Ben Coley has had a winner and a runner-up on the DP World Tour over the past fortnight. Get his selections for this week’s Scandinavian Mixed.
Golf betting tips: Scandinavian Mixed
4pts win Rasmus Hojgaard at 16/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)
2pts e.w. Matthew Jordan at 28/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Calum Hill at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. David Law at 100/1 (BoyleSports, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Todd Clements at 125/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Linn Grant’s victory in the 2022 Scandinavian Mixed should be considered one of the most impressive tour-level performances in modern golf history. If that sounds a bit over the top, consider this: Grant won by nine shots, beating a former men’s Open champion. More importantly when it comes to really understanding what she achieved, the closest any of her Ladies European Tour counterparts got was 14 behind her.
Before, during and since that renewal of this brilliant tournament, it’s been clear how heavily the odds are stacked in favour of the men, largely because the DP World Tour is ahead of the LET in its development. It is stronger, deeper, for reasons that are obvious and no slight on those working their way up the women’s ladder.
The numbers have been just as resounding as Grant’s win was. Last year, male players made up 36 of the top 40 and, for betting purposes, six of the top eight. None of the female players got close to the winner and, in three years of changing courses and tee positions, Grant is the one and only exception.
Now we go to another new venue, Vasatorps, and it was a surprise to discover that the gap between the men’s yardage and the women’s is actually down on 2023. Last year, it was close to 1300 yards, up around 50% from 2022, when organisers understood that Grant was the exception. This year, it’s currently listed as 953, with the course itself considerably longer for both sides of the draw.
Conditions can be adjusted during play, something we witnessed last week when the Green Eagle scorecard had been published with a 700-yard hole before the tournament took place without one. Nevertheless, it would’ve taken a significant expansion of the distance gap to alter my belief that the male players will dominate. To see it not only narrowed, but on a fundamentally longer golf course, is a bit of a head-scratcher.
The market though does now align better with reality than it did last year, when Grant opened up as favourite over a borderline world-class male golfer in Alex Noren. There’s nobody quite of his level in this field owing to a clash with the Memorial Tournament, yet Grant has doubled in price following further proof that it will take something extraordinary for someone, even Grant herself, to do as she did in 2022.
If anyone can, perhaps it’s Madelene Sagstrom, who practises here at Vasatorps quite a bit even if she’s based in Florida. The Swede is one of the longest hitters on the LPGA Tour and has been every season she’s played on it, while she was fifth with a round to go on her Scandinavian Mixed debut in 2023. Second to Rose Zhang in the LPGA Founders Cup three weeks ago, she’s generally in better form than she was back then.
Sagstrom does have to fly in from a brutal US Women’s Open but her course knowledge should allow her to ease into the week, and it would be a lovely story were she to emulate Grant. Sagstrom actually made her professional debut at this course in 2015 and while Sky Bet’s 16/1 looks extremely short, prices of 33/1 and bigger do make some appeal.
Yet I return to that key statistic from last year: 36 of the top 40 were men; none of the female players got close. This tournament doesn’t need to be about who is winning in order to be a success and it’s extremely disappointing that the PGA Tour hasn’t sought to emulate it. However, our job is to find the value and ideally the champion. I feel that search ought to begin and end with the DP World Tour members.
Jesper Svensson is a Vasatorps winner via the Swedish Junior Matchplay and this powerhouse could bounce back from a wide-margin missed cut in Germany, but preference is for MATTHEW JORDAN at around 28/1.
We’re a little in the dark as regards the golf course and in truth, Vasatorps looks to offer up a little bit of everything. Exposed in general but somewhat parkland in places, if anything it reminds me a little of Barseback, former home of the Nordea Masters.
It might also be a little reminiscent of Hillside based on that mix of links-like holes and more traditional ones and another junior event which took place here went to Marcus Kinhult, winner of the British Masters at Hillside five years ago, after Jordan had led following the first round.
That line of thinking might be a bit of a stretch but Vasatorps should definitely suit some of the UK players who grew up by the coast as he did and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Jordan has played well several times from just a handful of starts in Scandinavia, with two top-fives in Denmark plus ninth place in this event last year.
It was in May and June that he really started to roll, one of those it seems who benefited from a return to Europe, and that appears to be the case once more having followed fifth place in the Soudal Open with 13th in Germany last week.
Crucially, Jordan led the field in greens hit in both of these tournaments, a surefire sign that his game is in a great place. He’s a bit of a pocket powerhouse with a short-game to die for, but if anything his approach work has needed to improve. That is exactly what’s happening right now: he’s inside the top 50 in strokes-gained approach, having ended the last two seasons outside the top 100.
The 28-year-old has all the tools to add to his Challenge Tour win at this higher level, something we saw a glimpse of when he was 10th in the Open last year, and a course like this one might just help him to realise his undoubted potential.
Hill can climb further up the leaderboard
I’m always keen to take the PGA Tour raiders seriously when they come back home as it were and Alex Bjork definitely merits respect. He’d perhaps be favoured by a shorter course, though, and I don’t mind missing out at around 20/1 given his limitations off the tee.
More interesting but harder to judge are Vincent Norrman and Henrik Norlander. The latter is playing a little better but Norrman has seven top-20s from his 14 starts on the DP World Tour including a win in Ireland. That was in a field featuring Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry, Tyrrell Hatton and five more members of the world’s top 50, and Norrman won at the same sort of price he’ll start this week.
It goes without saying this is a significant drop in grade but equally true is the fact that as well as putting poorly throughout 2024, Norrman’s long-game has gone missing. Perhaps he’ll find it away from the constant pressure of the PGA Tour but more likely is that he’s simply not in the shape required to win anything at the moment, which is a shame as any signs of improvement lately would’ve made him a knocking bet.
CALUM HILL might be and he’s my pick of the Scots who will undoubtedly be inspired by Robert MacIntyre’s sensational performance in the Canadian Open, particularly those of a similar age.
The pair used to share a coach and I really don’t think it’s a stretch to suggest that Hill could draw something from MacIntyre’s win, especially considering the fact that his sole victory at this level came a week after Grant Forrest’s own breakthrough.
Hill’s win came at London GC, which to my eye shares aesthetic similarities with Vasatorps and certainly qualifies as pretty big and exposed, and he had already won in Denmark at Silkeborg Ry, which also meets that description.
This will be just his second start in Sweden and first in this event, but it comes at a good time following back-to-back top-20s; he’s another who it seems might have improved for the return to mainland Europe.
Significantly, his approach play has also got better and better throughout each of his last five starts and like Jordan, that’s the area in which Hill can struggle.
If he can take another small step forward, his blend of strong driving and a red-hot putter should see him get competitive in a tournament where the list of potential winners might be quite short.
For that reason, RASMUS HOJGAARD also makes the staking plan.
Backing favourites on the DP World Tour can be an expensive exercise but the general 14/1 and standout 16/1 with Sky Bet and bet365, who hold a different view to mine on the event in general, looks good business if you do consider this to in effect be a 40- or 50-man tournament.
Hojgaard’s form over his last seven events has been poor for the most part but I’d rate him half the price he is based on how he played in January and February, and there were signs during last Friday’s second round that he could be about to return to that sort of level.
Remember, he’s played in a major plus three more PGA Tour events during this sequence so the most relevant piece of form is 29th place in Singapore, where he didn’t putt well. Even that would give him a decent chance here and he’s plainly capable of a heck of a lot more.
Last week, having kicked off with a nightmare round of 80 on his first DP World Tour appearance since March, Hojgaard was bogey-free in round two, his 68 bettered by just three players as he conjured a valiant attempt to make the weekend.
Falling one shot shy in the end, he should now be cherry-ripe for this and having won in his native Denmark last summer, he’s by a good way the most likely champion. For my money he’s a bet at anything 10/1 and bigger.
Clements ready to contend again
Johannes Veerman led the field in strokes-gained approach when tied for eighth last week, the second time he’s done so lately. The American really has recaptured his best form and will remain on the radar, but his driving was untidy at times and without having seen the anticipated putting improvement, he can be left alone at revised odds.
Tom Lewis is a former Dunhill Links contender with a generally strong record across Sweden and Denmark and he could be a threat to all if building on last week’s top-10 finish, but that will depend on keeping his putter under control. If he can, this two-time Portugal Masters champion certainly has the class, but one swallow doesn’t make a summer and it seems odds-on that he reverts to type.
More appealing is TODD CLEMENTS at 80/1-plus, with three-figure prices available in places.
Clements is a debutant in this event which is a bit of a surprise, as his girlfriend is an LET player. Olivia Cowan was in fact one of the leading women in the inaugural edition, finishing 10th, but has missed the cut in two subsequent tries.
Clements, who has been third in another mixed event in Northern Ireland, can make up for lost time having returned from two months off with finishes of 18th and 34th across Belgium and Germany, both personal bests at the respective courses.
I like the fact he’s gained strokes through the bag on each occasion and in truth there had been signs of promise in his long-game all year, it was just a matter of waiting for his short-game to join the party which it has of late.
The same was true when he won the Czech Masters at a big price last August and with that having taken place on another exposed course, he might also take to Vasatorps. Certainly the last fortnight represents his best golf since then and there’s more to come from Clements in general.
His friend Dan Brown is a bet at Sky Bet’s standout 100/1 but less so the general 50s which provides a rare and in some ways welcome conundrum. Most weeks, bookmakers seldom differ but on this occasion they do, so shopping around for the best prices is especially important if you can.
I’ll happily be proven wrong but an all-male staking plan is completed by DAVID LAW.
Another Scot who could draw something from watching MacIntyre take the next step in his career, Law has been an eye-catcher in his own right lately, twice finishing 13th among his last three starts, before which came a one-shot missed cut which followed 29th in Singapore.
That’s four good efforts in five and while it’s true that he does seem to love Green Eagle, he followed that up last year by finishing 12th in Sweden and can produce something similar and ideally a little better this time.
A longer, more exposed course can help on that front and with all aspects of his game looking sharp right now, particularly the driver, a second DP World Tour win is possible. That the first came in another mixed event is a nice little boost and he’s a bet at 100/1 and upwards.
Posted at 0900 BST on 04/06/24
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