Every contract is negotiated with hopes of a productive partnership between a player and an NFL team.
That promise, however, often goes unfulfilled.
Soon enough, these expensive agreements can become a glaring issue on the salary sheet. Few contracts are fully guaranteed—although the league’s worst deal in 2024 is exactly that—but franchises tend not to absorb a monstrous cap hit until a less painful “out” in the contract. Unless, of course, you’re the Denver Broncos this offseason.
The choices are subjective but focus on term remaining, money owed and post-release cap hits.
The bright side is the New York Giants are only tied to Daniel Jones through the 2024 season.
Nevertheless, the contract is likely to linger.
Jones signed a four-year, $160 million contract during the 2023 offseason. Even at the time, it seemed like an unnecessary risk for a player who’d never been anything above a league-average quarterback. Then, he struggled badly in six games before a knee injury last year.
In 2024, Jones’ cap number is just short of $47.9 million. Perhaps he puts together a resurgent season after the Giants drafted wide receiver Malik Nabers and bolstered the offensive line.
If not, however, releasing Jones next offseason would mean he still counts $19.4 million against the 2025 cap.
That’s a real possibility, yet it’ll sting anyway.
In fairness, Matthew Stafford’s performance hasn’t slipped close to a problematic level. He remained a solid quarterback in 2023 despite not having star wideout Cooper Kupp for much of the campaign.
The issue is the QB’s contract does not afford the Los Angeles Rams much of a window to move on, if desired, through expiration in 2026.
Not that L.A. would remotely consider moving on this year, his contract has $86.5 million in dead money this season. After that—no matter if he’s designated as a post-June 1 cut—the Rams would have at least $18.5 million in dead money for 2025 and/or 2026.
Stafford turned 36 this offseason, and we’ve seen quarterbacks be productive into their 40s. This is not a dire situation right now.
Should his efficiency drop, though, the conversation won’t be painless.
Miles Sanders assembled a decent four-year run with the Philadelphia Eagles and entered 2023 free agency on a high note. He’d rushed for 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns in the previous season, and that production convinced the Carolina Panthers to offer a four-year contract.
Through one season, it’s a bust of a deal.
Sanders rushed for just 432 yards and lost his starting job to Chuba Hubbard in 2023. Then, the Panthers used a second-round pick on Jonathon Brooks in the 2024 NFL draft.
As a result, Sanders may hold a minimal role despite his contract having $7.5 million in dead money at best in 2024.
In all likelihood, the Panthers will release him next offseason when the penalty drops below $3 million.
Similar to Sanders, JuJu Smith-Schuster inked a pricey free-agent deal in 2023 and endured a rough season with a bad offense.
After winning a Super Bowl on the Kansas City Chiefs, he landed a three-year agreement with $16 million guaranteed from the New England Patriots. The team’s dysfunction didn’t help, but Smith-Schuster mustered only 29 catches for 260 yards and one touchdown.
And he’s more expensive in 2024.
Smith-Schuster has a $10.3 million cap number this season and would cost nearly $2 million more to release. For better or worse—the Pats are hoping for the former—he’ll be with New England.
Barring a surge from Smith-Schuster in the fall, the franchise can move on next offseason and save $7.5 million.
I’m sure I’ve said it before: The idea of Taysom Hill has consistently been more exciting than his actual performance.
Sure, he had a career-best season with 692 scrimmage yards last season. His versatility is both fascinating and useful for the New Orleans Saints, who utilize Hill at four offensive positions and on special teams.
He is simply not worth the price, however.
This season, after restructuring his contract for a third straight year, the Saints are staring at a $9.2 million cap number. That figure ascends to nearly $18 million in 2025, although New Orleans could—and probably should—make him a post-June 1 cut to save $10 million.
Hill can catch on elsewhere next offseason, but he’s too expensive for someone who might play 50 percent of snaps.
Von Miller is entering a defining year.
A torn right ACL ended his 2022 campaign, and the former All-Pro edge-rusher was a non-factor last season. He logged 258 snaps in 11 games, failing to record a sack and notching only three tackles.
Miller accepted a pay cut earlier in the offseason to stick with the Buffalo Bills, but their financial commitment is considerable. He holds a $15.2 million cap number in 2024 with a contract that—while something will surely change before then—runs through 2027.
Right now, Buffalo faces $6.4 million in dead money if Miller ends up being a post-June 1 cut in 2025 or 2026. (There’s no chance the Bills accept the $15.4 million penalty of a typical release in 2025.)
Factor in that Miller will presumably be a second-stringer in 2024, and this is probably his final year in Buffalo.
In short: Jerry Jeudy had better develop into a star.
Although the fifth-year receiver flashed some encouraging signs with Denver, he maxed out at 972 yards in 2022. Jeudy has intriguing upside, yet the Cleveland Browns are already heavily invested in him.
Jeudy signed an extension after Cleveland acquired him this offseason. In that agreement, the Browns would actually take a penalty for releasing him before 2026—when, as a post-June 1 cut, he’d save a little shy of $800,000 while counting nearly $9.6 million as dead money.
So, yeah, it’s a risky deal. Might work out! May be a mess.
The worst part for Cleveland, however, is that Jeudy has the second-most concerning pact on its books.
You’d think the perpetual state of living in salary-cap hell would be exhausting for New Orleans, right?
As usual, nonetheless, the Saints used restructures to open space for the next season. This year, it was an expected adjustment with Derek Carr to clear $23 million in 2024.
However, the change also increased his upcoming cap hits to north of $50 and 60 million in 2025 and 2026, respectively. There’s no realistic “out” until 2027, and that assumes no updates to his deal next offseason—which, again, is usually not how New Orleans operates.
Even if the Saints were to make him a post-June 1 cut, their best-case scenario is more than $21 million in dead cap in 2025.
Given that Russell Wilson joined the Pittsburgh Steelers on a minimum deal, they’re getting a bargain. That could only happen because any money Pittsburgh paid Wilson would offset from his other contract.
And that one—whew, it aged poorly.
Denver acquired Wilson in 2022 and quickly handed him a five-year, $245 million extension. Wilson’s effectiveness declined sharply, and the franchise took on a record $85 million in dead money to release him.
The contract persists for another year, though; the Broncos remain on the hook for $37.8 million of his $39 million salary in 2024.
Denver made a bold and uncomfortable decision, but its cap sheet will be grateful in 2026 and beyond.
Cleveland traded for Deshaun Watson prior to the 2022 campaign and fully guaranteed all $230 million of his five-year extension.
Woof.
As if that’s not enough, every restructure only prolongs his impact on the books. Sure, the salary cap presumably will rise annually, but the Browns have already added a void year of nearly $9 million in 2027.
Cleveland went 5-1 in his starts in 2023, so there’s optimism for success this season and beyond. Entering his age-29 season, Watson is squarely in traditional late-prime years, too.
If he slides, however, shedding his contract without taking on significant dead money will be almost impossible.
All contract data is from Over The Cap.