Ratings from Saturday’s Doomben Cup and The Roses.
Bois D’Argent was a surprise winner of the Group 1 Doomben Cup (2000m), leading throughout to repel all challengers.
By Timeform’s scale, this is actually just an equal career best performance from the seven-year-old, running to 116, a rating he also ran when second to Benaud in the Wyong Cup.
He gave the winner 4kg that day for a narrow defeat which largely contributed to the high rating performance, while he did beat better horses on Saturday, the margins were compressed with 3.1 lengths covering the first nine home, and 5.6 lengths over the first 13.
It didn’t look a strong Doomben Cup going in and that view has been strong affirmed with the ratings. 116 is the equal lowest rating for a male in the past ten years, equal to Huetor’s first win in 2022 when run over 2100m at Eagle Farm.
Huetor also holds the next lowest winning rating, running to 118 last year, as did Sense Of Occasion in 2017 while Zaaki heads the list clearly at 126, his peak career rating by two pounds.
Two mares have won the race in that time with Kenedna only needing to run to 110 to win in 2019 while Streama ran to 113 in 2014.
The run of the race was clearly Fawkner Park, with enough in the sectionals to say he should’ve won the race.
His finished speed was 106% and he was the only horse to break 12 seconds for his final 200m. Of course, his racing pattern is a large part of that, but he’s run a new peak of five pounds, up from 110 in the Wagga Cup the start prior, where his sectionals earnt him the coveted Timeform +.
He can win the Q22 if they go that way and get a better tempo to run at, but if there’s new blood in that race it could be worth looking for different form lines.
The Roses
A key lead up to the Group 1 Queensland Oaks (2200m), it might be surprising to note that only three fillies have done the Roses/Oaks double- Ethereal, Scarlett Lady and Youngstar.
In a less surprising fact, subsequent Cups double winner Ethereal is the equal-highest rated winner of The Roses this century, running to 109, as did Scarlett Lady in 2011.
When Ethereal won the race in 2001, it only held listed status, before she went on to notch up her maiden Group 1 with a 115 rating in the Oaks, as did Scarlett Oak.
Youngstar, meanwhile, only ran to 105 to win the Roses and 107 to win the Oaks, and despite running well in big races, never won again.
This year, Scarlet Oak also ran to 105 to win The Roses, which is the mean winning rating for this race, also matched by the likes of Fireburn, Bohemian Lily and Arabian Gold since the race has become a Group 2.
Typically you’ll need to run around 110 to win an average Queensland Oaks, while the lowest winning rating is 105, which has occurred four times, including last year by Amokura.
With Autumn Angel likely going to the Derby over the Oaks, this is probably the form, and it wouldn’t shock if this Oaks is a messy finish with any number of fillies capable of getting the right run on the day.
