The eight true contenders for AFL’s final four… and the clear pretenders: Power Rankings

Welcome back to the Power Rankings.

The top-eight race is completely open, with an impressive number of sides who can realistically make a prelim final. But a few sides currently in the finals places just can’t.

What are the Power Rankings? This is our attempt to rank every AFL club from best to worst. We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier and/or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

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All times are AEST.

1. SYDNEY SWANS (13-1, 148.8%)

Last week: Ranked 1st, def GWS by 27 pts

We actually saw a Swans fan getting annoyed over the weekend about people having suggested the side might be ‘due a loss’, or that a loss might be ‘good for them’. That is a very stupid thing to get annoyed about because people only say that about great footy teams. They won’t finish the year 22-1, because teams just don’t win that many games in modern footy, and even though you can look at their fixture and go ‘well who the heck are they gonna lose to?’, upsets just happen sometimes. If we had to pick their next loss, it’d be Brisbane at the Gabba in Round 19, but that’s just throwing a dart. Even a fadeout lasting a few weeks wouldn’t be too concerning – remember how wobbly Collingwood looked for a while there late in 2023? They still finished on top and it worked out OK for them.

This week: Fremantle at the SCG, Saturday 1:45pm

2. CARLTON (10-4, 114.5%)

Last week: Ranked 2nd, def Geelong by 63 pts

We need all non-Blues fans to prepare themselves for a world where their Carlton friends are getting excited about a home qualifying final, because it sure looks like it’s happening, with a gentle run home and the AFL’s most in-form ruckman powering the Baggers. Tom De Koning has genuinely emerged as a superstar over the past month, doing things ruckmen shouldn’t and usually don’t. It does raise questions over the reasonably long-term Marc Pittonet deal, but there will be few feeling sorry for the Blues if their problem is ‘this young player is way better than we thought’. We can barely imagine a world where the Blues throw away a top-four spot from here, and it feels wrong putting this much trust in this club, given… *gestures at the last 20 years*… but we have to!

This week: Richmond at the MCG, Sunday 3:20pm

3. BRISBANE LIONS (7-6-1, 122.1%)

Last week: Ranked 5th, def Port Adelaide by 79 pts

The woeful Power performance made the Lions look even better than they probably are, but either way this team has to be considered a top-four threat – which is wild given they were 2-5 and looking nowhere near it after Anzac Day. It will still take an excellent run home to earn the double chance but we have the Lions favoured in seven of their last nine games, helped by an attack that’s suddenly amongst the AFL’s best again. In fact since Round 10 it is the AFL’s best, ranking No.1 for points for, scores per inside 50, points from turnovers and defensive 50 to inside 50 transition. It helps that they’re finally kicking straight, too. Don’t let us down now that we’ve talked you up so much, Brisbane! Especially since any sort of upset loss, when they only barely have a winning record, will be very damaging.

This week: Melbourne at the Gabba, Friday 7:40pm

4. WESTERN BULLDOGS (7-7, 119.7%)

Last week: Ranked 3rd, BYE

Inactive last week, the Bulldogs need to fully capitalise on getting the bottom-placed Kangaroos twice on the run home. They would’ve been better off playing them in the first half of the season when they were terrible, and it’s now a clash of two in-form midfields, but you’d still back Luke Beveridge’s men to get the job done. We had them predicted to finish ninth in The Run Home on Sunday night but that will change as long as they keep winning, since the sides above them will inevitably stumble. The finals beckon and, as they were in 2016 and 2021, they will be a dangerous 5th-to-8th side should they get there.

This week: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:45pm

5. COLLINGWOOD (8-4-2, 107.3%)

Last week: Ranked 4th, BYE

Inactive last week, the Magpies’ bye was well-timed given their extensive injury issues, which contributed to a downturn in form – from Rounds 10 to 14, they were a bottom eight team for points allowed, points allowed from turnovers and allowing defensive 50 to inside 50 transition. Thankfully their defence has still been standing up, and the Suns’ midfield hasn’t exactly been firing either, sitting bottom four in contested possessions and clearances over the same period. Given Gold Coast is unbeaten at home this year, it’s a closer game than the ladder would suggest, and thus a very good win if the Pies get over the line.

This week: Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm

6. FREMANTLE (8-5-1, 112.3%)

Last week: Ranked 7th, def Gold Coast by 20 pts

A solid win from a solid team in a very solid position. Those extra two points from the comeback draw against Collingwood, and plenty of home games left on the docket, have the Dockers well-placed to return to the finals. And while nobody is talking about them as a top-four chance, we want to put it on the agenda. Are they one of the four best teams? Probably not, and Saturday’s trip east may expose that further. But they’re four points behind Essendon, who they play on the run home and have some pretty tricky games coming up. The Bombers are certainly vulnerable to dropping out of the top four and it won’t take much for Freo to take their place. Maybe it only means a very difficult away qualifying final, but that would be an enormous result based on expectations coming into the year. Sometimes being just consistently pretty good is enough.

This week: Sydney Swans at the SCG, Saturday 1:45pm

7. GWS GIANTS (8-6, 110.5%)

Last week: Ranked 6th, lost to Sydney by 27 pts

We can’t be too concerned about a four-goal loss to Sydney because that’s almost an above average result at the moment. It seems pretty simple for the Giants – win the contested ball and win the game. They’re third in the AFL for contested possessions, and are 7-2 when they win the count, but 1-4 when they’re beaten. The Swans got on top of them on Saturday but now we see whether the bit of momentum they were building, particularly against the Power, can continue. Adam Kingsley seemed confident on AFL 360 on Monday night they were heading in the right direction and if they’re any sort of serious, they should take care of business against the Crows – who are admittedly tougher than their ladder position suggests.

This week: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:30pm

8. HAWTHORN (7-7, 92.7%)

Last week: Ranked 8th, BYE

Inactive last week, the Hawks will hope the bye didn’t halt their momentum as they attempt to keep in touch with the top eight. We don’t want to understate how difficult it’ll still be for them to play finals – even winning six of their last nine, and getting to 13 wins, may not be enough because of their poor percentage. Nobody has ever missed the eight with 13 wins but it’s bound to happen some time with the addition of the 23rd game. West Coast in the west is a banana peel game, but get through it and suddenly the Round 17 game against Geelong in Geelong is even bigger. How sweet it would be for Hawks fans to see their side recording an ultra-rare win down the highway, ruining their great rival’s season in the process…

This week: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium, Sunday 4:40pm

9. ESSENDON (9-4-1, 102.7%)

Last week: Ranked 10th, def West Coast by 30 pts

Purely based on team quality, the Bombers have the hardest remaining draw in the AFL, though that’s softened somewhat by the fact they only have one more interstate trip (Round 24 vs Brisbane, and they should’ve clinched finals by then anyway). All of that makes Saturday night fascinating, because you get the feeling the Cats won’t play finals if they lose, and the Bombers have a very poor record in recent years against Chris Scott’s side. Though it’s worth noting their problem is usually scoring – the Bombers put up 54, 42, 57, 72 and 45 points in losses since 2019 – and Geelong’s defence is very poor right now. Exploit that, and it’s another step towards cementing September action. For what it’s worth the Bombers are the last of the eight teams we can realistically see making a prelim final from this point (the Hawks just feel a bit too far back, plus they’re surely not ready).

This week: Geelong at the MCG, Saturday 7:30pm

10. PORT ADELAIDE (8-6, 101%)

Last week: Ranked 9th, lost to Brisbane by 79 pts

If you thought the pressure on Ken Hinkley was intense this week, imagine how it’ll be if the Power lose to a bottom-six Saints side on Sunday. It’s entirely within the realms of possibility given Ross Lyon’s team has been quite a bit better over the last month, whereas Port… haven’t. They will not be as bad as they were against Brisbane again, but their form has been sliding for longer than just a week, with the Power 18th for contested possessions since Round 10, 16th for inside 50s and 14th for points from turnover. Basically they’re not even playing the one game style we know they can play, and while we’ve been critical of the recruits in defence, it’s hardly their fault when the midfield applies no pressure and the opposition forwards are given silver service. Relatively important game!

This week: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 1:10pm

11. GEELONG (8-6, 102.9%)

Last week: Ranked 11th, lost to Carlton by 63 pts

The next two weeks probably decide the Cats’ season. Their defence is horrendous right now but if it can hold up against the Bombers and/or the Hawks in a week’s time, they remain a chance to play finals. Keep in mind their last two losses were to Sydney and Carlton, the agreed-upon best two teams in the comp, and they were reasonably competitive with the Swans (on the road, too). We’re not completely panicking but completely understand why people are tipping the Cats to miss the top eight. As discussed in The Run Home, they’ve got four very winnable games over the final five rounds, but the next month is pretty tough. Beat at least one of Essendon or Hawthorn, and they can certainly still make an elimination final – which is where the most optimistic analysts had them pre-season anyway?

This week: Essendon at the MCG, Saturday 7:30pm

12. MELBOURNE (8-6, 100.4%)

Last week: Ranked 12th, def North Melbourne by 3 pts

The funny thing is, the AFL does the whole ‘floating fixture’ gimmick which plenty of fans dislike with the idea of putting the best games in the primetime slots. And then we get this week, with the ailing Demons threatening to be smashed by the red-hot Lions on Friday night. After all Brisbane smashed Melbourne when the teams met earlier this year, and that was when Chris Fagan’s side couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn by foot; now they’re sharpshooters, while the Dees are effectively down two of their best three players with Christian Petracca injured and Clayton Oliver arguably the most out-of-form player in the comp. We are hoping for the Demons’ sake it doesn’t get too ugly, but…

This week: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, Friday 7:40pm

13. GOLD COAST SUNS (7-7, 105.5%)

Last week: Ranked 13th, lost to Fremantle by 20 pts

So here we go. The Suns’ run home is pretty simple – they’re playing bad teams away, and good teams at home, so they have to do something they’re not used to doing if they’re gonna play finals. And Saturday will be almost exactly 10 years to the day of that Collingwood-Gold Coast game, in the equivalent round and with the Suns finally back in the top eight mix. That day, Gary Ablett’s shoulder injury cost them a chance of a first finals berth, and they haven’t really been close since… until now. We’re pretty sure Brent Macaffer won’t be there this time, and it’s worth remembering the Suns actually went on to win that game. If they can do the same again, they will remain in the finals hunt.

This week: Collingwood at People First Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm

14. ADELAIDE CROWS (4-9-1, 102.6%)

Last week: Ranked 14th, BYE

Inactive last week and only mathematically in the finals race, the Crows are already in the role of spoiler for the rest of this season. They’ll claim a scalp or two at home over the final nine rounds and ruin someone’s finals hopes – perhaps the Giants this week, or the Hawks, Dogs or Power after that – but there is not much more to be gained from this season, other than some sort of preparation for 2025.

This week: GWS Giants at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:30pm

15. ST KILDA (5-9, 92.2%)

Last week: Ranked 15th, BYE

Inactive last week, the Saints have had a pretty strong June (well, compared to the rest of their season), winning twice and coming much closer to beating Brisbane in Brisbane than anyone would’ve expected. Their season fell apart ages ago but they get a chance to inflict some real pain on Port Adelaide this week, since a loss would turn up the heat on Ken Hinkley’s seat. And at the same time, if the Saints lose, the story will be about the Power “winning for Ken”, or finding form when they needed to, or whatever. It’s basically a free throw at the stumps.

This week: Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 1:10pm

16. RICHMOND (2-12, 63.9%)

Last week: Ranked 16th, BYE

Inactive last week, do the Tigers already need to put Tom Lynch in cotton wool for the rest of the year? A new soft tissue setback suffered in the loss to Hawthorn has the club eyeing a Round 18 return, but could you realistically argue it’s not worth risking him in an already lost season? Having said that it’s not like Richmond are gonna be contenders next year either, so you can’t just not play him until the list is good again – right? Maybe they should check whether carbonite freezing technology has advanced at all since it was tested on that smuggler…

This week: Carlton at the MCG, Sunday 3:20pm

17. WEST COAST EAGLES (3-11, 72.9%)

Last week: Ranked 17th, lost to Essendon by 30 pts

Seasons that are purely about the future are always tricky, but last weekend the Eagles struck a great balance of competitiveness and experimentation. They sent Liam Ryan in for 15 centre bounces and even more surprisingly Tyler Brockman in for 14, yet the side still won the first possession (+12) and clearance (+9) counts, with inaccuracy (5.10 from clearances) cruelling the upset bid. It’s another tick for this rebuild and stopping the Hawks’ run would further prove the Eagles are closing the gap between themselves and the top eight contenders.

This week: Hawthorn at Optus Stadium, Sunday 4:40pm

18. NORTH MELBOURNE (1-13, 63.4%)

Last week: Ranked 18th, lost to Melbourne by 3 pts

They really should’ve won three in a row, having been dudded late against Collingwood and then actually beating Melbourne on expected score. Even against a weakened Demons midfield, to win the key stats including contested possession and territory was another tick for this rebuild, which is suddenly coming along nicely. Keep in mind this is basically Alastair Clarkson’s first real season in charge, given the impact of the Hawthorn saga on him and the 2023 campaign, so it makes sense they’re finally clicking after playing under him for an extended period.

This week: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:45pm