Six-week September sprint looms in AFL’s closest finals race for 27 years — The Run Home after Round 18

With six weeks left, a few desperate sides lifted to keep their finals hopes alive – and with just two wins between 2nd and 13th, we’ve got the closest race in 27 years.

This is The Run Home, where Foxfooty.com.au analyses every club’s remaining fixture and tries to predict how the rest of the year will play out.

Which teams could take advantage of an easy draw to climb the ladder, and which clubs could tumble down the table based on a tough run of games?

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How does The Run Home work?

The below projections predict each game on a percentage chance basis, and then use those odds to give each team a projected win total.

For example, we might say two teams have a 50 per cent chance each of winning a very even game. So they’d each get 0.5 projected wins for their total. If it’s an almost certain blowout, it might be 90-10, so the favourite gets 0.9 projected wins. That’s why almost all teams have a projection that’s not a round number.

It’s all about probability, and it’s more accurate than trying to tip wins and losses, because no-one can tip nine every round.

It also means the predicted win totals are naturally conservative at the top, and optimistic at the bottom – and it’s hard for teams to catch up to sides who are multiple wins ahead of them (which is a fair reflection of reality). If you’re able to win a bunch of 50-50s, you’ll make these projections look silly, but that’s not something anyone can predict anyway.

Think of the projected win totals as the average result if you played the season out 100 times.

PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Sydney Swans vs Fremantle at the SCG

First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Brisbane Lions vs Western Bulldogs at the Gabba

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Essendon vs GWS Giants at the MCG

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

1. Sydney Swans (17.9 projected wins)

2. Carlton (15.25)

3. Geelong (14.6)

4. Fremantle (14.2)

5. Brisbane Lions (14)

6. Essendon (13.4)

7. GWS Giants (12.95)

8. Western Bulldogs (12.75)

9. Melbourne (12.7)

10. Port Adelaide (12.65)

11. Hawthorn (12.2)

12. Gold Coast Suns (12)

13. Collingwood (11.95)

14. Adelaide Crows (8.95)

15. St Kilda (8.8)

16. West Coast Eagles (4.7)

17. Richmond (4.2)

18. North Melbourne (3.8)

Below, all 18 clubs are listed and analysed in the current ladder order.

Remaining fixture difficulty is calculated using the average percentage of remaining opponents. This naturally advantages teams with a strong percentage (because they can’t play themselves) and vice versa, and does not take into account the location of the game nor its timing, but is a basic metric of how tough the remaining fixture is.

1. SYDNEY SWANS (14-3, 145.3%)

Remaining games

Round 19: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Round 20: Western Bulldogs at the SCG

Round 21: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 22: Collingwood at the SCG

Round 23: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Adelaide Crows at the SCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-hardest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Already there

Maybe this really is 2007 2.0, when Geelong was that far ahead of everyone on the ladder, and won the flag by a million. The Swans are effectively four games clear with six to play thanks to their enormous percentage, so while the next three weeks aren’t exactly a cakewalk it would take a catastrophic collapse to miss the minor premiership from here. With Carlton falling back to the pack, this team is clearly flag favourite.

Fox Footy’s projection: 17.9 wins, finishing 1st

2. CARLTON (11-6, 114.1%)

Remaining games

Round 19: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium

Round 21: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 22: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 23: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 24: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: Easiest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Maybe three, but two should be enough

We haven’t seen a ladder this close, this deep into a season since 1997, when two wins separated 2nd and 13th with five games to play. Which sounds pretty scary for a Carlton team most people (including us) were locking into the top four. We’re still very confident they get there, thanks to their fixture (and our belief in their talent). After all who’s their toughest opponent left? An out-of-form Collingwood? A Port Adelaide team that’s nowhere near as good on the road? Heck, it’s probably Hawthorn right now… and you’d still have the Blues as favourites for that one. In fact we have them favourites in all six remaining games, so it would take something incredibly strange for them to miss the eight. We’re thinking 15 wins gets you into the top four, and they can definitely win four of those six. Maybe it’ll be a bit tighter than they were hoping, and the defence is still an issue, but the Blues will be fine.

Fox Footy’s projection: 15.25 wins, finishing 2nd

3. GEELONG (11-6, 110.6%)

Remaining games

Round 19: Western Bulldogs at GMHBA Stadium

Round 20: North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena

Round 21: Adelaide Crows at GMHBA Stadium

Round 22: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 23: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: West Coast Eagles at GMHBA Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-easiest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Maybe three, but two should be enough

Footy’s streakiest side – seven wins, then six losses from seven, and now three wins on the trot – looks pretty certain to play finals from here. Theoretically someone could miss out with 13 wins this year, but we’d be pretty surprised. So that means beating two of North Melbourne in Tassie and/or Adelaide and West Coast at home (where they haven’t lost to the Crows since 2003, the Eagles since 2006). Easy enough. The real question now for Geelong is about the top four… and three of the four teams above them heading into the round lost! The trip west to face the Dockers will be important here, but we suspect 15 wins will get you a double chance, and the Cats have a strong case given the very winnable games against the Roos, Crows, Saints and Eagles to come. And of course, they almost always beat the Bulldogs, winning 22 of their last 26 meetings (last year’s loss when the Cats were out of the finals race and the Dogs were playing for their season hardly counts). Are they a proper contender for the flag? Maybe not, but does anyone feel like a proper contender outside of Sydney right now? The Cats can certainly make a prelim and from there, it’s anyone’s game.

Fox Footy’s projection: 14.6 wins, finishing 3rd

4. BRISBANE LIONS (10-6-1, 120%)

Remaining games

Round 19: Sydney Swans at the Gabba

Round 20: Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium

Round 21: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: GWS Giants at the Gabba

Round 23: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 24: Essendon at the Gabba

Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-hardest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Three to be certain, but solid chance two is enough

Few teams would’ve been happier with Saturday’s series of upsets than Brisbane, who have gone from 13th to 4th in the space of four rounds. While they have a few tricky tests to come, most notably next week against the Swans, we’d be shocked if the Lions missed the eight from here – and their percentage advantage over Fremantle and Essendon could prove decisive. After all, we’re expecting both the Lions and Dockers to reach 14 wins… the Lions would very likely be ahead in that scenario. (Our projections are based purely on projected wins and don’t include percentage.) Because of that additional tiebreaker, we would be surprised if Brisbane missed the top four while winning four of their last six, and they’ll certainly get there with either five or six wins. If the Lions can just avoid finishing fourth and copping Sydney in their qualifying final, they may go into the 2nd vs 3rd final as favourites, even if it’s on the road against Carlton, Geelong or Fremantle – so a home prelim is entirely within reach here. It’s not done yet but this has been quite the recovery already.

Fox Footy’s projection: 14 wins, finishing 5th

5. FREMANTLE (10-6-1, 113.1%)

Remaining games

Round 19: Melbourne at Optus Stadium

Round 20: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 21: Essendon at the MCG

Round 22: Geelong at Optus Stadium

Round 23: GWS Giants at ENGIE Stadium

Round 24: Port Adelaide at Optus Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-easiest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Three to be certain, but two could be enough

It could’ve been an even worse weekend for Freo, but we don’t think losing to these Hawks in Tassie is that bad of a loss, and Carlton and Essendon falling over also helps. Combine all of that with their pretty nice draw, and we still have the Dockers favoured to make the top four, but it’s a narrow lead over Brisbane, who are ahead on the ladder thanks to their percentage. It may actually be more realistic to finish ahead of Geelong, since they play each other in Round 22, though Brisbane has a couple of potential losses left including Sydney next week. Beating Essendon would also really help given they’re a direct competitor. If the Dockers just win all four home games, that might sneak them into fourth, while finding a fifth win (most likely over the Dons) should secure them the double chance. We would be very surprised if Freo missed the eight altogether but if they drop their next two, we can revisit that possibility.

Fox Footy’s projection: 14.2 wins, finishing 4th

6. ESSENDON (10-6-1, 98.8%)

Remaining games

Round 19: Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 21: Fremantle at the MCG

Round 22: Gold Coast Suns at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Remaining fixture difficulty: Hardest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Three to be certain, but two may be enough

They should still be OK but having lost four of their last six games, the Bombers’ margin for error is getting terrifyingly thin, and their top-four hopes are really fading (despite how tight the ladder looks). That’s because of that brutal final fortnight; they really need to bank their wins before then. If the Bombers win three of their next four, they’re fine, because nobody is missing the eight with 13 and a half wins. If they win all four they’re an OK chance of making the top four, though they’d still need help from someone like Geelong or Brisbane falling over. If they only win two of their next four… well, you can make it with 12 and a half wins. Sydney did it last year. But it’d be a very nervous wait in Round 24 because it sure seems like quite a few teams can get to 13 wins. (And, yes, Essendon could upset Sydney or Brisbane. But would you want to bet on that with their finals hopes on the line?)

Fox Footy’s projection: 13.4 wins, finishing 6th

7. GWS GIANTS (10-7, 109.8%)

Remaining games

Round 19: Gold Coast Suns at ENGIE Stadium

Round 20: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 21: Hawthorn at Manuka Oval

Round 22: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Round 23: Fremantle at ENGIE Stadium

Round 24: Western Bulldogs at Mars Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: Third-hardest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Maybe four, but three should be enough

The Giants probably wouldn’t have minded a more normal weekend of results, but there is still pressure coming from below them, with Melbourne, Hawthorn, the Bulldogs and Gold Coast all winning. And what do you know, the Giants play all of those teams in the final six weeks! They really do control their own fate because pretty much every remaining game is an eight-pointer, where they can really hurt one of the teams that’s trying to knock them out of the finals places. In particular it’s their next three against the Suns, Demons and Hawks, plus the Bulldogs game to end the year; we’d go as far to say in each of those games if GWS wins, the loser won’t finish above them on the ladder. Maybe we’re making it more complicated than we need to be (not for the first time); the Giants will probably make the eight with 13 wins, so they just need to win three of their last six. There are no easy wins left on their fixture but there are also no automatic losses.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.95 wins, finishing 7th

8. MELBOURNE (10-7, 105.5%)

Remaining games

Round 19: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 20: GWS Giants at the MCG

Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: Port Adelaide at the MCG

Round 23: Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium

Round 24: Collingwood at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-hardest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Maybe four, but three is likely enough

Much like the Giants, the Demons’ run home is pretty simple – they have to keep beating the teams around them to make the eight. Beating Essendon was an excellent start, making 13 wins a gettable target. Given they always lose to Freo and it’s in the west, we’d expect a loss next week, but after that can Simon Goodwin’s side win three of five? It probably comes down to the three MCG games, with the Giants and Port much more beatable when they’re on the road, and by Round 24 Collingwood could already be eliminated to make that one even easier. Heck, in their current form you’d probably have the Dees slightly favoured there anyway, with the AFL surely hoping both teams are on 12 wins and that game is win-and-you’re-in. They might have the widest range of possibilities given how tricky all six of their remaining games are – the Dees could keep rolling and challenge for a top-four spot, or fall all the way down to 12th/13th.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.7 wins, finishing 9th

9. PORT ADELAIDE (10-7, 103.4%)

Remaining games

Round 19: Richmond at Adelaide Oval

Round 20: Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Round 21: Sydney Swans at Adelaide Oval

Round 22: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 23: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 24: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-hardest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Maybe four, but three is likely enough

Losing to the Suns doesn’t ruin the Power’s season, but a win sure would’ve helped, and they’re now outside the eight for the first time all year. Perhaps most importantly the result puts a ceiling on them – we can’t see them making the top four from here – and it makes it that much more difficult to reach 13 wins. Plus percentage is an issue too, because if the Power go 3-3 and finish 13-10, they’re unlikely to boost it that much more. They’re certainly not at Hawthorn levels but they could lose a tie on 13 wins, no question. If they find 12 more points, presumably beating Richmond, Melbourne and Adelaide, they’re likely playing finals… but it’s not a sure thing by any stretch.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.65 wins, finishing 10th

10. WESTERN BULLDOGS (9-8, 114.9%)

Remaining games

Round 19: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Round 20: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Round 21: Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 23: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: GWS Giants at Mars Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-hardest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Almost certainly in with four, slim chance they’re in with three

We said they had to win one of this tricky three-week block against Carlton, Geelong and Sydney… and they’ve already won one. Hard to overstate the importance of that win over the Blues, especially when you consider the Bulldogs’ absentee list, and now even if they drop their next two games Luke Beveridge’s side has a real shot at September. We would be very surprised if they missed the eight with 13 wins, given how good their percentage is, so beating Melbourne, Adelaide, North and GWS would be enough for finals footy. Of course that still leaves the Bulldogs in their trademark position of ‘just win these games in the final few weeks and you’ll be OK’, which is genuinely happening for a third straight season; last year they stuffed it up, and the year before that they snuck into eighth when Carlton lost that thriller to Collingwood. As we tweeted on Saturday, we rate the Dogs as a top-four team (though we can understand if you dispute that because of their inconsistency); a safer statement would be at their best they’re a top-four team, and nobody would want to play them in an elimination final. That confidence has us tipping them to make the eight (if only just).

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.75 wins, finishing 8th

11. GOLD COAST SUNS (9-8, 106%)

Remaining games

Round 19: GWS Giants at ENGIE Stadium

Round 20: Brisbane Lions at People First Stadium

Round 21: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 22: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Melbourne at People First Stadium

Round 24: Richmond at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-easiest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Likely to make it with four, but not 100% safe

We would love to say something new about the Suns, but they keep doing the same thing! Their away ineptitude means they have to keep winning at home, and thankfully for their sakes, they did over Port Adelaide. Unfortunately four of their remaining six games are away, and they’ve got arguably their toughest home game of the year when Brisbane visits in two weeks’ time. So even if they beat the Lions and Demons (we’d certainly expect them to win the latter), they have to win a couple away to get to the magic number 13. Beating the Giants away is probably the least likely of the four options, but if they can at least win once over the next fortnight, that last month really shouldn’t be THAT hard – so they would be in the hunt.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12 wins, finishing 12th

12. COLLINGWOOD (8-7-2, 102.9%)

Remaining games

Round 19: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 20: Richmond at the MCG

Round 21: Carlton at the MCG

Round 22: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Round 23: Brisbane Lions at the MCG

Round 24: Melbourne at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-hardest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Likely to make it with four, but not 100% safe

Now they’re in deep trouble. When you combine three consecutive losses against fellow finals contenders with a weekend where a bunch of teams below them won, the Magpies’ equation just got way more complicated. And this is where the 0-3 start really hurts them, because even though they lost just once between Rounds 2 and 14, they just don’t have enough wins on the board. Can they recover and get to 12 wins? Yeah, maybe; even in their weakened state the Pies should beat Richmond, Hawthorn is probably still 50-50, and we saw how well they beat Melbourne on King’s Birthday. That’s your 12. But look how many teams are already on nine or more wins! It seems likely 13 will be the minimum required; where is that 13th win coming from, based on the Magpies’ current form? Heck, you could argue the way they’ve looked in recent weeks, they’ll struggle to get to 12. Next week is almost an elimination final by itself – but given how tough their last month is, realistically the Magpies have to win their next two. Or else as the kids say, it’s joever.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.95 wins, finishing 13th

13. HAWTHORN (9-8, 95.4%)

Remaining games

Round 19: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 20: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 21: GWS Giants at Manuka Oval

Round 22: Carlton at the MCG

Round 23: Richmond at the MCG

Round 24: North Melbourne at UTAS Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-easiest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Good chance they’re in with four, but need five to be certain

The brilliant win over Fremantle keeps the Hawks’ dream of a finals miracle alive… but they’re still 13th! And they still need some help. Their percentage makes them especially vulnerable to missing the eight even if they reach 13 wins – we can easily imagine a world where they’re level with the Bulldogs, Demons, Power and/or Giants on wins, but miss out. If they win five or six of their last six, they’re fine no matter what, while if they win three we can’t see them making it. So if you’re trying to find four wins, you’re looking at the Tigers and Kangaroos… and then who? We would argue the next four games are in ascending order of difficulty, so they need to lock in those wins as early as possible; the Magpies look particularly gettable right now, plus the Hawks always play well against them, so there’s your starting point. It’s effectively an elimination final with how much both teams need the four points.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.2 wins, finishing 11th

THE NON-CONTENDERS

14. ADELAIDE CROWS (6-10-1, 105%)

Remaining games

Round 19: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Hawthorn at Adelaide Oval

Round 21: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Round 22: Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval

Round 23: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 24: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-hardest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Even if they win their last six, they’d be 50-50 to make it

Fox Footy’s projection: 8.95 wins, finishing 14th

15. ST KILDA (6-11, 91.1%)

Remaining games

Round 19: West Coast Eagles at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 21: Brisbane Lions at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: Richmond at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Geelong at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-easiest

Fox Footy’s projection: 8.8 wins, finishing 15th

16. WEST COAST EAGLES (3-14, 70.3%)

Remaining games

Round 19: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 21: Gold Coast Suns at Optus Stadium

Round 22: North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena

Round 23: Carlton at Optus Stadium

Round 24: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-easiest

Fox Footy’s projection: 4.7 wins, finishing 16th

17. NORTH MELBOURNE (2-15, 64.3%)

Remaining games

Round 19: Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Geelong at Blundstone Arena

Round 21: Richmond at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: West Coast Eagles at Blundstone Arena

Round 23: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-easiest

Fox Footy’s projection: 3.8 wins, finishing 18th

18. RICHMOND (2-15, 63.2%)

Remaining games

Round 19: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 20: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 21: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 24: Gold Coast Suns at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-easiest

Fox Footy’s projection: 4.2 wins, finishing 17th