Finals on June 6, it will be the franchise’s 81st playoff game over the past five seasons. No team in league history has played as many postseason games without winning at least one championship in the span.
Aside from a first-round loss in 2021, the Celtics have been a fixture in the later rounds of the NBA playoffs with their core led by Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, who have reached the Eastern Conference finals in four of the past five years and are now heading to their second Finals together. But Boston hasn’t been able to translate that success into an 18th banner in the TD Garden.
But there are several reasons to believe this year’s Celtics, favored over the Dallas Mavericks (or the Minnesota Timberwolves, should they complete a historic comeback from a 3-0 series deficit), can break that title drought by hoisting the Larry O’Brien trophy next month.
Let’s take a closer look at three indicators that prove this is Boston’s best team of this era.
Playoff experience
Although the Celtics’ young stars already had plenty of deep postseason runs under their belt by the time they reached the 2022 Finals, they couldn’t compare in terms of experience to their opponents, the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors were playing in their sixth Finals in eight years, all led by stars Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson.
Although Golden State’s Finals win was highlighted in part by newcomer Andrew Wiggins, the Warriors’ comfort playing on the NBA’s biggest stage surely helped them beat Boston in six games. More generally, last season’s Eastern Conference finals loss to the Miami Heat was the only time in this five-year run Boston has lost to a team with fewer total games of playoff experience entering the series.
This time around, experience will be on the Celtics’ side. Not only is their roster nearly as experienced in total games as Golden State’s was in 2022, but Boston retains seven players who saw action in the 2022 Finals. Jrue Holiday also has Finals experience, winning in 2021 with the Milwaukee Bucks. No player on Minnesota’s roster has ever reached the Finals, while Kyrie Irving and Derrick Jones Jr. are the lone two Dallas players with Finals experience.
“Time has gone by,” Brown said after the Celtics completed their East finals sweep of the Indiana Pacers. “Experience has been gained. And I think we are ready to put our best foot forward.”
Clutch performance
When Boston reached the 2022 Finals, it came despite a dismal track record in close games.. The Celtics’ minus-9.5 net rating in the final five minutes of regulation or overtime with the score differential five points or fewer — how NBA Advanced Stats defines “clutch” situations — ranked 26th in the NBA that season, ahead of four lottery-bound teams.
Against playoff competition, Boston was even worse. After a first-round sweep against the Brooklyn Nets that included multiple close wins, the Celtics were outscored by 45.6 points per 100 possessions in clutch time the rest of the playoffs, advancing to the Finals with just one win by fewer than eight points after Round 1.
Late-game execution eventually cost Boston in the Finals. Up 94-90 in the fourth quarter of Game 4 with a 2-1 lead in the series, the Celtics had a chance to move within one win of a title. Instead, the Warriors finished the game with a 17-3 run and would not lose again.
Clutch issues cropped up again during the 2023 playoffs, when they were outscored by 11.4 points per 100 possessions and lost two of three clutch games against the Heat.
Improving down the stretch, particularly offensively, was a key focus for the Celtics heading into 2023-24. The addition of big man Kristaps Porzingis gave Boston a different way to attack the switch-heavy defenses they typically face in late-game situations. The Celtics’ clutch net rating improved to plus-15.4 points per 100 possessions, fourth best in the league and the highest for the franchise since 2001-02.
While Boston’s clutch success in the 2024 playoffs has come against overmatched opponents weakened by injuries, it’s an encouraging contrast. Boston has won all four clutch games this postseason, three of them comebacks against Indiana, and outscored opponents by an NBA-best 43.9 points per 100 possessions.
Because clutch play is so noisy, it’s easy to overstate how predictive it is during the playoffs. Over the past five years, higher seeds that posted a better net rating in clutch situations than their opponents have won 66% of their series (31-16), as compared to 63% (17-10) for higher seeds that were outplayed in clutch games during the regular season. Still, improving late-game execution is a reason to believe this year’s Celtics can win it all.
Taking care of business
Particularly during a conference finals in which they trailed in both games missed by Indiana All-Star Tyrese Haliburton, the Celtics failed to fully dominate games in the fashion their talent suggests. Zooming out, Boston’s domination of injury-plagued competition stands above recent franchise playoff runs.
En route to the 2022 Finals, Boston played back-to-back seven-game series against the Bucks and Heat. It did the same thing in last season’s run that ended in Game 7 against Miami and went seven games against the Toronto Raptors in the 2020 conference semifinals. This postseason, the Celtics needed just 14 total games to reach the Finals and went 3-0 in closeout opportunities.
Undoubtedly aided by the injuries to opposing All-Stars Haliburton, Jimmy Butler, Jarrett Allen and Donovan Mitchell, Boston has a plus-10.8 net rating in the playoffs thus far. In the play-by-play era (since the 1996-97 season), seven teams have posted a double-digit net rating leading up to the Finals. Four of the previous six won the championship, and the two that didn’t (the 2013 San Antonio Spurs and 2017 Cleveland Cavaliers) lost to other teams from this group, the 2013 Heat and 2017 Warriors.
That came on the heels of the Celtics posting the second-best net rating (plus-11.7 points per 100 possessions) in the play-by-play era during the regular season, trailing only the 1996-97 champion Chicago Bulls.
None of this guarantees Boston will hang another banner. Should the Mavericks advance, Luka Doncic could be the best player in the Finals after finishing third in MVP voting, and Dallas will have traversed a far more difficult gauntlet of opponents to win the Western Conference.
If picking against the Celtics, however, you’ll need a more compelling reason than their previous playoff losses — this is the best version of Boston we’ve seen during this run.