Swans cap squeeze to spark bidding war; why contender has ‘fallen of a cliff’ — Blowtorch

BRISBANE LIONS v MELBOURNE

Friday June 28, 7.40pm at The Gabba

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 7pm on Channel 504, with Sarah Jones, Jason Dunstall, David King, Leigh Montagna, Alastair Lynch, Jonathan Brown & Jon Ralph

Lions’ burning question: Is Chris Fagan defying the playbook with his side’s resurgence?

In what has been one of the more remarkable turns in form, the Lions are all of a sudden back dreaming big. And surprisingly, their rejuvenation looks be on the back of a rather drastic change to their game play. Speaking to AFL 360 on Wednesday night, St Kilda great Leigh Montagna looked at the change in several key statistics since Round 7 – the same time their turn started to turn for the better. “We know that their offence has been humming since Round 8 … it’s come from a long way back where they were,” Montagna said. The 287-gamer highlighted that currently, the Lions sit first in the competition for uncontested marks since Round 7, as well as time in forward half and points from turnover. In addition, Fagan has managed to take his side from a rank of 14 to 1 for points from defensive half in the same time frame. The latter stat is the most remarkable, considering they ranked 17th in the league for it before Round 8. With matches against Adelaide and West Coast after the Demons on Friday night, the Lions might not just be looking at a top eight berth with their new game plan – it could be top four.

Demons’ burning question: Is it when, or if the Melbourne offence will finally step up?

Rightfully so, pundits have been criticising the output of the Demons’ midfield of late. Christian Petracca’s season-ending injury is yet another blow to their room, but it’s no secret that beyond him, there has been little positives to speak about. Bayley Fritsch and Harrison Petty have kicked three goals between them in as many games – a seriously grave return for their two main targets. In the middle, Clayton Oliver’s lack of form has also been well documented, with Simon Goodwin needing a change in form from his engine room; otherwise, a nightmare end to 2024 could be inbound if things don’t change quick. We’ve all suspected it will change eventually, but if we don’t see a considerable change on Friday night, is there a chance it may not come this year?

NORTH MELBOURNE v WESTERN BULLDOGS

Saturday June 29, 1.45pm at Marvel Stadium

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 1:30pm on Channel 503, with Leigh Montagna, Jason Dunstall, David King, Nick Dal Santo & David Zita

Kangaroos’ burning question: Can they get first win in Melbourne after narrow misses?

Keeping this one simple. It’s been such a promising month for North Melbourne, getting its first win for the season against West Coast in Perth before narrow losses to Collingwood (by one point) and Melbourne (three points) over the last fortnight. Roos fans would be entitled to feel a little hard done by they didn’t win at least one of those last two games. And in what feels like a genuine turning point for the rebuilding club, it’s still looking to get its first win on the board in front of its home fans. Saturday presents an opportunity to not only do that, but try and stop a Western Bulldogs side with genuine momentum and looking to make a charge into the top eight. The Roos’ undersized and inexperienced defence will be tested though against the Dogs’ tall timbre attack set to be boosted by the returns of Aaron Naughton and Sam Darcy.

Bulldogs’ burning question: Do they show the same ferocity as before their bye?

The Western Bulldogs of recent weeks feels like a different team to the one we saw earlier this season. The club’s promising form in the lead into its bye has many talking about the Dogs as a genuine finals contender, if not more. But Luke Beveridge’s side has a habit of building up hope for fans and the footy world at large, only to let them down. Think losses to bottom three clubs Hawthorn and West Coast in the back-end of last season. And so how the Dogs, who have the third-best percentage in the competition (119.7) look coming off their bye will be fascinating, particularly in a game against an improved North Melbourne side that appeared so much easier a few short weeks ago. It comes as the Dogs will be at virtually full strength as they prepare to welcome back Aaron Naughton and Sam Darcy in an important four points to bank

SYDNEY SWANS v FREMANTLE

Saturday June 29, 1.45pm at the SCG

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 1pm on Channel 504, with Adam Papalia, Garry Lyon, Jack Riewoldt, Cameron Mooney & David Zita

Swans’ burning question: Can McDonald prove his worth?

The Swans have locked down most of their key players out of contract. But Logan McDonald remains unsigned beyond this season amid links to Collingwood, Hawthorn, and Sydney’s opponent this weekend, Fremantle, who’s long held interest in the West Australian key forward. It makes Saturday’s clash extra enticing, where McDonald gets an opportunity up close and personal to show his worth to Fremantle … and Sydney. The Swans’ salary cap is getting tight, plus they need significant funds to re-sign Chad Warner. So they’ll need to make a decision on whether they’re prepared to match — or get close — rival offers that will clearly succeed theirs.

Dockers’ burning question: Can they be the ones to topple a rampant Swans?

Bizarrely, still only the 17th-placed Tigers have taken down this Swans juggernaut in 2024. Geelong and Adelaide looked capable of doing so in recent week before Sydney flexed its muscles with scintillating in-game runs to show why it’s the clear No. 1 seed. The Dockers get the chance to do what no other side has done this year and beat the Swans at their SCG fortress in what could really enhance the reputation of Justin Longmuir’s side. Perhaps even more interesting is the tactics involved and if Fremantle puts specific attention into any of the Swans’ star midfield trio Chad Warner, Errol Gulden and Isaac Heeney, who’ve largely avoided tags all year long despite their red-hot form.

GOLD COAST SUNS v COLLINGWOOD

Saturday June 29, 4.35pm at People First Stadium

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 4:30pm on Channel 504, with Dwayne Russell, Jonathan Brown, Jordan Lewis, Alastair Lynch & David Zita

Suns’ burning question: Is this their Grand Final?

It’s been a promising season for Gold Coast in year one under Damien Hardwick, where it’s sat on the precipice of the top eight for the majority of the campaign. The club’s winless form on the road has been a hot topic of discussion, while shaky form in general over its last two games in losses to St Kilda and Fremantle suddenly has the Suns’ finals hopes in question. It makes Saturday home clash against Collingwood a mini ‘grand final’ of sorts for Hardwick’s side, where it can really make a statement in front of its home fans against the reigning premier. Another loss and the Suns risk falling away from the pack chasing a top eight spot. To top off the ‘grand final’ feel, the Suns will be playing in front of a rare sold-out People First Stadium; a showing of just how big this game is for Hardwick and co. Remember the Gary Ablett shoulder injury game in 2014? Same round, same opponent, and that was the last time the Suns were in the eight this deep into a season. Time to strike.

Magpies’ burning question: Will there be any growing pains reintegrating stars?

After limping to its bye with a lengthy injury list, Collingwood will be boosted by the returns of Jordan De Goey, Scott Pendlebury and Brody Mihocek in three huge ins. Unfortunately though, they’ll be without Lachie Schultz (gastro), while Isaac Quaynor (illness) is under some doubt despite being named on Thursday night. So as much as having some of the Pies’ key soldiers back will help the reigning premiers, could there be growing pains in reintegrating such names to the line-up. For in a perfect world, Collingwood, like a Sydney or Carlton, would have a settled mix over a sustained period to build continuity and chemistry. The Pies do have a good record against the Suns, having gone 9-1 against them since 2015.

ADELAIDE CROWS v GWS GIANTS

Saturday June 29, 7.30pm at Adelaide Oval

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 7:25pm on Channel 503, with Anthony Hudson, Dermott Brereton, Mark Ricciuto & David Zita

Crows’ burning question: Can they salvage something from a disappointing season?

It’s clearly been a disappointing season for Adelaide. Tipped as one of the big risers going into the campaign with finals hopes, if not more, the club has instead gone backwards to currently sit in the bottom four. With finals now off the agenda, can the Crows salvage something out of their season and learn about their list in some way. Speaking to Adelaide’s FIVEAA on Thursday, young Crow Josh Rachele was adamant they could. “We’ve got nothing to lose – it’s good to have some young boys coming in now with the likes of Billy Dowling and those guys who deserve games,” Rachele said. “For us now, it’s just finishing the year off well, and I still think we’ve got some development in us this year.” Such factors like developing youth will be important for the club’s 2025 prospects and beyond, so investing in the likes of Dowling, Riley Thilthorpe (when fit) and Dan Curtin are important – and potentially the untried Zac Taylor, Charlie Edwards and Oscar Ryan.

Giants’ burning question: Do their three key ins offset one mammoth out?

Just when the Giants were getting key players back — with Stephen Coniglio, Harry Perryman and Isaac Cumming all returning from injury this weekend — they’ve lost arguably their most important player, Sam Taylor, to a ruptured testicle. Set to miss the next few weeks, it’ll seriously test GWS’ defensive structure and system as a whole, with Taylor crucial to everything they do. It comes during a period where GWS will be hoping to get its season moving back in the right direction after losses to Sydney and Hawthorn over the last three weeks. And even though the Crows have fallen away this season, they’re never every to beat at Adelaide Oval.

GEELONG v ESSENDON

Saturday June 29, 7.30pm at the MCG

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 7:15pm on Channel 504, with Sarah Jones, Jack Riewoldt, Eddie Betts, Brad Johnson & David Zita

Cats’ burning question: Just how bad are Geelong’s defensive problems?

The answer is bad. Since Round 9, the Cats have ranked 18th in the competition in scores against per inside 50 and ranked 16th in defensive one v one wins. A key reason for that has been Tom Stewart copping extra attention from opposition teams instead of being able to play his natural interrupting game. So can they turn things around? Saints legend Leigh Montagna put it on Geelong’s other experienced defenders like Jack Henry and Zach Guthrie to step up in instances where Stewart is being nullified or forced to focus predominantly on his man instead of having the freedom to zone off and cover for others. “They’ve fallen off a cliff defensively and there’s just a real lack of care in their ability to want to defend. I think they’ve been so used to Tom Stewart covering their backsides … he can’t do everything. When he gets attention and has to beat his man, it’s time for some of these other defenders to lift. Since they haven’t had the security blanket there to bail them out, they’ve fallen apart. They’re not sure what they’re doing,” Montagna said on Fox Footy’s The First Crack.

Bombers’ burning question: Is Sam Durham Essendon’s spiritual leader?

He’s very much been the poster boy for part of Essendon’s success this year, but it isn’t just Bombers fans that Sam Durham is winning over with his purple patch of form. The 22-year-old has caught the eye of Western Bulldogs great Brad Johnson, who compared him to one of his own highly regarded teammates. “Sam Durham is one of those players who has taken their game to another level,” Johnson said on Wednesday night’s AFL 360. “He reminded me of Ryan Griffen when he came to the Western Bulldogs. He’ll defend and attack the opposition with everything he can to win the ball back.” Griffen, who played 257 games between the Bulldogs and GWS Giants, was renowned for his hard attack on the ball and strong clearance presence in his prime. And while Durham may be smaller in stature than Griffen, his stat line compares very well in many areas – if not better in others. We often associate the Bombers’ midfield with Zach Merrett, Darcy Parish and an X-factor like Jake Stringer or Archie Perkins – but is it time we finally focused more on Durham’s production in the engine room?

ST KILDA v PORT ADELAIDE

Sunday June 30, 1.10pm at Marvel Stadium

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 12:45pm on Channel 504, with Anthony Hudson, Matt Hill, Jordan Lewis, Gerard Healy, Sarah Jones & Jon Ralph

Saints’ burning question: Who does Marcus Windhager tag?

He’s claimed several scalps of late, and St Kilda young gun Marcus Windhager looks primed to take another one out this Sunday afternoon against Port Adelaide. Who he goes to remains to be seen, but there’s certainly no shortage of players to shut down from Alberton. Captain Connor Rozee, Zak Butters and Jason Horne-Francis are all leading contenders for the short straw – and even running half-back Dan Houston should Ross Lyon want to stop it coming out quickly from their attacking half. Easily wound up, Butters could be the early contender to receive close attention, given his recent lash out against Jarrod Berry after his run-with role at times last Saturday. Horne-Francis is probably the most damaging from stoppage, while Rozee when let off the chain can run riot all around the ground. Having successfully clamped Lachie Neale, Touk Miller and Harley Reid (for a half) in recent weeks, it’s inevitable one of Port’s stars will feel Windhager wrath just after 1pm on Sunday, but who?

Power’s burning question: Do they need to take a step back and simplify things?

All the heat has been on Port Adelaide across the last few weeks, and rightly so. But are Port Adelaide guilty of overcomplicating their own game to the point of self-destruction. Speaking on AFL 360, four-time premiership player Jordan Lewis and three-time Richmond premiership player Jack Riewoldt gave insight into what Ken Hinkley’s side could benefit from. “Publicly, it’s (criticism) there … I think they’re searching for their identity as a playing group,” Riewoldt said. “Back to basics – if I was inside that football club – it’s getting back to basics … you just forget sometimes about what the game is built on,” Lewis added. “They’ve been punched in the face, and now they’ve figured out they need to get it (together) quick smart.” So often a side that is associated with midfield dominance, they now rank ninth overall for total clearances in the competition, and 14th for contested possessions – an area perhaps the Power have lost their identity. It’s hard to doubt their club’s list and talent in most areas, but the execution (and to a certain extent effort) is what has let them down in recent times, especially against the top teams. So, can they find the basics again and make a late charge back into premiership contention?

RICHMOND v CARLTON

Sunday June 30, 3.20pm at the MCG