Sunday, December 22, 2024

Stock market today: Nasdaq pops, Nvidia rallies amid more jobs market cooling

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US stocks rose on Wednesday, buoyed by tentative optimism for interest rate cuts amid signs of slowing labor demand and a cooling economy.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose nearly 0.8%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the gains, popping about 1.4%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained about 0.2%.

Tech was the clear leader on Wednesday, with megacaps Nvidia (NVDA) and Meta (META) rising more than 2% while Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG) popped about 1%.

Stocks have had a bumpy ride as the market wavers over whether to interpret a softening in economic readings as a positive sign for the chances of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve or a negative sign signaling the start of a broader slowdown.

Data out Tuesday showed job openings fell to a three-year low in April. Cracks in the labor market could spur the Fed to begin lowering borrowing costs, but they are also a sign the economy could be headed for recession rather than a soft landing.

Read more: How does the labor market affect inflation?

That said, hopes for a Fed shift appear to be growing. About 65% of traders now expect policymakers to reduce the benchmark rate at their September meeting, compared with less than 50% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

The ADP private payrolls report released Wednesday provided the latest evidence of labor market cooling, as private-sector growth for May came in below estimates. The bigger focus, though, is firmly on the labor data highlight of the week, the key monthly jobs report coming Friday.

In individual movers, Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) shares rose as much as 15%, setting the stock up for its biggest gain since 2016. The surge came after HPE posted a revenue beat fueled by a jump in sales of AI-focused servers.

Live9 updates

  • Google hires Eli Lilly vet as CFO while search giant pivots to AI

    Shares of Alphabet( GOOG, GOOGL) were up about 0.6% in midday trading Wednesday as the company announced it is hiring a new CFO.

    Yahoo Finance’s Hamza Shaban reports:

    As Google pivots to incorporate AI technology across its array of services, its parent company, Alphabet, is bringing on a new CFO.

    Anat Ashkenazi, a 23-year veteran of the pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly (LLY), will become the top financial officer and senior vice president of Google and Alphabet at the end of next month, the tech giant announced Wednesday.

    The move comes at a pivotal moment for Google. The two-trillion-dollar tech company is waist-deep in a transition to harness the power and excitement around generative AI. It’s churning out huge investments in data centers and infrastructure and is retooling flagship products to claim turf in the burgeoning market for AI tools. The digital advertising king aims to be the dominant player in the next era of computing.

    Ashkenazi comes to Google after overseeing a period of staggering growth. Eli Lilly’s share price has surged close to 700% over the past five years. Among its newer products are Mounjaro and Zepbound. Both medicines are from the increasingly popular class of drugs that lower blood sugar and promote weight loss.

    Ruth Porat, who has served as Google’s CFO since 2015, was promoted to president and chief investment officer last year. She will oversee investments in Other Bets, as well as regulatory matters and international expansion.

  • Wage growth keeps slowing for job switchers as US labor market cools off

    The pay gap between job stayers and job changers narrowed in May in the latest sign that the US labor market is cooling from a hot start to 2024.

    New data from ADP released Wednesday showed that the median year-over-year pay increase for job switchers fell to 7.8% in May, from a recent spike of 8.3% in March and 8% in April. The gap between pay gains for job changers and those of job switchers, which grew at a 5% pace in May, is at its lowest level since February and a far cry from 2022-2023 levels.

    “We’ve seen that people’s willingness to jump from job to job has really declined over the last two years,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said on a conference call with reporters Wednesday morning.

    Richardson noted that the trend of fewer people leaving their jobs for a big pay bump isn’t new, as she and other economists have been tracking the shift from the “Great Resignation” to the “Great Stay.” But recently, there have been other changes. Companies are focusing more on retaining and training workers rather than recruiting, and consequently, prospective workers are finding it harder to land new jobs.

    “When I talk to employers, their narrative has changed a lot over the last year,” Richardson said. “Instead of being totally focused on hiring and replacing workers, they’re really focused on productivity, getting the most out of the workforce, and having a workforce that is engaged.”

    Richardson added that workers are still finding jobs. It just seems “it’s taking a bit longer.”

    Read more here.

  • Besides Nvidia in the AI realm…

    Nvidia (NVDA) shares hit another record intraday high shortly after the opening bell, as investors push the stock up on hopes for relentless demand for AI chips.

    But, that doesn’t mean investors should pile in and chase the AI trade.

    In fact, industry insiders are pushing for a reality check.

    I had the chance to sit down with Nutanix (NTNX) CEO Rajiv Ramaswami at BofA’s Global Tech Conference, and while he’s excited about AI’s growth prospects, he warned “AI investments have gotten ahead of reality.”

    “There has to be a valid business case… to justify the cost of AI investments. There’s a little bit of a disconnect between those two right now,” Ramaswami told me.

    The fallout, Ramaswami said, will likely result in a lot of startups losing their value. He also added “there could potentially be a slowdown in the level of investment dollars in terms of these massive build outs.”

    Ramaswami is not alone when cautioning that the current outlook is unrealistic.

    Pure Storage (PSTG) founder John “Coz” Colgrove told me expectations are “overhyped” in the short-term.

    “AI is going to be transformative, but it is going to take a little longer than people think. What they think will happen over the next 10 years is probably going to take 25 years. It’s going to happen, but it takes a little longer to build out the infrastructure and to really get the effects everywhere,” Colgrove said.

    Yes, talks of an AI bubble are resurfacing once again.

  • Nvidia stock hits all-time high ahead of stock split

    Nvidia’s (NVDA) stock rally keeps rolling.

    The chipmaker’s stock rose about 3% on Wednesday morning, hitting a new-time record high just shy of $1,200 a share. The move comes just days before the company enacts a 10-for-1 stock split.

    Shares are now up nearly 35% in the past month as Wall Street has grown even more bullish on the company’s AI prospects after its latest earnings report.

  • Growth in services sector returns stronger than Wall Street expected

    Economic activity in the services sector returned to expansion in May, after contracting for the first time in nearly two years during the month of April.

    The Institute for Supply Management’s services PMI registered a reading of 53.8 in May, up from 49.4 in April and higher than the 51 print that economists expected, according to Bloomberg data.

    Any reading above 50 reflects the sector is in expansion territory.

    Elsewhere in the release, the measure for prices paid decreased to 58.1 from 59.2 in the month prior. Meanwhile, those for new orders and employment ticked higher. Notably, though, the employment reading of 47.1 reflected that the index remained in contraction territory.

    “The increase in the composite index in May is a result of notably higher business activity, faster new orders growth, slower supplier deliveries and despite the continued contraction in employment,” ISM Services Business Survey Committee chair Anthony Nieves said in a release. “Survey respondents indicated that overall business is increasing, with growth rates continuing to vary by company and industry.”

    He added: “The majority of respondents indicate that inflation and the current interest rates are an impediment to improving business conditions.”

  • Stocks pop at the open

    US stocks popped on Wednesday, buoyed by tentative optimism for interest rate cuts amid signs of slowing labor demand and a cooling economy.

    The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the gains, popping 0.7%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained about 0.2%.

    The moves come as hopes for a Fed shift appear to be growing. According to the CME FedWatch tool, about 65% of traders now expect policymakers to reduce the benchmark rate at their September meeting, compared with less than 50% a week ago.

  • Some tech stock intel

    The AI chip craze is expected to bring big business to Lam Research (LRCX).

    The chip supplier, whose customers include Intel (INTC), Samsung, and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), foresees its high-bandwidth memory business tripling this year and expects “even stronger” demand in 2025.

    “Frankly, I see continued strength for the foreseeable future,” Lam Research CFO Doug Bettinger told me inside Bank of America’s Global Technology Conference late Tuesday. “The opportunity in front of this industry and the opportunity in front of Lam specifically is amazing,” Bettinger added.

    This week, Bank of America analysts raised their price target on the stock to $1,100 while maintaining a Buy rating.

    Analyst Vivek Arya (who also struck a bullish tone on Nvidia on Yahoo Finance Live yesterday) noted that while chip equipment makers are currently trading at a premium relative to historical levels, he and his team believe valuation is justified in part due to AI leading to record levels of wafer fab equipment (WFE) intensity.

    The company’s recently approved 10-for-1 stock split, along with a new $10 billion share buyback, reignited investor excitement last month.

    However, Lam remains an underperformer compared to rivals. The stock is up 18% this year versus Applied Materials’ (AMAT) 31% surge and ASML Holding’s (ASML) 26% climb.

  • Here comes Apple’s WWDC

    Amid a five-day rally, Apple’s (AAPL) stock is taking dead aim at breaking through its late January closing high of $195.75 ahead of WWDC this coming Monday.

    Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring is out with a great deep dive into what’s expected from the event and Apple’s stock price around WWDC.

    Sa Woodring:

    “We believe that at WWDC, Siri 2.0 will be introduced as a next-gen, voice-activated virtual assistant/intelligent layer capable of processing more complex commands directly on the iPhone, which will improve the utility value of the device and its native applications, including text/website summarization, automated messaging, new photo editing tools, and more. In addition, we believe it’s highly likely Apple announces a cloud-based foundation model partnership at WWDC (GOOGL or OpenAI?), which would add broader cloud-based AI chatbot-like features to iOS18. While we’d expect Siri’s capabilities to continue to evolve over time, including deeper integration of more complex multicommands with third-party applications in future software updates, this would represent Apple’s most important software overhaul to-date, and formally enter Apple into the mega-cap Gen AI race.”

    WWDC news gets embraced by investors after the event, historically speaking. WWDC news gets embraced by investors after the event, historically speaking.

    WWDC news gets embraced by investors after the event, historically speaking. (Morgan Stanley)

  • GameStop, day 3

    I am still on GameStop (GME) stock watch.

    Shares are down about 1% premarket following a 5.36% slide on Tuesday. The stock is off by 36% from the highs hit on Monday after Roaring Kitty’s post.

    I did a special taping of my “Opening Bid” podcast yesterday afternoon, 100% focused on GameStop. Check it out below. I came away wondering if maybe I am thinking about this stock entirely the wrong way!

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