The last few years have seen some incredible comeback stories across the NFL. In 2022 it was Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith sending a message to everyone who wrote him off. A year later, Joe Flacco got up off the couch to lead the Cleveland Browns and had everyone rethinking his legacy.
Both players won the Associated Press Comeback Player of the Year Award and both would likely have been ineligible to do so thanks to a new clarification in the voting process
On Tuesday, the AP provided clear criteria for voting on the award that’s sure to have a massive impact.
According to Pro Football Talk’s Michael David Smith, past poor performance is no longer a barometer of a player’s worthiness for the award:
“The spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year Award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season,” voters for the award will be told as their guidance for voting on the award, according to AP senior NFL writer Rob Maaddi, who oversees All-Pro and NFL awards voting.
The change is coming a bit too late for anyone who hammered the Damar Hamlin’s odds last year, but there are a number of would-be contenders for the award in 2024 we can go ahead and cross off the list now including Justin Fields (+3500), Sam Darnold (+3000) and Mac Jones (+12500).
Instead, players at the top of the board like like Aaron Rodgers (+130), Joe Burrow (+240), Kirk Cousins (+500) and Anthony Richardson (+700) appear to have a bit more value now with each returning to field after missing significant time last year.
While Kyler Murray (+3000) returned from a 2022 injury in the middle of last season, Maaddi told For The Win voting the Arizona Cardinals QB for CPOY in 2024 would not violate the spirit of the award.
At BetMGM, Murray is far and away the biggest liability to win Comeback Player of the Year with 14.3 percent of all bets and 25 percent of the overall handle. Both numbers top the CPOY market.
Darnold has 4.9 percent of all bets and 4.5 percent of the handle while Russell Wilson (currently off the board) has 9.3 percent of all bets and 7.8 percent of the handle.
As bettors gear up to throw down some preseason futures, just make sure to keep in mind what truly qualifies as a comeback this season.
Now if only the voters could figure out what “MVP” actually means that would be tremendous.
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