Winter racing at Caulfield with some handy fields on the nine-race card.
Back to the traditional nine-race card in Melbourne on the first day of Winter and the field quality looks to have held up nicely, with a particularly enticing Bm100 in Race 7.
Keen to be with St Lawrence there who we backed in Sydney first-up at $15, the horse running well for third behind Waterford and beaten just over a length. He ran to 101 with Timeform there which is up to what he did fresh last time in.
He then carried 61kg in a Bm78 and won easily at Caulfield, running to 109 on the same scale. His SP profile and record have always promised a group level horse and this looks an ideal race for him second up.
He stays in a Bm100 here with added fitness and looks to get every chance, with D Lane taking the ride from barrier three. He should land just off a genuine speed and only has to take natural improvement fitness-wise to be winning.
The early price (around $2.30) was a bit skinny but he’s drifted out and approaching $3 here which I think is acceptable. This is a good field but he’s got the ratings to match any of them and gets weight off some of the more established types.
For the value play, we’ll be hoping they can run on out wider because there are a pair of backmarkers in the feature sprint, Race 6, that possess the ratings necessary to be winning this.
Curran especially looks a big price, despite the fact he really struggles to win. I’d have preferred he drawn out a bit and would absolutely love if they made a jockey change but regardless, first-up last preparation he ran the fastest last 400/200m of the meeting behind Asfoora in the Group 2 Schllaci Stakes (1100m) here when fifth.
He was only a length behind Uncommon James and Chain Of Lightning on that day which reads very well for an open sprint where he’s only 3kg above the minimum.
He should get a solid pace to run out without being absolutely breackneck, which can often see him get too far back, and while he’s a risky play, he’s at a fair price in a winnable race.
Extremely Lucky is the other backmarker that can be flashing home, drawn to get out wide. He beat a handy field at his first run back for Clarken and O’Shea before finding The Goodwood too hot last time. He’s capable of some booming splits on his day and should get the race shape to suit.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet of the day: Race 7 #7 St Lawrence at $2.90
Each-way play: Race 6 #2 Curran at $15/4
