Policymakers are being called on to investigate why data shows that since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of deaths in addition to those expected to occur (or ‘excess deaths’) has remained high.
A data analysis of 47 countries found that of the 3,098,456 overall deaths from 2020-2022 in Europe, North America, Australia and New Zealand, excess deaths reported each year were 87% (reported by 41 countries), 89% (reported by 42 countries) and 91% (reported by 43 countries) over the three-year period.
Greenland was the only country out of the 47 reporting no excess deaths during this time.
The findings by Dutch researchers come despite government policies to introduce containment measures and the availability of COVID-19 vaccines, prompting researchers to call on governments to “thoroughly investigate” the possible underlying causes of these deaths.
The aim of the study was to assess the effectiveness of the public health response to the pandemic by examining the rate of excess deaths.
A statistical method called Karlinsky and Kobak’s estimate model was used to run the analysis of historical death data, accounting for seasonal variation and annual trends in deaths due to shifts in population.
The paper by researchers from the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Princess Máxima Center for Paediatric Oncology of The Netherlands was published in BMJ Public Health on Tuesday.
In the three years between 2020-2022 the researchers noted particular measures were introduced and could be considered against the rate of excess deaths.
For example, in 2020 when the pandemic started, a range of lock-downs, social distancing, school closures and quarantine measures were put in place. In this year 1,033,122 excess deaths (11.5% higher than expected) were recorded.
In the following year, 2021, the spread and infection of SARS-CoV-2 virus spread and infection was managed with containment measures and vaccines. In this year 1,256,942 excess deaths (just under 14% higher than expected) were reported.
In the third year most containment measures were lifted and vaccines continued to be rolled out. Preliminary data shows that 808,392 excess deaths were recorded.
The researchers noted that while it was unclear what proportion of excess deaths were directly caused by COVID-19, or potentially by the indirect effects of containment measures and vaccination programs.
This was because, for example, it was difficult show evidence of deaths caused by restricted healthcare use or socioeconomic upheaval.
The researchers added there was no doubt that indirect effects of containment measures affected the scale and nature of disease for many people who died.
Other challenges to the findings include incomplete data attributed to the time lags in registering and recording deaths, as well as differentials in how various nations compile their data (including the fact that the results do not break down key characteristics, such as age or sex).
The study was supported by funding from the Foundation World Child Cancer NL.