Three Group Ones headline the opening day at Royal Ascot with Asfoora flying the Aussie flag.
Queen Anne
Perhaps not a vintage edition of the Queen Anne stakes over the mile, but an intriguing one, mainly given the result of the Lockinge, where Inspiral and Big Rock were well fancied and never in the hunt.
Of the pair, Big Rock comes here with a peak rating of 128, notably over the Ascot mile in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. That was on testing ground, with a previous peak of 122 on good-soft behind Inspiral at Deauville.
Quick ground here again doesn’t bode well for Big Rock’s chances, and the Lockinge itself seems a bit query. Audience got a picnic in front and won well, running to 125, which is on the lower end of recent Lockinge winners.
Last year saw Modern Games run to 126 to win the Lockinge, starting $2.75 in the Queen Anne but only managing fourth, and I’d be surprised if Audience has a new peak in him.
The one with different (ish) form is Facteur Cheval, who was last seen winning the Dubai Turf with a rating of 124. Beat some smart types from Japan, Hong Kong and Europe there, and while it was a new peak, it wasn’t out of the blue.
Form around Big Rock last time in having also beaten home Charyn (second in the Lockinge) at Goodwood reads well and while he’s no spoil at the price, he looks one of, if not the horse to beat.
King Charles Stakes
Over to the five furlongs here where Asfoora is aiming to become the sixth Australian horse to win the race. She’s rated to a peak of 121 as a winner of the Group 2 Schillaci Stakes (1100m) at Caulfield, with a bulk of ratings around the 116 mark.
She was below her best at her first UK run in the Group 2 Temple Stakes (1005m) at Haydock but not by all that much, running to 109. That was likely more testing ground than she would’ve liked so a wide draw and firm track here are certainly in her favour.
In what doesn’t look a strong sprint, Big Evs is the colt with upside the market has gravitated to. We have him running to 116 in his Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (1006m) win, and then 117 in his reappearance at York.
The time compared to the handicap on the same card wasn’t anything flash and while he’s obviously talented (and fast), a testing five furlongs here in the big field might be a different scenario for him.
I think the UK market might drift Asfoora a bit more given they’ve already seen her run at Haydock, and I think she might become a bet. If she can get back to her 116 sort of rating here, she’s a genuine hope, and if she were to find her absolute best, she should probably be favourite.
St James Palace Stakes
Definitely the race of the day with a few high quality three-year-olds doing battle. Notable Speech goes up favourite having won the Guineas at Newmarket to remain unbeaten, posting a big new peak rating of 124.
That’s on the lower side of a typical Guineas winner, the same rating Poetic Flare ran in 2021 who went on to win the St James by 4.25 lengths and run 127. He did start 16-1 there off all-weather form prior which is worth noting.
Rosallion was second at Newmarket and has since gone on to win the Irish Guineas, running to a new peak of 121. He does have a bit more bulk behind his ratings having run to 116 as a two-year-old.
The one that creates the most interest is Henry Longfellow for the formidable O’Brien/Moore combination.
An exceptionally bred type (Dubawi out of a seven time G1 winning daughter of Galileo), he had already run to 120 as a two-year-old when winning Vincent O’Brien National Stakes at the Curragh.
He resumed in the French Guineas at Longchamp and was a bit disappointing but didn’t get much luck and should be ridden more aggressively here. If he can get back to his best, which I’d back the stable to do more often than not, he’s a genuine hope.
Happy to back Henry Longfellow and save on Rosallion, trying to get Notable Speech beaten.
