Prospect Profile: Bub Carrington, The Slasher, Searcher, and Savior

The last time I was regularly watching Pitt sports, it was a sheer confusion about a prospect that become the mascot of my high school fantasy football league. A quarterback eligible to be drafted after only one year of real play time. In the NFL, without the one-and-dones of basketball, the lack of information made him unknowable, tantalizing, even if it never did work out. It was 2015-16, and it was all about Nathan Peterman.

Simultaneously, Men’s Basketball Coach Carlton Carrington was building up a freshman power forward from nothing. Jamel Artis showed up on campus after out-heighting the entire Maryland youth circuit for four years of high school. The Baltimore product came in as a pass-first connecting forward and left as an All-ACC Third Team player before he was drafted by the Orlando Magic.

This is when we meet our protagonist. It was Carlton “Bub” Carrington III, who was 11 at the time, that shadowed Artis through the rigorous pre-draft workouts. When Carlton the elder drove up to help Artis through the prospect testing and combine at Madison Square Garden, he was joined by Bub and a friend Bub had dragged along.

While his friend watched with awe, Bub watched with ambition and with a promise in mind: I will make it here one day, and I’m going to learn so much in the meantime that no one can stop me from the next goal either.

We have this stigma around coaches’ sons and, in some or most cases, that’s valid. Access to your coach lets you prove yourself more often. Parental belief gives you a chance to get opportunity early and often. Free scholarships are never a bad thing.

But, let me ask you this: how can you keep your best player off the court?

The ACC’s youngest player came into his first game, put up a triple-double, and never looked back from there. He just kept his foot on the gas.

There’s a real lightening quality about Bub. There’s a real feeling of watching your high school teammate from the sidelines — yes, I was regularly on the bench — and feeling happy that you can watch them handle everything coming at them with no worries that they’ll figure it out.

Have you ever seen someone do something and immediately understand that they are completely in their element? The first thing that comes to mind are those Turkish ice cream salesman who may have better scoop control than Allen Iverson or Kyrie Irving. The second fleeting thought is Kevin Costner playing a gruff mentor. The third is Bub Carrington creating a fastbreak off of an opponent made basket.

There’s something so purely enjoyable of watching him fly down the court in four or so dribbles and launch a transition 3-pointer. Does it always work? No, not even remotely; Carrington shot 32% from deep last year. In fact, he often rushes a little bit to get to the play that he thinks will work best in that moment. Does that constant enthusiasm make it bearable when the shot goes off the backboard with 18 seconds on the shot clock? Also no, but it certainly helps.

The Roller Coaster of Offense: How Long Are You Willing to Wait?

The 6-foot-5 combo guard functioned largely as an iso scorer. With a bafflingly high 75% of his makes being unassisted, Pitt depended on him to regularly and frequently make anything and everything happen for the Panthers, who struggled to get much done on offense at all. They employed Carrington as the linchpin to many of their actions, including both on and off ball sets. As the only shot-maker available, upon a cursory glance, it’s easy to push the blame of Bub’s shooting numbers onto the general roster around him.

While his aforementioned lack-luster shooting from deep is a mark for concern for any lead guard, his nearly 80% free throw shooting on three attempts per game gives hope along the margins.

This all sounds negative, but the good news is that while the simple numbers paint a sad picture, the larger film gives a lot to be excited about. Carrington successfully creates leverage from the mid-range, from the top of the key, and from catch-and-shoot situations often. His shot is fluid and clearly comfortable and his shot point takes great advantage of his long arms.

Additionally, as always with per game totals, his 4.1 assists per contest total hides just how encouraging his passing became throughout the year. A 24% assist rate and a translatable 2.1 assist-to-turnover ratio is just the start. There were real moments when I looked at the screen and saw the Pitt Panthers run the same set three or four times in a row and have it work almost exclusively because of Carrington’s ability to wait and wait and wait and find the right read. The Binghampton game (I know it’s Binghampton) is especially showing.

Despite his height and 6-foot-8 wingspan, Carrington is still clearly figuring out how to leverage his growth spurt into actual explosion to the rim. It’s difficult to watch sometimes as he creates an advantage but loses it because of subpar athleticism at the break. Better athletes will often make it harder for him to do anything but curl off his approach to the rim. This is likely to blame not only for his shot diet but also his lack of at rim finishing skills.

His most infuriating habit is the jump pass. I say this with love, as my favorite write Caitlin Cooper has said otherwise, but Carrington gets in the air far too quickly and is left panicking while falling back to earth like a basketball Icarus. Those mistakes were often ended with a wasted shot clock instead of a turnover, which is certainly a silver lining, but still less than ideal.

Carrington is also clearly raw as a processor and as a slasher. He notably has very few counters for a ball handler as adept as he is, and that pops on film. He needs a ton of reps both with the ball in his hand and within an offensive system to iron out kinks in his decision-making and pass placement.

Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images

Why Are You Guys Mad at Me, I’m Right? : The Defense is Not that Bad

A lot of talk has been made about Carrington’s lack of steals, blocks, or overall defensive impact. The subpar athleticism shows its head once again here. I would’ve loved to see some devotion to the preventative side of the ball especially when he hit a slump in the middle of the season. I would’ve. It would’ve gotten me far higher on Bub as a prospect.

But, I’m here to say that even with how disappointed I was to see a genuine misuse of 6-foot-5 height and 6-foot-8 wingspan, I want to be clear on this.

It really wasn’t that bad.

Look, I get it. Especially on a Timberwolves site, a team that now prides itself on defense, we should be hoping for prospects to fit into that identity effortlessly, but the concept of star workloads holds true.

There are so few true stars in the NBA today (Carrington will likely not be a star in the NBA) that play both sides of the ball all game because the bandwidth just isn’t there. Kawhi Leonard has been coasting on a reputation that he built 10 years ago defensively. When the responsibility on offense grows, the defensive responsibility and accountability usually falls as well. That’s what I see with Carrington.

It is for this reason that I was to remind everyone of Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who is my draft comparison for Carrington. Go back and watch the player that NAW was as at Virginia Tech. He was empowered offensively, maybe to the point of overwork, but stayed engaged defensively. In his last seven games, Carrington was fully locked in on defense, finishing with eight combined steals and blocks. It’s not a number that impresses, but it was a huge improvement from the earlier slice of the season.

Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images

Draft Comp: Nickeil Alexander-Walker/Jalen Hood-Schifino

It’s not super hard to find a gangly framed combo guard to compare Carrington to. These two hyphenated guards were my favorites of the group. Jalen Hood-Schifino was essentially red shirted for the Los Angeles Lakers last year, but was thrust into the lead guard role at Indiana, much like Bub at Pitt, and struggled getting all the way to the rim.

I think the player that Carrington should hopefully become is somewhere between the player that Alexander-Walker was drafted to be and the player he has since become. The ideal role for Bub is likely as an early reserve who can generate impactful shot creation while being a functional playmaker. I’ve seen the Cam Thomas and Jordan Clarkson comparisons, and while I don’t agree with them, I can certainly see that vision.

Ultimately, I think the response on Carrington depends on how the potential of age plays out. In a draft that is being tagged as among the worst ever, are you more or less willing to take a flyer on a potential triple when there are so many solid singles and doubles available?

For this reason, I think it’s more likely that we see Bub go in the lottery than to fall into the 20s. When forward Ron Holland averaged 20 points per game and will still likely be drafted for defense, it’s hard to look at Carrington’s performance with a bit of skepticism on how he’ll be viewed.

However, the size and the mindset brings us back to who he was nearly a decade ago. You bet on players with the blend of characteristics that Carrington has. I’d rather be wrong on someone hungry than be right on someone content to coast.

For a Wolves team that needs a succession plan at point guard and on ball shot creation, Bub is worth the bet.