Sunday, December 22, 2024

Race-by-race preview and tips for Dubbo on Monday

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Track Soft 7 & Rail out 6m from 1000m to 400m & True the remainder.

Race 1 – 12.25PM MAIDEN HCP (1620m)
Improving four-year-old 3. Jeffo is tracking to peak fourth-up getting out in distance. Wasn’t overly suited on the tighter track when running home late as an easing favourite before again hitting the line impressively via a checkered run in heavy going here over 1400m. Drawn to get cover off the fence with some nice weight relief and striking peak fitness over a much-needed longer trip. He’s ready to win.

Racing returns to Dubbo on Monday for an eight-race meeting.Credit: AFR

Dangers: 6. Hot Gospel is the immediate threat, also fourth-up after hitting the line into a place in consecutive maidens that had more depth. There’s a gap to the rest, headed by 1. Bledisloe, who is fit, but finding it hard to break through, although the extra trip is a plus. 5. Amantaka is on a seven-day back-up from a deeper Super Maiden.
How to play it: Jeffo to win.

Race 2 – 1.05PM BENCHMARK 58 HCP (2220m)
Tough mare 1. Raiding ran home evenly in three straight runs at this track before attacking the line late in a deeper BM 66. Tracking to peak now getting out to the longer and more suitable trip and is well weighted, carrying only 2kg more after the jockey’s claim for the drop in grade.
Dangers: Plenty of respect for 4. Love Rules, who gets in light after the claim and is suited over further. Expecting a better run from 3. Rufus Winright, who had little chance last time settling a mile back and then going through the slower part of the track in the straight. 5. Kalpana steps up sharply in grade from picnic level, but draws the inside with a huge weight drop, while 2. Foxy Baroness fifth-up is the best of the rest.
How to play it: Raiding to win.

Race 3 – 1.40PM MAIDEN HCP (1320m)
Lightly raced 2. Air Combat peaks big second-up, with winkers going on. Showed solid improvement across his initial prep earlier in the year, culminating in a strong closing run at deeper provincial level over 100m further. Did his best work late when resuming here over too short a distance, but this shapes as the right trip now, settling in the second half of the field.
Dangers: Big watch on tough and consistent 8. High Charge, who is very fit and draws to get good cover off speed. Keep safe 5. Full Commitment, who will also get back and run home second-up, while 11. Oojah Capow, deep into his prep, is the best of the rest.
How to play it: Air Combat to win.

Race 4 – 2.20PM BENCHMARK 74 HCP (1020m)
Plenty of chances in a good quality sprint, but talented 5. Aquarter is best suited up in grade and aiming for back-to-back wins third-up. Was stiff when resuming, getting home hard against BM 66 opposition, before a dominant win here when slicing through the field and powering over the top in heavy ground. Right up to this level and again settles back midfield with cover before being given his head around the 400m. Well in at the weights after the 2kg claim.
Dangers: 1. Custo has plenty of class when fresh and looks well tuned for this after a smart trial win at Scone. Big watch on local mare 6. Starlink, who resumes without officially trialling, but comes to hand quickly and was a dominant winner at BM 66 level last prep. 3. I’m Not Slew and 4. Castlebar Road, both fourth-up with claiming jockeys aboard, boast tactical speed and can give a big sight for a long way.
How to play it: Aquarter to win.

Race 5 – 2.55PM MAIDEN PLATE (1020m)
Having his first run for the new home-track stable off a two-month break, 3. Great Southernland can strike fresh, especially with the track drying out. Hit the line from well back in a handy Super Maiden before again doing his best work late in a strong race at Scone over 1300m. Has a rock solid record when on the fresher side and key gear changes including blinkers coming off are further pointers he’s ready to go. Will naturally settle off speed and come with a sustained late run.
Dangers: Emerging 12. Wicked Testimony is well suited if he gets a run. Has attacked the line impressively in his last two and his natural off-speed pattern offsets the wide draw. Also keep safe 4. He’s All Style, who improves sharply second-up, while lightly raced 2. Erion, at his fourth start, and improving 8. Lots Of Fiddees, who relishes rain-affected ground, both go into trifecta and first-four plays.
How to play it: Great Southernland to win.

Race 6 – 3.35PM BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1120m)
Local five-year-old 2. Midnight Dream drops sharply in class fourth-up. Ran home OK when fresh here after being backed from $4.80 into $4.00, before again hitting the line from much further back over 1100m. Went to deeper Saturday Highway grade at Randwick and held his own back in the field behind one of the more exciting gallopers in NSW. Back at home now in this company on a nine-day turnaround over a shorter trip and, with the jockey’s allowance, he’s ready to claim a fourth career win at his 27th start.
Dangers: Hard fit and drawn on the fence, 8. Climate Control is reliable in all conditions and has been placed behind some smart winners this prep. Watch the betting on emerging filly 9. Ishamashi, who was solid enough through the line first-up here in heavy going. 3. Who Ever Thought has been given five weeks since a tough win at Scone on the fresh side, while 5. Obey improves second-up over a longer trip.
How to play it: Midnight Dream to win.

Race 7 – 4.10PM BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1120m)
Progressive 3. Giving Delight comes back in distance five weeks between runs. Has been right behind the placegetters in three of his past four, each time powering home late and twice as a clear favourite when not getting much luck in transit. Both his career wins so far have come at this bigger track. Will also find this a bit easier than his last outing here and, freshened up, nothing will be finding the line stronger.
Dangers: Watch the market closely aboard 8. Rothgate, who resumes with no official trials for a leading local stable and normally comes to hand quickly. Home tracker 1. Pyromania continues to race well and draws inside, although the handicapper hasn’t missed him with 63kg. Keep safe 2. Starane, who relishes this trip, while 4. Feirme Prince and, at bigger odds, 6. Barcoo River can both add plenty of value into wider exotic plays.
How to play it: Giving Delight to win.

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