Do you hear that? Listen closely. It’s the thrum of the NBA offseason grinding into high gear. The South Beach sun is setting on the Celtics’ championship celebration. The NBA draft is less than a week away, with free agency soon to follow. The Bulls already made a highly questionable trade. It’s all happening, and the Ringer staff is here to help you prepare. Here are their answers to five of the biggest questions that will define the summer.
Who will be the biggest star to change teams this summer?
Howard Beck: Jimmy Butler will be traded. Rival executives have been buzzing about it for months, for all the obvious reasons. Butler is about to turn 35 (with a lot of hard miles and a lot of injuries), with one year left on his Heat contract, and is reportedly seeking a two-year, $113 million extension. If the Heat grant it, they’ll have little to no flexibility to add another star. And they absolutely need one.
Credit Butler for powering Miami to two Finals in five seasons. But a team built around Butler and Bam Adebayo isn’t enough to challenge the Celtics, Bucks, or Sixers in the East. Pat Riley is known for moving off his high-priced players before they fall off a cliff. And Butler at this stage would be much more valuable as a second or third option on a contender than as the top dog in Miami. This feels like the right time for a pivot.
Michael Pina: It would be sad watching Klay Thompson play basketball in another uniform, but if he’s unwilling to take a hometown discount and wants to challenge himself in a situation that better positions him to win a playoff series, there’s a decent chance the unthinkable will become reality. The Magic, 76ers, and (very scary) Thunder would all be thrilled to add one of the best shooters who’s ever lived. Assuming the price is right—that is, a short-term, huge-dollar deal—Thompson’s plug-and-play skill set would bolster any of those offenses, naturally complementing Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren. Spacing is everything; Thompson is just one year removed from taking and making more 3s than anyone in the entire league.
Rob Mahoney: Paul George. There isn’t a ton of competition in what’s ultimately a pretty muted class, but George is a catch all the same: a balanced supporting star with a lot to offer any team lucky enough to land him. The Sixers have already conveyed their side-eye intentions, but they won’t be alone; expect an active market for George that will lure him away from the Clippers, bringing about the end of a five-year era in Los Angeles with all of three playoff series wins to show for it.
Matt Dollinger: Kevin Durant. Something has got to give in Phoenix. Could it be the star who has been on four teams in the past eight years? With Donovan Mitchell potentially staying in Cleveland, there’s a ripe win-win Durant–for–Evan Mobley trade sitting right there. Cleveland would become a legit contender, and Phoenix could build around Devin Booker (27 years old) and Mobley (23). As great as Durant is, he doesn’t have time to be patient with the Suns’ shenanigans.
Tyler Parker: Mikal Bridges. His FOMO appears to be raging as three of his former Villanova teammates—Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, and Donte DiVincenzo—take turns being the toast of the town for the Knicks. Bridges must be longing to get back to feeling like he’s got a legitimate shot to compete for a title, and the Nets are not currently in any position to make that happen. Whether Leon Rose and Co. break down and overpay to get him across the bridge to Manhattan or someone else swoops in to pry him away, Bridges will be a wanted man this summer. Overtures will be made, offers discussed. The Nets need to shake things up and pick a direction. A clean start for all makes sense.
Isaac Levy-Rubinett: Darius Garland. There are two predictions baked into this answer. The first is that the Cavaliers will extend Mitchell and then grant Garland’s reported wish to be traded. The second is that a change of scenery will allow Garland to rediscover his All-Star form and then some. Still just 24, Garland is a silky scorer who exudes a feel for the game. If he’s traded to the right situation, we may look back on it as the defining move of the offseason.
Seerat Sohi: Free agency is in Paul George’s hands, and he’s podcasting like he knows it. A report from Shams that Philadelphia’s interest in George “has significantly waned in recent days” threatened to cut George’s leverage out from underneath him, but the Sixers weren’t even one of the many suitors he flirted with in an episode of Podcast P from earlier this week.
On Paolo Banchero, whose Magic have enough cap space for a max slot? “Ready for that next jump.” On Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs? He just needs a veteran presence. On whether his cohosts should keep rooting for his current employer, the Clippers? “Ehhhhhh.” He heaped praise on the Celtics, also led by two star wings, and the role that Jrue Holiday played, and he bemoaned the Clippers’ loss of glue guys like Robert Covington and Nicolas Batum. He finished the podcast by saying that his decision would be dictated by playing the right style.
Which all leads me to wonder: Is George leveraging his platform not only for money but also for an upper hand in dictating the Clippers’ other free agency decisions? Or, if he loves how the Celtics play so much, will he simply opt in to his deal and ask Los Angeles—in a moment of perfect irony—to help him engineer his way back to the Thunder, who have a similar play style?
Which NBA general manager faces the most interesting offseason?
Mahoney: Daryl Morey. Of all the major players, the Sixers have the most flexible offseason ahead of them, with enough pure cap space to chase major stars and reimagine the entire roster around Embiid and Maxey. George is the obvious candidate and fit, but if not George, maybe the Sixers will take a run at Butler. If not Butler, maybe they’ll be able to lure OG Anunoby away from the Knicks. And that’s really just the beginning. With all their salary flexibility, the Sixers (who officially have just four players under contract, or five if you count the soon-to-be-re-upped Maxey) can entertain dramatic options that other teams can’t. They also will need to stitch together an entire supporting cast on the fly, a task that could present some logistical challenges if Morey does land a third star. The Sixers are constitutionally incapable of being a boring franchise, but this summer they’ll be effectively forced into all sorts of activity.
Murdock: Tim Connelly. Following the best Timberwolves season in two decades, Connelly faces more questions than answers on how to improve his roster going forward. Karl-Anthony Towns, who did little to prove his value as a second star beside Anthony Edwards during the postseason, is slated to begin a four-year, $224 million extension. That gargantuan salary is compounded by the increased expenses of the Timberwolves roster overall, which now stands at $193 million, well over the second apron. All of which comes as owner Glen Taylor and a minority group led by Alex Rodriguez and Marc Lore fight for control of the team. Get ready for some fireworks in the coming months.
Beck: Morey. He’s star hunting, per usual, and defying just about every modern trend. In an era when stars mostly change teams via trade, Morey has gone old-school and cleared the books to chase players in free agency. And while most recent champions have been built around one or two stars, Morey is going all out to place a third star next to Embiid and Maxey.
Will the Sixers lure George out of Los Angeles? Can they poach Anunoby from New York? Would Thompson be enough to put them back in contention? If they miss on their top choices, would the Sixers sign Miles Bridges, given all his baggage? And if Morey doesn’t land any of them, then what? Embiid’s future just might hinge on what happens in the next few weeks.
Sohi: Sam Presti. The Sixers have a boatload of cap space, but the Thunder—who traded Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso on Thursday—have the ability to be aggressive in both free agency and the trade market because of their abundance of draft picks.
Dollinger: Leon Rose. After a season like the one the Knicks just had, the temptation to go all in is going to be stronger than the weed fumes outside Madison Square Garden. Watching the Celtics swing two big offseason trades then win the title isn’t going to help, either. Will New York’s front office be content to stand relatively pat and make peripheral upgrades? Or will the urge to do something very … Knicksy be too overwhelming? The Knicks have two first-round picks in next week’s draft (nos. 24 and 25), and what they do there could be a good indication of where their offseason is headed. (Lowballing and losing Anunoby would be another pretty strong indicator.)
Parker: Mike Dunleavy Jr. finds himself in a very unenviable situation. Franchise legend Klay Thompson wants to get paid again, and he’d like that pay to be handsome. But his game is not worth what it once was. The athleticism and lateral quickness are lacking now, and he will never be the defender he was during the Warriors’ golden years.
Franchise legend Draymond Green can still bring hell defensively, but his offense has continued to deteriorate, along with his self-awareness and standing in the league. Players are not afraid of the big, bad bully anymore, his bark far outweighing his bite at this point, the constant theatrics a fun suck for everyone involved. The opposing team, the Warriors themselves, the fans in the arena, and those of us watching at home are all united in the hope that Green might pop a few chill pills and accept that time is a thief.
But while Thompson and Green are franchise legends, Steph Curry is the franchise’s sun, moon, and stars. And he is still by far the team’s best player and the member of the core three that stands to age the best. Dunleavy and the Warriors organization owe it to their fans and Curry to put together a roster worthy of his considerable talents, one that gives him at least a puncher’s chance of doing some playoff damage.
Levy-Rubinett: As someone who struggles with decisions, I don’t envy Landry Fields. Atlanta has the widest swath of options of any team this offseason—and unfortunately for Fields, none are especially inviting. The Hawks have the no. 1 pick in a draft without a clear top prospect, and they have a backcourt tandem in Trae Young and Dejounte Murray that seems to have run its course. Complicating all of that are the two first-round picks and one pick swap the Hawks owe the Spurs—who, notably, need a point guard—over the next three years, which makes the prospect of a full rebuild somewhat of a nonstarter. So should Fields trade Murray and try again around Young and Jalen Johnson? (And Alex Sarr?) Or should he turn the page on a frustrating era by trading Young? I don’t know, but I’m intrigued to find out.
Pina: It has to be Morey, who has a ton of cap space and even more pressure to build a title-contending team around Embiid before the former MVP’s body suffers through even more severe, irreversible decline. Can Morey land a big free-agent fish like George, LeBron James, or Anunoby? Will he fill that room by trading for someone already under contract? Brandon Ingram and Butler are intriguing options. What about Door C, a.k.a. a contingency plan nobody sees coming? There’s also a world in which Morey runs it back with most of last season’s roster or makes a couple of marginal upgrades (think Kentavious Caldwell-Pope or Caleb Martin). Any of the above may yield a title contender. But some outcomes are certainly preferred over others.
Which under-the-radar free agent are you keeping an eye on, and why?
Parker: Lots of fun under-the-radar options. Max Christie’s restricted, and he has shown some flashes when given opportunities. Goga Bitadze is only 24 and, when healthy, played a lively brand of ball on the interior for the Magic.
But let’s go with Caleb Martin. Scrappy wings that can guard and make 3s will always be a precious commodity, and Martin has molded himself into someone that can ruin a team’s day in a lot of ways—a jack-of-many-trades barroom brawler that does not play scared. He can be a big rotation piece for the right contender, someone malleable that can plug a lot of holes, guard, and play with energy.
Pina: Caldwell-Pope is a critical starter on a championship-caliber roster. But he’s also a highly coveted, soon-to-be-expensive 31-year-old on a team that badly wants to grow organically, with a few up-and-comers waiting for a chance to replace his production. The Nuggets wouldn’t be crippled if Caldwell-Pope leaves, but their ability to win two titles in three years would take a decent-sized hit.
Mahoney: Derrick Jones Jr. We’ve talked plenty about the pair of deals the Mavs made at the trade deadline to propel themselves to the NBA Finals, and not enough about some of the preseason moves that positioned them for a run in the first place. Jones came in on a veteran minimum and wound up as an every-night starter for the Western Conference champs. His game isn’t perfect, but it’s also not easily replaceable; Dallas would lose some of its edge defensively if it didn’t have Jones around to hound opposing stars, yet retaining him may require a level of investment that just isn’t realistic. What other club stands to benefit? The best Dallas can really offer Jones is the taxpayer mid-level exception, and even that isn’t a given after Boston got away with playing Jones off the floor in the Finals. Maybe the reigning Western Conference champs will wind up going in a different direction at the 3, for better or worse.
Beck: Tyus Jones. In Memphis, he earned a reputation as the NBA’s best backup point guard—and a capable no. 1 whenever Ja Morant was out. Jones spent last season in Washington, where he affirmed his worth as an everyday starter. Will the rebuilding Wizards go all out to keep him? Or will Jones prioritize winning and find a big payday elsewhere?
He’d look great next to Banchero in Orlando, or next to Wembanyama in San Antonio. Could Golden State find a way to acquire Jones, to ease the load on Curry? Could the Lakers get him, to share playmaking with James? Jones will surely be in demand if he decides to explore his options.
Sohi: Caldwell-Pope. He’s a prime candidate to get overpaid by whoever loses out on Thompson and George. The Sixers are already interested. With up to $60 million in cap space, they could make Caldwell-Pope the kind of offer that would force the Nuggets to either catapult themselves above the second apron threshold or let him walk. The hope, if you’re a Denver fan, would be that the Nuggets grit their teeth, ink Caldwell-Pope to an extension, and endure the squeeze until it’s time to make a decision on the futures of Aaron Gordon (next offseason) and Michael Porter Jr. (two years from now).
Murdock: Caleb Martin. He’s a versatile 3-point threat who can guard multiple positions and provide quality minutes for a contender in the game’s biggest moments. He’s relatively cheap and can be had for the right price.
Dollinger: Caldwell-Pope. KCP’s decision might not seem like a huge deal, but it could have ripple effects in next year’s title race. For one, Denver cannot afford to lose him. It desperately needs shooters, and there isn’t another guy on the roster who can fill his void. KCP is reportedly going to opt out, but the Nuggets are trying to make sure he doesn’t reach the open market. If he does, the line of suitors will be long, and someone will be willing to spend for one of the best 3-and-D options on the market. If KCP leaves Denver, it’ll make it even harder for the Nuggets to make it back to the Finals, and potentially easier for a rival contender.
Levy-Rubinett: Kyle Anderson was a key change of pace for the Timberwolves last season, able to inject more frontcourt playmaking and perimeter defense into Rudy Gobert–at-center lineups. But given the price tag of the Wolves roster—not to mention the looming ownership battle—Anderson might not be long for Minnesota. If he does leave, his slo-mo orientation would represent an interesting fit on teams like Philadelphia, New York, or even OKC.
Which young team will make the leap next season?
Murdock: The Rockets. Ime Udoka had a group of young guns on the brink of the final play-in spot in the Western Conference, winning 14 of their final 21 games. Houston’s late-season surge was led by the rising Jalen Green, who averaged 24.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, and four assists over the final month of the season. That stretch aided the notion that Udoka can truly improve a team’s on-court trajectory. The Rockets have a few intriguing young pieces and a ton of cap room. But the key to their success will be the maturation of Green, whose work ethic and decision-making are still a work in progress. If he can carry over his ascent from last season, Houston could be in good shape.
Pina: The San Antonio Spurs have Wembanyama; therefore, the only answer here is the San Antonio Spurs. Last season he played on a science experiment and still nearly made an All-NBA team. With improvement from him and Devin Vassell, plus talent coming via free agency, the draft, and potentially even the trade market, do not be surprised if San Antonio makes the play-in.
Sohi: Orlando. Even if its young core—fourth youngest in the NBA last season—doesn’t improve a lick (unlikely), the current iteration of this team will benefit exponentially from the abundance of spacing available in the free agency market. My only question is whether it can circumvent the chase for older shooters like Thompson and Caldwell-Pope and instead find a player who fits its age timeline. Could Presti, now that Caruso has created an even bigger logjam at the guard position for the Thunder, be convinced to part ways with either Aaron Wiggins or Isaiah Joe in exchange for minor draft compensation?
Beck: How’s this for a lukewarm take: none. I guess it depends on how we define “the leap.” Does going from lottery to play-in team qualify? Or are we talking more of a Thunder or Timberwolves type of leap? Because that ain’t happening next season.
The bad teams in the East (from Chicago down through Detroit) are probably going to stay bad to meh for a while. Maybe the Hawks can make a leap with the right trade this summer, but that feels like a stretch.
The obvious choice in the West is Houston. But the Rockets already made a leap (from 22 wins to 41), and they could be stuck in play-in range for now, given the glut of good to great teams ahead of them. The Grizzlies were already a top-tier team before injuries knocked them into the lottery last season, so they don’t qualify for “leap” status. Maybe the Pelicans—with the right Brandon Ingram trade and some injury luck—can finally join the fray.
Dollinger: The Thunder. In 2021-22, the Thunder won 24 games. Two years ago, they won 40. This past season, they won 57. Am I suggesting that Oklahoma City will win 74 games next season and break the 2015-16 Warriors’ all-time record? No, no I am not. But it feels like they could easily level up again next season. All of their young players will benefit from another year of seasoning and some tough playoff lessons. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be an MVP candidate again. Jalen Williams and Holmgren will take significant leaps. Caruso could be a missing-piece type of complementary player. And Presti still has a full offseason to make more short- and long-term upgrades. Don’t let the ill-fated Gordon Hayward trade fool you. Presti will find a way to make the Thunder better again … and probably add five future second-round picks along the way.
Mahoney: The San Antonio Spurs. And honestly, it wouldn’t take much. Give Wembanyama even a little bit more rotation-worthy talent to work with, and the Spurs could take off sooner rather than later. We know that they have four draft picks to start with (4, 8, 35, and 48), they can carve out some pretty serious cap space if they want to make a run at a veteran, and they have a ton of future draft capital at their disposal, including all of their own future picks and a haul of firsts and swaps courtesy of the Hawks, to take a big swing on a trade. Wemby is ready for more, and the Spurs have the means. The only real question is whether San Antonio wants to accelerate so quickly, or if—as teams in this position often do—it’d rather slow play one more season to get its young franchise player the best running mate possible.
Levy-Rubinett: It won’t be a Neil Armstrong–level leap, but the Hornets are a healthy LaMelo Ball away from a real step forward. Brandon Miller came on strong down the stretch of his rookie year, there’s a lot to like about young big Mark Williams, and the players the Hornets imported from OKC at the deadline brought a much-needed stability to the back end of the rotation. Ball remains the straw that stirs the drink in Charlotte, but after a couple of injury-plagued seasons that have raised questions about his NBA future, I’m guessing he’ll remind the league why he was once viewed as a potential superstar.
Parker: Is Orlando still considered young? I know they made the playoffs this season, but they feel ready to bloom into something serious in ’24-25. Banchero is a supremo scorer of the basketball and thrower of several different kinds of smoke. Jalen Suggs plays defense like his soul is at stake, like he has extensive training in stealth, espionage, and the Japanese martial art of ninjutsu. Mark me down for Anthony Black taking another step forward, looking real capable, shining in transition. Mark me down for their front office making a move to bring in some more offensive firepower. If Franz Wagner can get his jumper back to falling like it was before last season, this team will be a load come playoff time.
What’s one made-up trade you desperately want to see?
Beck: Let’s get nuts: LeBron James to the Golden State Warriors for … whatever it takes. (I trust Mike Dunleavy Jr. and Rob Pelinka to figure out the details.) At this stage of their careers, Curry (age 36) and James (39) need each other if they want to chase another ring before retirement. The Lakers, as constructed, have no shot of contending. The Warriors, as constructed, have a thin chance, at best. But a Curry-James partnership could be electric, even at this late stage of their careers. And the Warriors are better positioned to acquire James than the Lakers are to acquire Curry.
Mahoney: Trae Young to … well, any organization that won’t enable his worst tendencies. Young is an immensely talented playmaker who has defined everything about the Hawks for the past six seasons, largely to the team’s detriment. Atlanta needs a fresh start, and Young needs a team that can better hold him to account. Maybe that’s the Spurs under Gregg Popovich, or even the Heat under Erik Spoelstra—if Miami’s front office could, uhh, expand the boundaries of Heat Culture. All of which is to say: The list of realistic suitors for Young is probably even shorter than we think, and might only be getting shorter.
Murdock: Paul George to the Mavs. In the postseason, Dallas emerged as the NBA’s best turnaround story, reaching its first Finals in 13 years on the backs of Kyrie and Luka’s scoring genius. But the Celtics exposed the rest of the roster’s deficiencies on the league’s biggest stage, highlighting the Mavs’ need for a secondary scorer on the wing. Enter George, who would fit perfectly on the Mavs roster and would promise to keep the Mavs in contention for years to come. Unfortunately, this deal has no chance of happening, largely because there’s no way the contending Clippers will help facilitate a trade of George to the Western Conference champs. Still, it’ll likely be the first trade I make when I take over the Mavs in 2K. Who says no?
Dollinger: LeBron to literally any other team. If he is content with ending his career this way, so be it. But having watched James play basketball for the last two decades, and knowing the end is near, I find myself really longing to watch him on a contender one more time. Basically, I want him as far away from D’Angelo Russell as possible. Almost any other situation would be more intriguing than running it back with the Lakers. Go try to win one with the Warriors. Or partner up with Embiid. Or mentor Wemby. Or hell, join the Knicks. LeBron has too much basketball left to just be saying crazy shit to the media during May and June. He should be competing for a title. That’s the way I want to see him go out.
Parker: Part of me wants to say Bruce Brown Jr. to the Heat because he just seems like he should have been there already. Another part of me wants to say Mikal Bridges to the Knicks because who doesn’t love friendship. But let’s go Darius Garland to the Pelicans. New Orleans is in need of a table setter, and Garland is one of the league’s sauciest when his body’s right. Him running pick-and-rolls with Zion, throwing lobs to Herb Jones in transition, finding Trey Murphy III screaming off pindowns—it makes sense.
Levy-Rubinett: I haven’t been able to quit thinking about Matt Dollinger’s trade idea from earlier in this survey: Mobley for Durant. Who says no??
Pina: Either Young or Garland for Ingram would be cool. The Pelicans need a point guard who can stretch defenses and lessen Zion Williamson’s offensive responsibility. The Cavs and Hawks could use more size and two-way versatility on the wing. It’s not a perfect star-for-star swap, but it makes sense for everyone involved.
Sohi: Mikal Bridges to Philadelphia. The Sixers don’t have enough draft assets to trump the Knicks, but they do have the cap space to absorb a bad contract in exchange for more picks they could then send to Brooklyn. Could the Wizards be enticed into letting the Sixers take Jordan Poole off their hands and return him to his rightful role as a contender’s feast-or-famine microwave scorer off the bench? What if the Nets themselves could be enticed to take an offer from Philly, centered on their pick this year and the Clippers’ unprotected 2028 pick, if the Sixers also agree to absorb the contract of [pause for effect] Ben Simmons. Double homecoming, baby!