The Run Home after Round 15: Where every AFL club will finish on the ladder, and who’ll play finals

With the bye rounds done and dusted, we can see September on the horizon. There’s just nine rounds left of the 2024 season – so who’s playing finals?

This is The Run Home, where Foxfooty.com.au analyses every club’s remaining fixture and tries to predict how the rest of the year will play out.

Which teams could take advantage of an easy draw to climb the ladder, and which clubs could tumble down the table based on a tough run of games?

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How does The Run Home work?

The below projections predict each game on a percentage chance basis, and then use those odds to give each team a projected win total.

For example, we might say two teams have a 50 per cent chance each of winning a very even game. So they’d each get 0.5 projected wins for their total. If it’s an almost certain blowout, it might be 90-10, so the favourite gets 0.9 projected wins. That’s why almost all teams have a projection that’s not a round number.

It’s all about probability, and it’s more accurate than trying to tip wins and losses, because no-one can tip nine every round.

It also means the predicted win totals are naturally conservative at the top, and optimistic at the bottom – and it’s hard for teams to catch up to sides who are multiple wins ahead of them (which is a fair reflection of reality). If you’re able to win a bunch of 50-50s, you’ll make these projections look silly, but that’s not something anyone can predict anyway.

Think of the projected win totals as the average result if you played the season out 100 times.

PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Sydney Swans vs Essendon at the SCG

First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Fremantle vs Geelong at Optus Stadium

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Brisbane Lions vs GWS Giants at the Gabba

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Carlton vs Collingwood at the MCG

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

1. Sydney Swans (19.15 projected wins)

2. Carlton (15.75)

3. Collingwood (14.05)

4. Essendon (13.95)

5. Fremantle (13.55)

6. Brisbane Lions (13)

7. GWS Giants (12.9)

8. Geelong (12.85)

9. Western Bulldogs (12.6)

10. Port Adelaide (12.35)

11. Melbourne (12.1)

12. Gold Coast Suns (11.8)

13. Hawthorn (11.75)

14. St Kilda (8.85)

15. Adelaide Crows (8.5)

16. West Coast Eagles (5.8)

17. Richmond (5.1)

18. North Melbourne (2.95)

Below, all 18 clubs are listed and analysed in the current ladder order.

Remaining fixture difficulty is calculated using the average percentage of remaining opponents. This naturally advantages teams with a strong percentage themselves (because they can’t play themselves) and vice versa, and does not take into account the location of the game, but is a basic metric of how tough the remaining fixture is.

1. SYDNEY SWANS (13-1, 148.8%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Fremantle at the SCG

Round 17: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 18: North Melbourne at the SCG

Round 19: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Round 20: Western Bulldogs at the SCG

Round 21: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 22: Collingwood at the SCG

Round 23: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Adelaide Crows at the SCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-easiest

We don’t want to shock anyone with a wild prediction, but the Swans are playing finals. They would need to drop three or four of their remaining games just to miss the minor premiership; that’s not impossible, since they’ve got road games against Brisbane, Port Adelaide and Essendon, plus a return game against the Bulldogs (who pushed them harder than most) and a fascinating Collingwood clash in Round 22. But they would need to lose all of those, and have multiple teams below them go almost unbeaten, to not host a qualifying final. The Swans are as well-placed for a premiership at this point of the season as we’ve seen in years; but the randomness of footy means we would still pick the field over them if we had to pick a premier. (No team would be more likely than the field until at least preliminary final week, and even then…)

Fox Footy’s projection: 19.15 wins, finishing 1st

2. CARLTON (10-4, 114.5%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Richmond at the MCG

Round 17: GWS Giants at ENGIE Stadium

Round 18: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 19: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium

Round 21: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 22: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 23: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 24: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: Easiest

It’s worth noting the Blues were 10-4 in 2022, and it turned out they weren’t safe. But they’ve built a lot of trust in the AFL world over the past 24 months, and Michael Voss’ side is clearly shaping as the main threat to Sydney. We would be staggered if the Blues missed the eight from here, so it’s really a question of locking up a top-four spot. Even if they stumble against teams like the Giants, Bulldogs and Magpies, and somehow haven’t clinched a spot in the eight by Round 22, it’s a pretty cruisy last three weeks; the Hawks might finally have lost their momentum by then, and the Eagles and Saints will be clear underdogs. The Blues may only need 14 wins to clinch a top-four spot but 15 or 16 should be the goal. In a big-picture sense we suspect sides like the Magpies and Bombers won’t mind the Blues finishing second, since it’d mean a qualifying final at the MCG rather than interstate, but that’s obviously not Carlton’s concern. They just want a first top-four finish since 2000.

Fox Footy’s projection: 15.75 wins, finishing 2nd

3. ESSENDON (9-4-1, 102.7%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Geelong at the MCG

Round 17: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 18: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 19: Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 21: Fremantle at the MCG

Round 22: Gold Coast Suns at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Remaining fixture difficulty: Hardest

The win over the Eagles should mean the Bombers have done enough to play finals. Should. Obviously there are no sure things, but there’s a big difference between needing to win four of your last nine games (as Essendon does) and needing to win six of nine (as sides like Brisbane and the Bulldogs do). And this is where the draw against Collingwood is so much better than if they’d lost, because it negates any concerns about percentage; no team has ever missed the top eight with 13 wins, but there’s a chance it happens this year, while 13 and a half wins will certainly be enough. The Bombers’ remaining draw purely in terms of opposition quality is difficult, but having played all but one of their interstate games already, they get the Crows, Dockers, Suns and Swans in Melbourne instead of away. They may not beat Sydney either way but the location should swing the other three contests, and get Brad Scott’s side into September. If they beat Geelong next week (doing plenty of damage to the Cats’ hopes of holding onto a spot in the eight) it is hard to imagine Essendon missing out.

Fox Footy’s projection: 13.95 wins, finishing 4th

4. COLLINGWOOD (8-4-2, 107.3%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium

Round 17: Essendon at the MCG

Round 18: Geelong at the MCG

Round 19: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 20: Richmond at the MCG

Round 21: Carlton at the MCG

Round 22: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Round 23: Brisbane Lions at the MCG

Round 24: Melbourne at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-hardest

There were plenty of concerns after their 0-3 start, but when all of those stats came out about 0-3 teams rarely contending for a premiership, the unwritten part was “but if they only lose one of their next 11 games, they’ll be fine”. Lo and behold, the Magpies have lost just once since Round 2, and last week’s scare against North Melbourne aside are pretty clearly a premiership contender once more. It helps when you’ve got seven of your last nine games at home, though there are no easybeats on this fixture (even the Tigers are tougher than the ladder suggests), and the two away trips are bloody difficult – the Suns are unbeaten at home, and the Swans are the Swans. We still favour Craig McRae’s men to clinch a top-four spot and they’ll be hoping to get into that 2nd vs 3rd qualifying final (which could be at the MCG even if they’re not ‘hosting’ it) so they have the best chance possible at a home prelim (and to avoid Sydney in said game). A Carlton-Collingwood qualifying final, with the winner maybe facing Essendon in a prelim, might break the MCG…

Fox Footy’s projection: 14.05 wins, finishing 3rd

5. FREMANTLE (8-5-1, 112.3%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Round 17: Richmond at Optus Stadium

Round 18: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium

Round 19: Melbourne at Optus Stadium

Round 20: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 21: Essendon at the MCG

Round 22: Geelong at Optus Stadium

Round 23: GWS Giants at ENGIE Stadium

Round 24: Port Adelaide at Optus Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-easiest

After holding the fort against the Suns, the Dockers really should be playing finals from here. The midfield and defence are good enough – maybe not to contend for the flag, but hey, why not? As this club knows from its experience in Geelong 11 years ago, it only takes one good day on qualifying final weekend to set up a home prelim, and they’re right in the mix for the top four. We’re getting a bit ahead of ourselves but, needing just five more wins to clinch a spot in September, we’re feeling pretty confident about Justin Longmuir’s side. After all they really should win all of their remaining home games – they just demolished the Dees a few weeks back, they seem to always beat Geelong, and Port aren’t exactly brilliant travellers either. Throw in winnable away games against Hawthorn and Essendon too. Even if the Dockers finish on 12 and a half wins that could be enough for finals footy – it was last year for Sydney.

Fox Footy’s projection: 13.55 wins, finishing 5th

6. GWS GIANTS (8-6, 110.5%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 17: Carlton at ENGIE Stadium

Round 18: Richmond at the MCG

Round 19: Gold Coast Suns at ENGIE Stadium

Round 20: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 21: Hawthorn at Manuka Oval

Round 22: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Round 23: Fremantle at ENGIE Stadium

Round 24: Western Bulldogs at Mars Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-hardest

Despite their worrying slide, which has seen the former ladder leaders drop six of their last nine games, the Giants are still right in the thick of the finals race. With their percentage it would be surprising, though not unthinkable, for them to miss the eight with 13 wins so that’s the target. Holding the fort at home against the Suns and Dockers, plus beating the Demons, Crows and Tigers away, looks like the simplest path to September – plus Carlton and Hawthorn at home are both gettable. In fact if you believe a few experts, who think the Giants are slowly building back to their best and trying to find form at the end of the season (rather than mid-year), they could charge into the top four. Heck, could we even see a repeat of 2016, when Sydney finished on top but was upset by the Giants in their qualifying final? The glass-half-empty view would be that the Giants have rarely looked like the side that started 5-0, and just a couple of bad upsets in this tight finals race could cost them September footy. There’s a wide range of possibilities here; if you came from the future and told us GWS won the flag, we wouldn’t be shocked, nor if you told us they’d missed the eight altogether.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.9 wins, finishing 7th

7. GEELONG (8-6, 102.9%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Essendon at the MCG

Round 17: Hawthorn at GMHBA Stadium

Round 18: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 19: Western Bulldogs at GMHBA Stadium

Round 20: North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena

Round 21: Adelaide Crows at GMHBA Stadium

Round 22: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 23: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: West Coast Eagles at GMHBA Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-easiest

Teams like the Cats are why we run the numbers. It’s hard to feel confident in a side that’s won just one of its last seven games, and looked awful on Friday night. But that 7-0 start just set them up so nicely – and look at their remaining draw. Remember how the Cats finished 12th last year? This is the easier fixture in effect, with remaining home games against Adelaide and West Coast, plus North Melbourne for a second time and struggling St Kilda at Marvel. Even this weaker version of Geelong should be favoured in all four, and that gets them to 12 wins, so they just need a 13th… and that’s where we start to struggle. They should win at least one of their next four – with how our projections work, we’d need to have them a worse-than-25% chance to win each game to expect an 0-4 run – but if the win doesn’t come against a similarly-questionably-resumed Essendon or a young-and-travelling-down-the-highway Hawthorn, they’ll struggle more against the Pies and Dogs. (And they seemingly always lose to Freo.) So it may be as simple as if they beat one of the Bombers or Hawks, they should play finals, and if they lose to both, they shouldn’t.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.85 wins, finishing 8th

8. PORT ADELAIDE (8-6, 101%)

Remaining games

Round 16: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 17: Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval

Round 18: Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium

Round 19: Richmond at Adelaide Oval

Round 20: Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Round 21: Sydney Swans at Adelaide Oval

Round 22: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 23: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 24: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-hardest

The Power were pretty safely ensconced in the eight a month ago, but three straight losses – all to good teams, but losses nonetheless – have them on the outside looking in. They have beaten a handful of top-eight teams, but when the second-best scalp on your resume is either Freo by three points at home or this version of Geelong, you’re probably not doing enough. They need at least five wins from these last nine rounds and pretty much none of their remaining games are sure things – not even the Saints away or Richmond at home (given the Tigers’ win at Adelaide Oval a few weeks back). Plus with how pedestrian their percentage is, they’d be at risk of missing out on 13 wins anyway. At their best the Power are good enough to win enough matches from here; let’s say they beat St Kilda, Gold Coast, Richmond, Melbourne and Adelaide. Maybe that’s enough for an elimination final. But does that even mean anything for this team? Does that change anyone’s opinion on the list or on Ken Hinkley? Unless they really go on a run and beat someone like Carlton or Sydney, no-one will trust them come finals time anyway.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.35 wins, finishing 10th

9. MELBOURNE (8-6, 100.4%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Round 17: West Coast Eagles at the MCG

Round 18: Essendon at the MCG

Round 19: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 20: GWS Giants at the MCG

Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: Port Adelaide at the MCG

Round 23: Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium

Round 24: Collingwood at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-hardest

Safe to say the Demons’ season is hanging in the balance, with two of their big three missing (Petracca through injury, Oliver through form) and growing evidence they’re nothing like the perennial contender of the last few seasons. Despite Saturday night’s remarkably underwhelming win over bottom side North, they remain in the mix – for now at least. Their remaining draw is difficult for a good team, never mind the pedestrian version of the 2021 premiers we’re seeing right now. After all the Demons have to again play four teams who they’ve already lost to – Brisbane and Fremantle away likely to be even tougher tests this time, plus West Coast’s trip east and the season-ender against Collingwood. They should at least beat the Eagles at the ‘G, but we could easily see the Dees losing five of their next six, and at that point they’d be pretty much done. We’re projecting them for just over 12 wins but that would be an accomplishment with how they’ve looked recently – something has to change dramatically for them to play finals, and they could easily finish as low as 13th, which would be a disastrous season.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.1 wins, finishing 11th

10. BRISBANE LIONS (7-6-1, 122.1%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Melbourne at the Gabba

Round 17: Adelaide Crows at the Gabba

Round 18: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 19: Sydney Swans at the Gabba

Round 20: Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium

Round 21: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: GWS Giants at the Gabba

Round 23: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 24: Essendon at the Gabba

Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-hardest

They certainly haven’t made things easy on themselves but we think the Lions are, for the first time in months, more likely than not to make the eight. The smashing of Port Adelaide gives us much more confidence in the underlying numbers which suggest this is one of the four best teams in the AFL right now, and a top-four berth is remarkably still gettable. Six wins from their last nine games would clinch a spot in September, and we have the Lions favoured in seven of their last nine. So if they get the job done in those games, that’s 14 and a half wins… mayyyyyybe that’s enough this year, though nobody has made the top four without 15+ since 2010. It’s reachable, at least, and even if that means a tough qualifying final in Sydney or Melbourne it’s way better than the alternative.

Fox Footy’s projection: 13 wins, finishing 6th

11. WESTERN BULLDOGS (7-7, 119.7%)

Remaining games

Round 16: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 17: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 18: Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Round 19: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Round 20: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Round 21: Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 23: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: GWS Giants at Mars Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-easiest

After recovering from 3-5, only dropping games to the in-form Swans and Lions since, the Bulldogs have at least given themselves a shot at making the eight – and likely keeping Luke Beveridge in his job. We’re pretty confident in saying they’re one of the eight best teams, and in fact the underlying numbers suggest they’re top-four calibre. And if we were doing a ladder predictor purely by tipping each game, we’d probably have the Dogs in the finals; but it matters that they’re on seven wins, and so many other teams are already on eight. So how do they get to the magical 13 wins? Well, playing North twice helps (though this isn’t the North of the first half of the season). We would also favour the Dogs over the Demons, Cats, Power and Crows (even though the latter two are away). That would be the six wins they need – but knocking off the Giants, Blues and/or (dare we say) Swans would give them some wiggle room. And that wiggle room is important… because it’s hard to forget last year, when they just had to beat one of Hawthorn or West Coast to play finals, and couldn’t. Beating the Power and Cats will be particularly critical. [One additional note – if our predictions are spot on, and there’s a massive tie on 12 wins with sides like Geelong, Port Adelaide and Melbourne, the Dogs have the clear percentage advantage. But we order teams on projected wins regardless of their percentage, because being on 12.9 vs being on 12.6 suggests the former team is more likely to reach 13 wins, which is more important.]

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.6 wins, finishing 9th

12. GOLD COAST SUNS (7-7, 105.5%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Collingwood at People First Stadium

Round 17: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 18: Port Adelaide at People First Stadium

Round 19: GWS Giants at ENGIE Stadium

Round 20: Brisbane Lions at People First Stadium

Round 21: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 22: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Melbourne at People First Stadium

Round 24: Richmond at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-easiest

We‘ll make it simple: the Suns won’t make the eight if they remain winless on the road. They still haven’t won away since Round 9 last year, and it’s just getting ridiculous at this point. The good news is they’ve still got games against the bottom three teams on the road – and if they can’t beat at least two of North Melbourne, West Coast and Richmond away, they don’t deserve to play finals anyway. Let’s say they win all three; then they just need three more wins to give themselves a chance, since nobody has ever missed the top eight with 13 wins. Can they just hold the fort at home against three of the Magpies, Power, Lions and Demons? They’re at least a chance, right? Plus they get Essendon again, who they already beat a few weeks back, though that game was closer to a Bombers win than it seemed (and playing it at Marvel makes it much harder). Let’s put it this way – if they’re 10-9 after Round 20, they’re a chance, because they can win three of their last four.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.8 wins, finishing 12th

13. HAWTHORN (7-7, 92.7%)

Remaining games

Round 16: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 17: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Round 18: Fremantle at UTAS Stadium

Round 19: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 20: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 21: GWS Giants at Manuka Oval

Round 22: Carlton at the MCG

Round 23: Richmond at the MCG

Round 24: North Melbourne at UTAS Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-easiest

To make the finals after an 0-5 start would be simply extraordinary, but the Hawks have clawed their way into the fight. Their poor percentage is a major problem here; even if they win six of their last nine games, there’s a solid chance another 13-win team keeps them out of the eight. So you’re looking at a 7-2 run to end the season just to be safe. Those wins are attainable but require a level of consistency which we wouldn’t expect from such an inexperienced group – and if they’re playing finals, they’ll have basically been at a top-four level for four months, which is crazy. They can certainly beat the Kangaroos, Tigers, Eagles and Crows (though the latter two being away makes them harder). That’s four. So if they get the job done there, they probably need to beat three of Geelong in Geelong, Freo in Tassie, Collingwood, GWS in Canberra and/or Carlton. Again – doable! But they do not have much room for error. Side quest alert: they’ll likely ruin the Cats’ season if they beat them in Round 17, which we suspect Hawks fans would enjoy.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.75 wins, finishing 13th

14. ST KILDA (5-9, 92.2%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium

Round 17: Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium

Round 18: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 19: West Coast Eagles at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 21: Brisbane Lions at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: Richmond at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Geelong at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-hardest

Since this is an article about each team’s finals chances, we have to at least entertain the Saints’ hopes for now. With a pedestrian percentage they would almost certainly need to win eight of their last nine to have any chance of back-to-back finals berths. And if they were in the position they were this time last year, we’d be optimistic, because having nine of your last 10 games at home is absolutely wild! But no, the Saints are nowhere near good enough in 2024, and all eyes have already turned to the trade period.

Fox Footy’s projection: 8.85 wins, finishing 14th

15. ADELAIDE CROWS (4-9-1, 102.6%)

Remaining games

Round 16: GWS Giants at Adelaide Oval

Round 17: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Round 18: St Kilda at Adelaide Oval

Round 19: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Hawthorn at Adelaide Oval

Round 21: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Round 22: Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval

Round 23: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 24: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-hardest

The Crows would need to win at least eight of their last nine games to play finals. With away games against Brisbane, Geelong and Sydney to come, plus plenty more tricky tests, even the most ardent Adelaide backer has to admit their season is over. They’ve been unfortunate in some regards, and aren’t as bad as their bottom-four ladder position suggests, but 2024 has clearly become a rebuilding year when it was supposed to be the season that cements them as contenders again. Matthew Nicks will be under intense pressure heading into 2025.

Fox Footy’s projection: 8.5 wins, finishing 15th

16. WEST COAST EAGLES (3-11, 72.9%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Hawthorn at Optus Stadium

Round 17: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 18: Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium

Round 19: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 21: Gold Coast Suns at Optus Stadium

Round 22: North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena

Round 23: Carlton at Optus Stadium

Round 24: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-easiest

The Eagles’ season is already a success, when you consider the growth they’ve shown. And with five home games remaining plus a chance to get revenge on North Melbourne, there are still wins up for grabs as well. In a best-case scenario they could escape the bottom four, and ruin the season of a couple of top-eight contenders – maybe even Fremantle? – though we would argue it’s better for their long-term prospects if they finish as low as possible (but without being terrible like the last two years).

Fox Footy’s projection: 5.8 wins, finishing 16th

17. RICHMOND (2-12, 63.9%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Carlton at the MCG

Round 17: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 18: GWS Giants at the MCG

Round 19: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 20: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 21: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 24: Gold Coast Suns at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-easiest

Unless something utterly ridiculous happens above them, even finishing on a 2014-style 9-0 run wouldn’t get Richmond into the finals. Assuming they beat the Kangaroos they should avoid their first wooden spoon since 2007. If they don’t beat them, though…

Fox Footy’s projection: 5.1 wins, finishing 17th

18. NORTH MELBOURNE (1-13, 63.4%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 17: Gold Coast Suns at Marvel Stadium

Round 18: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Round 19: Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Geelong at Blundstone Arena

Round 21: Richmond at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: West Coast Eagles at Blundstone Arena

Round 23: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-hardest

Unless the Kangaroos win eight of these nine games, they will fall behind the horrific 1990-1994 Sydney sides’ record of 20 wins in five years, and have produced the worst half-decade of football in the AFL era. A more realistic goal would be avoiding a fifth consecutive bottom-two finish – they would almost certainly need to beat both Richmond and West Coast, and probably pinch another win elsewhere too. And honestly, with what they’ve shown over the last three weeks, we cannot count them out.

Fox Footy’s projection: 2.95 wins, finishing 18th