Single dads are projected to grow by almost 70 per cent over the next 20 years

The way Australians are living is changing — people are having children later, parenting alone or not at all.

On Friday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) issued new statistics on household and family projections for Australia for the year 2046.

The bureau stressed projections were not predictions or forecasts.

“They are an illustration of what would happen if certain assumptions about the future living arrangements of Australia’s population were to persist over the projection period,” the bureau said.

Demographer Liz Allen believes the projections show a changing country where the ideas of not only how we live but the definition of family are changing in real time.

“Families are no longer constrained by what we used to consider,” Dr Allen from the Australian National University said.

So, what are they?

• The Australian population is projected to grow to 34 million.
• Lone-person households are projected to make up about 26 per cent of all Australian households.
• The number of families is projected to increase from about 7 million to about 9.5 million.
• Living with a partner is projected to remain the most common living arrangement.

The nature of family is changing

Family households are expected to remain the most common household type in Australia, followed by couples without children.

Lone-parent families are projected to make up about one-quarter of households by 2046, with male lone-parent families increasing at the “fastest rate” — by between 40 per cent and 69 per cent.

But single-female-parent households will remain dominant, making up around 80 per cent of all single-parent households, according to the bureau’s projections.

“So now we’re seeing families being comprised of partners only or lone parents, with their children. We are seeing the diversity of parents by way of gender and sexual orientation,” Dr Allen said.

“The changing nature of family out of a diversification of who we are means that we are making room for what has always been there. But we now have the mechanisms to support the full breadth of diversity in the population.”

Dr Allen said the projected increase in the lone male parent was likely reflective of a range of factors.

“We see fathers taking more of a parental role, particularly where separation occurs. But also that men are being recognised and stepping into the role of single parenthood,” she said.

“Just like we’ve seen, women step into the roles of single motherhood by choice.”

Couple-only families on the rise

About half the Australian population lived in a couple family with children between 2001 and 2021.

But that cohort is declining as more people delay having children, or opt out of parenthood.

For example, between 2001 and 2021, the proportion of people living in couple-only families increased in some age groups while they decreased in others.

• Increased among 25–34 year olds from 23 per cent to 28 per cent.
• Decreased among 45–59 year olds from 30 per cent to 21 per cent.
• Increased among people aged 75 years and over from 38 per cent to 45 per cent — with the ABS noting that was due to men living longer.

Dr Allen said the rise in couple-only households reflected an aging population, with proportionately more Australians in their senior years.

But at the same time, we are also seeing couple-only households for longer in the peak reproductive age.

“What isn’t considered in these projections is what’s happening on the total fertility rate front,” Dr Allen said.

“We are seeing couples and young people generally delay having children, an increasing proportion of Australians opt not to have children.”

Dr Allen said the delay in couples having children was changing our understanding of what was at the heart of family.

“There will be many families that never have children, either by choice or by circumstance,” she said.