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Things are quickly looking dreary for Dallas in the NBA Finals. Can Luka Doncic and Co. make this a series again? Or does Boston hold all the answers?
It’d be a slight exaggeration to say that the Dallas Mavericks don’t have any offensive counters, defensive adjustments, or soluble responses for the many, many dilemmas this Boston Celtics team has thrust on them. But only a slight one.
Dallas lost again on Sunday night, 105-98, to fall down 0-2 in the NBA Finals. The final score is one that should provide some hope, though. That’s almost a two-possession game! But the reality here is that after eight quarters, this series has been played on Boston’s terms, with the Celtics able to maintain their season-long identity. It’s Dallas that has had to shift further and further away from what got it to the Finals. It’s Dallas that is getting manipulated over and over again. Both ends are uncomfortable for the Mavericks, while so much of these games has been elementary for this Celtics team, which hasn’t come close to playing its best basketball.
It’s the Celtics who continue to limit the Mavericks’ lobs and corner 3s. Coming into the Finals, the Mavs had launched 32 more corner 3s than any other team this postseason and hit 4.6 of their 11.6 attempts per game (that’s a hot 39.4 percent). In the Finals, they’re 2-for-8, total, through two games. Not good.
It’s the Celtics who look comfortable, consistently gashing Dallas’s switch-heavy defense off the dribble, getting downhill, and either finishing at the rim or sparking their wildfire offense with a pass out to the open man. “The way their defense is set up and how much they’re loading up and converging at the rim, it just puts us in positions to attack and find the easy kick-out reads and just to keep the ball popping and things like that, so we can get good to great shots on each and every possession,” Jayson Tatum said.
It’s the Celtics who have endured a lengthy shooting slump from Tatum, whose aggressiveness and ability to punish rotations continues to unlock great looks for everybody else. It’s impossible to say that Tatum—who shot 6-of-22 from the field but had 12 assists—had a bad Game 2 and then turn around to salute Jrue Holiday or Derrick White, who thrived off Tatum’s brilliant decision-making against a defense that routinely loaded up to slow him down. He had seven assists in the second quarter alone, which is the most any player has had in a Finals quarter since John Stockton’s eight in 1998. This man is the primary catalyst for Boston’s elite offense. Shotmaking is only part of it.
It’s the Mavericks who are struggling to protect the paint as well as they have for months. Coming into the Finals, their playoff opponents were shooting just 59.6 percent in the restricted area on 23.3 attempts per game. In Game 2, Boston converted 74.1 percent of its 27 shots in the restricted area. Some of those came in transition and off turnovers, but Boston’s aggression in the paint also helps explain its 19 made free throws.
Curiously, it’s the Mavericks who came out of Game 2 liking how they played defense. “I thought our defense was really, really good,” Jason Kidd said. “We’ve just got to take care of the ball. There’s too many turnovers that gave them points, and then … we’ve got to score the ball, and right now, we’ve got to find someone to join Luka and Ky in that scoring category.”
In reality, their effort on the perimeter didn’t come close to resembling that of the unit that neutered three 50-win offenses on its way to this round. There were several breakdowns all over the floor that Boston’s shooters didn’t capitalize on. The Celtics still took 39 3s in Game 2, which was 13 more than the Mavericks.
It’s Dallas that can’t muster anything in transition, which was a transformational area of its success all season. The Mavericks can’t win a game, let alone four, if they stay bogged down in half-court offense against Boston’s hounding, switch-happy defense, which has done a terrific job of forcing tough midrange shots off the dribble.
The bad news is that the Mavericks are up against a great transition defense that was awesome during the regular season and has been even better in these playoffs. The Mavericks scored just seven fast-break points in Game 2 and just six in Game 1. Before the Finals, their postseason low was eight. “They have guys back-loaded. They have a lot of guys that are athletic and running back in transition,” Kyrie Irving said. “You saw when P.J. [Washington] had an opportunity to cut it to 5, you saw Derrick White contest him at the rim.”
Dallas has to get the same Dereck Lively II who could once keep the ball in front of him, who wasn’t over-caffeinated on defense, and who was able to dominate the offensive glass. The bad news is that Boston prioritizes the boards and ranks third this postseason in defensive rebound rate.
If I were Kidd, I might show my team film from the Thunder and Timberwolves series before Game 3: defensive possessions when the Mavericks packed the paint, contested shots, and ran hot shooters off the line. Boston is not Oklahoma City or Minnesota, of course. Everyone can shoot 3s. Everyone can put it on the deck and make a play. Aggressively taking the rim away could lead to devastating complications. But switching most screens and then watching Tatum or Jaylen Brown or Holiday drive down their throat has created a predicament where the Mavs are giving up 3s and easy looks around the rim.
Every possession is a strain. All that scrambling takes a physical and mental toll. Maybe simplifying the game plan is the way forward. Or maybe they’ve already played every logical card. The decision to go at Tatum in Game 2 and make him defend more ball screens than he probably ever has before didn’t really work. Tatum is (1) an awesome defender and (2) well conditioned. Doing so was a clear attempt to get back to the formula they used earlier in the playoffs, which disregarded any particular matchup.
“We were doing a lot of elephant hunting out there,” Lively said on Saturday, explaining why Dallas’s offense was so stagnant in Game 1. “And that’s not the game we play. … No matter who’s on the floor and who’s guarding who, we’re gonna go out there and play the game of basketball.”
After Game 2, Luka’s recipe for a comeback was simple, fair, and, in all likelihood, not enough. “We’ve got to make shots. We’ve got to make free throws and less turnovers,” Doncic said. “Those three things I think are the key for a win.”
The Mavericks are talented enough to win a game or two, but they need perfection on their side to make this a series. They need Kristaps Porzingis’s calf to keep him on the sideline. They need Irving to hit even more incredibly difficult shots off the bounce than he’s been able to so far. They need, as Doncic said, to hit pretty much every open shot Boston gives them.
Most important, Dallas needs to start resembling the team it had been for the past six weeks. Joe Mazzulla and the Celtics have executed a game plan that’s made that next to impossible, though. The reality is that the Mavericks’ margin for error right now is so, so slim against the Celtics, who have won nine straight games, had a historically impressive playoff net rating, and look like one of the most complete collections of talent in NBA history.