Sunday, December 22, 2024

Summer scouting: Who’s atop muddled 2025 NFL Draft QB class?

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With high-level prospects like Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, we knew last summer that the 2024 quarterback draft class was going to be special. Ultimately, six quarterbacks (Williams, Maye, Jayden Daniels, Michael Penix Jr., J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix) were selected in the top 12 picks — something we might never see again.

Unfortunately, the 2025 class of quarterbacks isn’t nearly as exciting. Nonetheless, there are several promising passers poised to make a jump this upcoming season. I wouldn’t call any of them top-10 locks, but neither was Daniels at this time last year, and the first five prospects highlighted below are capable of making a push for an early draft spot.

There will be plenty of fluctuation with these quarterback rankings over the next six months.

(Notes: An asterisk represents a draft-eligible underclassman. Heights and weights are what NFL teams currently have on file for each player, with  “v” representing verified measurements and “e” for estimates.)

1. Carson Beck, Georgia (6-4 1/4v, 218v)

What he does best: Middle-of-field timing

Beck does a lot of things well. He plays with textbook mechanics; he is a smart decision-maker and takes what the defense gives him. But what stands out the most on tape is the way he attacks the middle of the field. And the stats back that up. On throws between the numbers last season, Beck completed 78.6 percent of his attempts with a 15-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Part of that success was tied to inside receivers Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey, but Beck’s anticipation and timing over the middle is very strong, regardless of his target.

On this 35-yard play against Tennessee, Beck does a terrific job with his eyes to keep the safeties outside the hashes. With his target’s back to the line of scrimmage, he makes an anticipatory throw to a vacated spot that is on the money and allows the receiver to gain an additional 10 yards.

Must improve: Proving himself versus pressure

Beck plays composed and smart, which helps him get the ball out of his hand before the rush can get home. But when the blocking doesn’t hold up or he is asked to play outside of structure, he isn’t as comfortable or productive. Beck was pressured on just 19 percent of his dropbacks last season — only Oregon’s Bo Nix (now with the Denver Broncos) was pressured less among all FBS quarterbacks. Beck is a strong distributor, but NFL scouts are hoping to see more creativity, when needed, in 2024.

2024 season/2025 NFL Draft outlook

As a non-transfer quarterback, Beck is an outlier in modern-day college football. Stuck behind Stetson Bennett, he bided his time as the Bulldogs’ backup for two seasons before assuming the starting role last season. Not only did Beck prove he belonged right away, he also showed gradual improvement with each game, finishing the 2023 season with 72.4 percent completions, 3,941 passing yards, 28 total touchdowns and just six interceptions.

Beck cracked my top-50, midseason draft board last Halloween, but he opted to return for a second season as the starter in Athens. The Georgia offense didn’t demand creativity from their quarterback last season, but more will be expected of the senior now that three of his top four pass catchers are in the NFL (including Bowers, a top-15 pick.)

A good-sized passer, Beck has a strong arm, natural feel for timing and a calming, efficient process — the tools to have a Matt Ryan-like NFL career.

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What he does best: Athletic poise

Studying the 2023 Colorado offense, there weren’t many future pros on the field, which frequently forced the quarterback to “make things right.” And Sanders was often up for the challenge. He was pressured on 195 dropbacks last season and sacked 49 times — both ranked second highest in the FBS. (Some of those sacks were because of the quarterback, but more on that later). Yet, Sanders showed the poise to work around the noise and create positive plays. It became tougher against better competition, but Sanders’ consistently raised the talent level around him due to his natural instincts.

Watching Sanders operate late in the Colorado State game was exciting in real time and even more impressive on tape. Considering his bloodlines, Sanders’ athletic poise is hardly surprising — but it’s still fun to watch.

Must improve: More efficient process

Sanders does some of his best work outside of structure, and you don’t want to remove that from his game. But he has a tendency to prematurely bail or hold onto the ball too long — areas he’s admitted he needs to improve. On the five tapes of his from last season that I studied (TCU, Colorado State, Oregon, UCLA, Oregon State), there were several examples of Sanders missing open receivers because he was locked on a preferred read or scrambling and taking sacks because his eyes were in the wrong spot or focused on the rush pressure.

2024 season/2025 NFL Draft outlook

Sandersmania (father and son) took over college football last September with Colorado’s explosive 3-0 start. The Buffs quickly came back down to earth against better opponents, and the program finished with a 4-7 record (which included only one win in its final eight games). However, Sanders was a bright spot. He finished the 2023 season with 69.3 percent completions, 3,230 passing yards, 31 total touchdowns and only three interceptions.

As an NFL prospect, Sanders has a lot to like. He is a poised athlete with B-plus arm strength and natural feel for accuracy. He has the talent to be a top-20 pick, but scouts will be looking for on-field maturation in 2024, including more efficient vision to get rid of the ball on time. Considering his size (verified 6-foot-1 1/4 inches and 198 pounds this spring), he can’t realistically take as many hits in the NFL as he did last season at Colorado.

There is also the possibility of Sanders influencing where he wants to be drafted. In an appearance this past March on the Million Dollaz Worth of Game podcast, Deion Sanders stated it will be an “Eli (Manning)” situation regarding both his son and Travis Hunter, saying, “I know where I want them to go. So there might be certain cities where it isn’t going to happen.” Time will tell.

3. Quinn Ewers, Texas (6-2e, 210e)*

What he does best: Arm talent

Regardless of Ewers’ feet, body balance or arm angles, the ball consistently jumps off his hand with effortless zip and control, which allows him to make all the necessary throws. He has a snappy release and can just as easily rip a frozen rope with velocity to the wide side of the field or loft a teardrop over the coverage.

There are plenty of examples of Ewers’ arm strength on film, but I wanted to highlight his knack for timing and touch when leading receivers downfield:

This is a third-and-5 play in the fourth quarter against Washington. Ewers starts his eyes to the right for the quick throw at the sticks, but the Huskies have it covered. He immediately works his eyes to the boundary and lofts a pass down the left sideline, despite not being able to fully step into his delivery. The result is a dot throw and chunk play.

Must improve: Technical refinement

Though he has an impressive arm, Ewers’ mechanical inconsistencies will lead to sprays or misfires. At times, sloppy routes by receivers are the culprit, as they force choppy footwork in Ewers’ drops. But other times, the quarterback relies too much on his arm talent and not enough on a sound base or rhythmic delivery. Continued technical refinement should lead to fewer missed throws this upcoming season.

2024 season/2025 NFL Draft outlook

From the start, the bar for Ewers was set incredibly high — a “perfect” five-star recruiting rating; more than $1 million in NIL deals before he took a collegiate snap. For many, Ewers wasn’t given the opportunity to develop, but rather was expected to be “the guy” almost immediately.

Instead, he has been like most promising quarterbacks — flashes early with steady improvements since becoming the starter. Ewers finished last season with 69.0 percent completions, 3,479 passing yards and 27 total touchdowns as he led the Longhorns to a Big 12 title and spot in the College Football Playoff. Even with Arch Manning waiting in the wings (and Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell now in the NFL), Ewers should have the Longhorns in line for a spot in the 12-team playoff.

Aside from the numbers, Ewers made noticeable strides between what he put on tape in 2022 and 2023, and it is fair to project another jump in his development this upcoming season. It was also encouraging that he put some of his best throws on the tapes that mattered the most, including against Alabama, Oklahoma State (Big 12 Championship Game) and Washington (College Football Playoff). With his arm talent and experience (he’ll finish this season with almost 35 career starts), Ewers has first-round buzz among scouts, although his development in 2024 will ultimately determine where he is drafted in April.

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What he does best: Pocket maneuvering

Because of Texas A&M’s struggles to protect the quarterback last season, Weigman often was forced to create extra time for himself with his ability to negotiate pressure. With his instinctive feel for space, he has the presence to keep his eyes downfield while climbing or shuffling and will make accurate throws with the rush closing in on him.

The Miami tape was a perfect example of his pocket maneuvering — the Hurricanes pressured Weigman a whopping 29 times but sacked him only once. On the play above, he feels the blitzing linebacker and is able to climb with a subtle step. The center falls asleep and allows a second pressure into Weigman’s face, but he stays glued downfield and is able to fire an accurate pass because he stayed balanced in his movements.

Must improve: Body of work

Last season was expected to be Weigman’s breakout as the Aggies’ sophomore starter. He started the first four games (three wins) and showed plenty of promise — Texas A&M’s offense was averaging almost 40 points per game before Weigman suffered a September foot that injury required surgery and cut his season short. With just 251 pass attempts, Weigman staying healthy and on the field will be imperative for his NFL projection.

2024 season/2025 NFL Draft outlook

A highly sought-after recruit in both baseball and football out of high school, Weigman was one of eight five-star signees in Jimbo Fisher’s celebrated 2022 recruiting class. However, none of the eight have lived up to the sky-high expectations — and several are no longer on the Aggies’ roster. But Weigman has flashed NFL-level talent over his eight career starts in College Station, accounting for 18 touchdowns and only two interceptions.

With Fisher and Bobby Petrino out, former Kansas State quarterback and play caller Collin Klein has been tabbed to orchestrate the Aggies’ 2024 offense under new head coach Mike Elko. There is plenty of optimism in league circles that Weigman will be a riser throughout the evaluation process — as long as he stays healthy and on the field.

What he does best: High-ceiling tools

In terms of desirable tools, Allar might be the top quarterback in college football. He has outstanding size with fluid movements. He delivers with twitch, and the ball comes out quick and easy. He freely makes pre-snap adjustments at the line and processes reads quickly to move from target to target. He is a sound decision-maker and doesn’t throw to the other team (two interceptions on 449 career attempts).

Allar had more lowlights than highlights on the Ohio State tape, but this throw has stuck with me since last October. Losing late in the fourth quarter, on third-and-30, the Penn State offense needs a chunk play and Allar made a ridiculous throw on the move … that bounces off the hands of his target.

Must improve: Developing the details

Though the tools are tantalizing, there is a level of chaos to Allar’s play because he has yet to develop the finer points of the position. His eyes spend too much time lurking on targets. His timing tends to be inconsistent, especially on out throws. And most concerning is the way he deals with pressure. Allar must develop better rhythm in his drops and stay on-time with his process, which is easier said than done.

2024 season/2025 NFL Draft outlook

The top-ranked high school quarterback in the 2022 recruiting class, Allar backed up Sean Clifford as a freshman before becoming Penn State’s starter last season — a season of ups and downs. He posted respectable production (59.9 percent completions, 2,631 passing yards and 29 total touchdowns), but he struggled mightily against the best opponents on the schedule, including disappointing outings against Michigan, Ohio State and then Ole Miss in the bowl game. Ohio State (Allar’s childhood team) travels to State College this November for a showdown that likely will have strong playoff and NFL Draft implications.

It doesn’t take long to understand the hype attached to Allar. However, it is just as easy to spot his inexperience. I understand the skepticism, but I have hope for Allar’s development, because of his natural talent and the fact that his surroundings were abysmal last season — Penn State replaced its offensive coordinator midseason, its offensive line had several low moments against formidable competition and its wide receivers were below average in terms of route timing and finishing skills (28 of Allar’s incompletions last season were considered “drops,” fourth most in the FBS).

For several reasons, you can expect plenty of Will Levis comparisons for Allar throughout the process.


Preseason top 25 senior QBs

(Note: Heights and weights for senior QBs listed below are NFL verified.) 

1. Beck
2. Sanders
3. Riley Leonard, Notre Dame (6-3 3/8, 221)
4. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss (6-1 5/8, 225)
5. Cam Ward, Miami (6-1 7/8, 224)
6. Seth Henigan, Memphis (6-3 1/4, 205)
7. Graham Mertz, Florida (6-3 1/4, 214)
8. Will Howard, Ohio State (6-3 7/8, 240)
9. Donovan Smith, Houston (6-4, 237)
10. Tyler Van Dyke, Wisconsin (6-3 1/8, 229)
11. Jalon Daniels, Kansas (6-0 3/8, 219)
12. Mark Gronowski, South Dakota State (6-2 3/8, 235)
13. Kyle McCord, Syracuse (6-2 5/8, 221)
14. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon (5-10 1/2, 201)
15. Kurtis Rourke, Indiana (6-4, 222)
16. KJ Jefferson, UCF (6-3, 261)
17. Dequan Finn, Baylor (6-0 7/8, 209)
18. DJ Uiagalelei, Florida State (6-3 7/8, 255)
19. Brady Cook, Missouri (6-1 1/2, 206)
20. Cameron Rising, Utah (6-1 1/8, 218)
21. Grayson McCall, NC State (6-2 1/8, 207)
22. Garrett Greene, West Virginia (5-10 3/8, 198)
23. Gerry Bohanon, BYU (6-2, 225)
24. Hudson Card, Purdue (6-1 7/8, 203)
25. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (6-1 5/8, 207)

Preseason top 10 draft-eligible underclassmen

(Note: All measurements for underclassmen QBs listed below are estimates.) 

1. Ewers
2. Weigman
3. Allar
4. Jalen Milroe, Alabama (6-1, 223)
5. Byrum Brown, South Florida (6-3, 219)
6. Kyron Drones, Virginia Tech (6-2, 235)
7. Miller Moss, USC (6-1, 205)
8. Behren Morton, Texas Tech (6-2, 220)
9. Noah Fifita, Arizona (5-10, 205)
10. Cade Klubnik, Clemson (6-2, 202)

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photo of Shedeur Sanders: Dustin Bradford / Getty Images)

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