We look back on the Adelaide carnival with the top-rating performances and horses to follow.
With a few quiet weeks on the home front, we’re casting our focus back to the Adelaide carnival, which kicked off all the way back in March on Adelaide Cup day.
Top Rated
Interestingly, it was a carnival for the girls who won all four Group Ones. Not really a shock for the Oaks or Sangster, but somewhat of a shock for The Goodwood and the Derby. From a quick look, that hasn’t happened in at least 25 years.
Unfortunately, none of the Group Ones provided a performance out of the ordinary, or indeed better than the ‘ordinary’.
Benedetta (116 – Goodwood) just edged out Climbing Star (115 – Sangster) for the best rating over the carnival, while three-year-old filly Stretan Angel ran 114 in The Goodwood.
The Oaks went to Vibrant Sun who ran to 107, actually one pound down on her 108 win at Group 2 level prior, with subsequent Derby winner Coco Sun improving on her Oaks 106 to go 108 and beat Warmonger.
Whether the three-year-old stayers can measure up in the Spring with races like the Caulfield Cup mentioned high on the agenda remains to be seen, and I’d be leaning towards the negative, but we shall see.
Horses To Follow
Austmarr
It may have been forgotten about, but the performance of Austmarr in the Listed Manihi Classic (1100m) was very good, and she’s a horse that may just be able to measure up in some good sprints in the Spring.
She ran a Timeform rating of 110 that day with a dominant 3.5 length, all the way win, up from a previous peak of 102.
A rating of 110 in that race is the best since Blahnik running to 114 in 2009, and the best for a three-year-old since Great Is Great (111) in 2004.
It’s the same rating Lombardo ran to in 2021, who would then win the Group 1 The Goodwood (1200m) a few starts later, running to 117.
Other three-year-olds to hold a peak rating of 110 include King’s Gambit, Kimochi, Schwarz and Tiz Invincible. It’s only two pounds below the likes of Joliestar and three pounds below Learning To Fly.
Estriella still holds the peak for three-year-old fillies, on the Timeform scale, at 118, ahead of Stefi Magnetica at 115.
Austmarr’s win was in very good time compared to the rest of the card, and while she was disappointing next time out, she’s certainly one to keep an eye on in the Spring.
The pie in the sky for her is probably races like the Group 1 Moir Stakes (1000m) and Group 1 Manikato Stakes (1200m), but some of the Group 2 and 3 sprints at Caulfield would be very realistic goals.
Growing Empire
The second of our horses to follow is two-year-old Growing Empire who made waves with a dominant win in the Group 3 Breeders Stakes (1200m), running to a Timeform rating of 111.
Looking at the highest rated two-year-olds this season, it’s actually Coleman at 120+ that comes out on top. Lady Of Camelot went 118 to win the Golden Slipper but carried 2kg less, hence the differential.
Other juveniles to be rated 111 this season are Bodyguard and Fearless, both for the Snowden camp.
It sits just behind the likes of Bustling (112+), who has been confirmed for The Everest, Straight Charge (113), Linebacker (113) and Espionage (113).
The form behind Growing Empire worked out quite well, not just in Adelaide but also from his win prior at The Valley over Bittercreek, who then won the Group 2 Spirit Of Boom Classic (1200m) at Doomben before running (a distant) second to the 116 rated Broadsiding in the Group 1 J J Atkins (1600m).
I’m expecting Growing Empire to be a key player in the early-season three-year-old races as he looks towards the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m).
