Already nearly halfway through the summer and looking ahead to fall camp with around 60 days until the start of the 2024 college football season, it’s officially Talkin’ Season with preseason rankings making the rounds ahead of what figures to be a historic year of football.
With both transfer portal windows now closed, ESPN revealed its official preseason 134-team rankings on the Football Power Index. The index simulates every game 20,000 times and rates every team in FBS by a projected point margin per game that it predicts they’ll win by against an average team on a neutral field.
Related: College football 2024 transfer portal team rankings
And: Phil Steele’s preseason top 40 college football rankings
Which 10 teams came out on top in those rankings? Hint: it’s a lot of Big Ten and SEC schools.
The index projects Missouri, bringing back key offensive personnel after a statement 11-win season, will be 15.4 points better than an average team in 2024, with an expected 37.3 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, and predicted to go 9-3 during the regular season.
Related: Ranking college football’s 10 likely first-time CFP teams
The computers give the Volunteers a 36.9 percent chance to make the expanded playoff while projecting they will win 8.6 games and be 16.6 points better than an average team. Nico Iamaleava steps in at QB1 at the helm of what should be one of the SEC’s more exciting offenses.
FPI predicts the Sooners will be 17.2 points better on the field this season while winning 8.2 games against a tough schedule in their SEC debut, good enough for a 36.6 percent shot at the 12-team playoff behind what should be an improved product on defense while young quarterback Jackson Arnold learns the ropes behind a new line.
An expanded playoff should help the Fighting Irish in the title chase, but not being in a conference will deprive them of a first-round bye opportunity. Still, ND gets 19 points on opponents by the computer’s projections, which include a 10.1 win total and a good 59 percent shot at the CFP.
Another school expected to take advantage of the larger playoff, the Nittany Lions get offensive skill back and should play strong defense again, a projected 19.8 points better on the field by FPI’s rankings, and expected to win 10.1 games with 2.3 losses.
For the first time in a long time, the Crimson Tide are expected to win fewer than 10 games, coming out with a projected 9.3 wins against 3 losses on the index, but should be 21.9 points better than what it calls average teams, creating a bit more pressure for Kalen DeBoer as he steps in for the GOAT.
Loaded with blue-chip transfers after an aggressive offseason, the Buckeyes are not atop the preseason Big Ten rankings on the power index. But they’re still top-four, expected to be 22.2 points better on the field, projected to win 10.2 games with 2.2 losses, and placing second with a 25.7 percent shot at the B1G title.
Bound for the SEC after their first playoff appearance a year ago, the Longhorns are loaded for bear, second-favorite in their new league on the index, with a 24.2 percent shot to win in Atlanta, expected to win 10 games, and be 22.9 points better than opponents on average.
There could be a new alpha dog in the Big Ten, as the Ducks join their new conference as its projected favorite on the index. Oregon is set to be 24.5 points better on the field and win 10.8 games with a 76 percent shot at the CFP behind two monster lines and the nation’s best receiving corps.
The class of college football this season, the sport’s budding dynasty and its favorite to win what would be a third title in four years, Georgia leads the nation in the race to win its conference, make the playoff, and hoist the trophy. FPI projects the Dawgs are 26.8 points better than teams on the field and will win 10.3 games while losing an expected two matchups.
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