Optimism abounds in the offseason. No matter how an NFL player performed last season, you can probably find someone who believes a bounce-back year or continued success is looming on the horizon.
Reality, as always, won’t be universally kind.
Among the many players with high expectations, several will inevitably fall short—and sometimes straight-up bust.
The list is subjective but weighs a player’s projected role against anticipated production during the 2024 campaign.
Buffalo Bills: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR
Although the offense needs a top receiver to replace Stefon Diggs, there’s no great answer on the roster—unless you believe that much in rookie Keon Coleman. As a result, the Bills signed Marques Valdes-Scantling to buoy its by-committee approach. The veteran wideout is limited as a route-runner and can be a drop-plagued target, though.
Miami Dolphins: Jonnu Smith, TE
Just because the Dolphins haven’t prioritized a tight end in Mike McDaniel’s tenure does not mean it won’t happen with Jonnu Smith. Also, you’ll safely find me within the “I’ll believe it when I see it” crowd. Smith is plenty talented, but recent history says he won’t have lots of opportunities.
New England Patriots: Chukwuma Okorafor, OT
No matter whether Jacoby Brissett or Drake Maye is leading the offense, New England has a question mark on the QB’s blind side. Chukwuma Okorafor hasn’t played left tackle since his final year of college, and making that transition—especially on what’s likely a mediocre Patriots team—could be an immense challenge.
New York Jets: Allen Lazard, WR
Allen Lazard’s production tanked in 2023, but optimism for a bounce-back year is centered on a healthy Aaron Rodgers. They spent four seasons together with the Green Bay Packers, so Rodgers is very comfortable with Lazard. Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams should be targeted most often, though, making Lazard a hugely expensive No. 3 at best.
Baltimore Ravens: Rashod Bateman, WR
Yes, it’s uncomfortable to move on from a top draft pick at a position of need. Simultaneously, the Ravens handed Rashod Bateman a two-year, $12.9 million extension after he barely generated 1,000 receiving yards in his first three seasons. His profile isn’t exactly screaming “breakout player” even as Lamar Jackson has to throw to someone.
Cincinnati Bengals: Cordell Volson, LG
Last season, Cordell Volson had a rough time. But, hey, he’s still a young player and will be 26 years old in 2024. More experience can lead to improvement. However, the reality is we’ve seen Cincinnati’s offensive line annually underperform in front of Joe Burrow, and that’s a concerning sign for someone who already struggled mightily.
Cleveland Browns: Deshaun Watson, QB
Since his contract is fully guaranteed, Deshaun Watson isn’t truly facing a make-or-break season. Cleveland may be too invested in him to actually move in a different direction in 2025 or beyond. From a perception lens, it’s certainly the case. Watson has managed only 6.5 yards per attempt in 12 starts with the Browns. That would’ve ranked 25th in the league last year, for comparison.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Van Jefferson, WR
Van Jefferson put together a solid 2022 campaign on the Los Angeles Rams, tallying 802 yards and six touchdowns. Otherwise, though, he’s totaled 798 yards in three seasons. Pittsburgh, as currently constructed, is counting on Jefferson to hold a significant role. The risk is apparent.
Houston Texans: Kenyon Green, LG
Following a disappointing rookie year, Kenyon Green missed the 2023 season because of a shoulder injury. As with Bateman in Baltimore, the Texans’ hope is watching a recent first-round selection play up to that ability, and it should help to have CJ Stroud distributing the ball quicker than Davis Mills in 2022. Green surrendered so much pressure as a rookie, however, that the optimism feels lofty.
Indianapolis Colts: Rodney Thomas, S
Behind a strong front seven, Indianapolis has potential issues at safety. Nick Cross stepped in for Rodney Thomas late in 2023, creating a competition for one starting spot in 2024. Thomas wasn’t a reliable tackler last year and created little chaos in coverage. That’s a worrying sign for his performance this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Gabe Davis, WR
One of the more curious free-agent contracts of 2024 went to Gabe Davis, who became a non-factor for Buffalo last season yet landed a three-year, $39 million offer from Jacksonville. Calvin Ridley’s departure opens up a bunch of targets on the Jags’ offense, but that doesn’t mean Davis will suddenly be a consistent producer unlike in Buffalo.
Tennessee Titans: Will Levis, QB
I greatly respect the team’s effort to put a better supporting cast around Will Levis, who’s approaching his first year as the full-time starter. I’m simply not sold on him. Inefficiency and general inconsistency plagued Levis both in college and during his debut season with the Titans, and bringing in Ridley and Tyler Boyd—while admirable—doesn’t solve Levis’ week-to-week differences.
Denver Broncos: Javonte Williams, RB
Look, I’m not giving up on his talent; the situation might not be positive for Javonte Williams. He missed 13 games in 2022 and averaged only 3.6 yards per carry last year, while Jaleel McLaughlin impressed as a rookie. Denver then drafted Audric Estime. Williams’ snap share may be trending the wrong direction in 2024.
Kansas City Chiefs: Derrick Nnadi, DT
Derrick Nnadi quickly established himself on the Kansas City defense as a rookie in 2018. For a few seasons, he was a solid player, too. Nnadi’s impact has steadily dipped over the last two years, however. The position’s lack of depth should keep him in the lineup, but expectations for Nnadi should be relatively low.
Las Vegas Raiders: Gardner Minshew II, QB
On one hand, it’s fair to acknowledge that Gardner Minshew II is probably a caretaker option at best. Maybe the Raiders think Aidan O’Connell can be a long-term answer, but the more likely scenario is Las Vegas targets a top quarterback in the 2025 NFL draft.
Los Angeles Chargers: Will Dissly, TE
Jim Harbaugh loves himself a blocking tight end. If you understand that is Will Dissly’s strength, you won’t be disappointed. If you look at his $8 million annual rate and expect pass-catching production, you will be. Dissly has just 96 receptions in the last four seasons.
Dallas Cowboys: Ezekiel Elliott, RB
In short: 2016 is a long time ago. Reuniting with Ezekiel Elliott is a fun concept, but Dallas might not be happy with the outcome. He averaged 4.2 yards per carry in 2021, then 3.8 in 2022 and 3.5 with the New England Patriots last season. Elliott doesn’t produce like a top back anymore.
New York Giants: Daniel Jones, QB
Even before factoring in his recovery from a serious knee injury, Daniel Jones has a difficult outlook. He’s never cracked seven yards per attempt in five seasons as a starter. Sure, the Giants upgraded the receiving corps, but Jones has consistently been a below-average QB. Now, he just happens to be a very expensive one, too.
Philadelphia Eagles: Avonte Maddox, CB
The bright side, so to say, is Philly bolstered the position with Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean in the draft. Their additions put extra pressure on Avonte Maddox, who’s performed well when healthy over the last two years—yet only played 13 games in that stretch. Maddox can start, but he’ll be held to an even higher standard with such promising rookies ready to swipe some important snaps.
Washington Commanders: Zach Ertz, TE
Zach Ertz has reliable hands. For rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, that will be a positive in a safety outlet. At this point of Ertz’s career, however, that’s about as positive as it gets. He hardly generates any yards after the catch and is no longer a high-volume target.
Chicago Bears: D’Andre Swift, RB
Chicago charged after D’Andre Swift and rapidly signed him to a three-year contract in free agency. He’s been a decently efficient player through four seasons, too. The offensive line is still an issue, though, and the Bears’ strength is now at receiver with Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze joining DJ Moore. Swift, who totaled 1,263 scrimmage yards in 2023, might not come close to that number in 2024.
Detroit Lions: Marcus Davenport, Edge
Considering the overall strength of the team—still a wild thing to say about Detroit—taking a flier on Marcus Davenport was a sound decision. If he works out, great! If not, it was a one-year deal. Unfortunately, the latter is quite possible. Davenport has routinely struggled with injuries and volatile production in six NFL seasons.
Green Bay Packers: Anders Carlson, K
Kickers are fickle. After a single misfire in seven games to start 2023, Anders Carlson missed a kick in 10 of Green Bay’s next 12 outings. Lost confidence is a real challenge for specialists, and a similar kind of struggle could lead to Carlson not making it through 2024 on the roster.
Minnesota Vikings: Ed Ingram, RG
A two-year starter in Minnesota, Ed Ingram is entering a crucial third season. He’s yielded 100 pressures and 16 sacks so far, according to Pro Football Focus. As the Vikings begin to build around JJ McCarthy, they probably won’t have as much patience for Ingram next offseason if he has another subpar year.
Atlanta Falcons: Rondale Moore, WR
The juxtaposition here is I applaud the move to acquire Rondale Moore, who swapped places with QB Desmond Ridder. Atlanta no longer had a place for Ridder, so it’s sensible to take a swing on unlocking Moore. Simultaneously, I believe it won’t materialize unless if he emerges from a gadget role and finally creates big plays as a receiver.
Carolina Panthers: DJ Wonnum, Edge
Twice in four seasons with Minnesota, DJ Wonnum notched eight sacks. That upside looks good, but it also happened opposite Danielle Hunter. Wonnum doesn’t have that luxury in Carolina, which generated the NFL’s fewest pressures in 2023 and traded Brian Burns this offseason.
New Orleans Saints: Trevor Penning, OT
Trevor Penning, a first-round selection in 2022, is running out of chances. New Orleans benched him relatively early last year, and he’s shifted from left to right tackle this offseason. Penning absolutely could find himself on the roster bubble if he stumbles again in 2024.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ben Bredeson, LG
Really, the choice is the position. Ben Bredeson is competing with Sua Opeta at left guard, and both are concerning. They already traded spots as the first-stringer in OTAs, and that shuffle is a real possibility in the fall because neither one has been a regular NFL starter.
Arizona Cardinals: Sean Murphy-Bunting, CB
Last season, the Cards ranked 27th in yards allowed per pass. They needed to upgrade the secondary this spring and brought in Sean Murphy-Bunting, among others. The problem is he just surrendered 9.3 yards per target with Tennessee last year, and a shaky defense in Arizona probably won’t hide his worst moments.
Los Angeles Rams: Colby Parkinson, TE
Seriously, what do the LA teams see in Seattle tight ends? Colby Parkinson signed a three-year agreement with $15.5 million guaranteed after tallying 50 catches for 569 yards over the last two seasons. That’s a remarkable amount of money for replacement-level stats.
San Francisco 49ers: Colton McKivitz, RT
While he ended the 2023 campaign in better form, Colton McKivitz generally underwhelmed as the starting right tackle. San Francisco signed him to an extension through 2025, but the contract would not preclude the Niners from moving on if McKivitz is hardly an average blocker again.
Seattle Seahawks: Anthony Bradford, RG
Outside of left tackle Charles Cross, there’s not much excitement for Seattle’s offensive line. The unit, quite frankly, could be atrocious. I’ll point to Anthony Bradford because of his pass-protection woes as a rookie, but he’s simply one piece of a greater problem.