The Run Home after Round 16: Shock top-four favourite emerges as round of upsets sparks ladder chaos

A surprising Saturday, which began and ended with upsets, has seen a few major changes to the top eight race – which keeps getting tighter.

This is The Run Home, where Foxfooty.com.au analyses every club’s remaining fixture and tries to predict how the rest of the year will play out.

Which teams could take advantage of an easy draw to climb the ladder, and which clubs could tumble down the table based on a tough run of games?

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How does The Run Home work?

The below projections predict each game on a percentage chance basis, and then use those odds to give each team a projected win total.

For example, we might say two teams have a 50 per cent chance each of winning a very even game. So they’d each get 0.5 projected wins for their total. If it’s an almost certain blowout, it might be 90-10, so the favourite gets 0.9 projected wins. That’s why almost all teams have a projection that’s not a round number.

It’s all about probability, and it’s more accurate than trying to tip wins and losses, because no-one can tip nine every round.

It also means the predicted win totals are naturally conservative at the top, and optimistic at the bottom – and it’s hard for teams to catch up to sides who are multiple wins ahead of them (which is a fair reflection of reality). If you’re able to win a bunch of 50-50s, you’ll make these projections look silly, but that’s not something anyone can predict anyway.

Think of the projected win totals as the average result if you played the season out 100 times.

PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Sydney Swans vs Collingwood at the SCG

First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide at the Gabba

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Geelong vs Essendon at the MCG

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Carlton vs Fremantle at the MCG

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

1. Sydney Swans (19.15 projected wins)

2. Carlton (16.1)

3. Fremantle (14.45)

4. Collingwood (13.5)

5. Brisbane Lions (13.45)

6. Geelong (13.4)

7. Essendon (13.35)

8. Port Adelaide (12.75)

9. Western Bulldogs (12.7)

10. Gold Coast Suns (12.3)

11. GWS Giants (12.2)

12. Hawthorn (12.1)

13. Melbourne (12)

14. Adelaide Crows (9)

15. St Kilda (8.35)

16. West Coast Eagles (5.15)

17. Richmond (4.8)

18. North Melbourne (2.95)

Below, all 18 clubs are listed and analysed in the current ladder order.

Remaining fixture difficulty is calculated using the average percentage of remaining opponents. This naturally advantages teams with a strong percentage themselves (because they can’t play themselves) and vice versa, and does not take into account the location of the game, but is a basic metric of how tough the remaining fixture is.

1. SYDNEY SWANS (13-2, 144.2%)

Remaining games

Round 17: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 18: North Melbourne at the SCG

Round 19: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Round 20: Western Bulldogs at the SCG

Round 21: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 22: Collingwood at the SCG

Round 23: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Adelaide Crows at the SCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-easiest

When people say “that’s the loss they needed to have” for a ladder leader, they’re thinking of a game like Saturday’s, where Sydney probably deserved to win – they comfortably got over the line on expected score, and you’d usually expect Logan McDonald to at least kick a point on the post-siren shot he missed. Either way it’s only a big deal if the Swans keep losing, and that seems unlikely. They still have a four-win buffer between themselves and third place, so they would need a catastrophic run to miss a home qualifying final, and while Carlton has closed the gap slightly it’s still three wins they would need to make up (because of percentage). The Swans are completely and utterly fine.

Fox Footy’s projection: 18.45 wins, finishing 1st

2. CARLTON (11-4, 118.5%)

Remaining games

Round 17: GWS Giants at ENGIE Stadium

Round 18: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 19: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium

Round 21: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 22: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 23: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 24: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-easiest

It wasn’t as easy as expected in the early going against the Tigers, but a third-quarter blitz saw the Blues cement their claim on a top-two finish – in an almost perfect weekend thanks to Essendon and Collingwood’s losses. If they’re going to stumble it would be over the next two weeks, because the Giants and Bulldogs are both playing for their seasons, but as long as they’re still inside the top four after Round 21, they should have the double chance in September. And if they win their next three they will be very hard to catch for second.

Fox Footy’s projection: 16.1 wins, finishing 2nd

3. FREMANTLE (9-5-1, 111.3%)

Remaining games

Round 17: Richmond at Optus Stadium

Round 18: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium

Round 19: Melbourne at Optus Stadium

Round 20: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 21: Essendon at the MCG

Round 22: Geelong at Optus Stadium

Round 23: GWS Giants at ENGIE Stadium

Round 24: Port Adelaide at Optus Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-easiest

We mentioned the idea of top-four Fremantle in our Power Rankings last week, but we didn’t think we’d be seriously considering the idea just a few days later. Saturday was basically perfect for the men in purple, with the upset over Sydney followed by losses for Collingwood and Essendon. It leaves them third on the ladder and, thanks to their kind remaining draw, has us tipping them for a qualifying final. Freo will be favourites in all five of their remaining games in Perth, while none of the Hawks, Bombers or Giants are unbeatable on the road (especially when you consider who the Dockers just beat). Typically the bar for a top-four berth is 15 wins – so everyone from here down would need to win at least six of their last eight. That’s not easy, and it’s why the Dockers could well be safe on 14 and a half (especially with their reasonably good percentage). Especially if they beat Essendon in Round 21. Let’s say they beat the Tigers, Demons, Eagles, Bombers and Cats from here… we reckon that might be enough for fourth.

Fox Footy’s projection: 14.45 wins, finishing 3rd

4. ESSENDON (9-5-1, 99%)

Remaining games

Round 17: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 18: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 19: Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 21: Fremantle at the MCG

Round 22: Gold Coast Suns at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Remaining fixture difficulty: Hardest

Not a disastrous loss for the Bombers but it especially hurts dropping four points to a direct ladder rival. Yes, we’re now tipping Brad Scott’s men for seventh, but you can pretty much ignore that. The tiny gap of 0.15 wins between Collingwood, Geelong, Brisbane and Essendon between fourth and seventh is basically nothing; we would effectively consider them all tied in the race for fourth behind Sydney, Carlton and Fremantle. Now that’s not ideal for the Dons but they’ll have plenty of chances to make amends with all of their remaining games in Melbourne. (They have the hardest fixture purely based on the teams they play, not where they play them.) Even if they lose to the Magpies next week, they can very realistically win the next five… and they may need to, with a brutal last fortnight. The top four is still reachable – beating Freo in Round 21 would be a huge help – but they will have to win at least five of their last eight, especially with their awful percentage doing them no favours in ties against either Fremantle or Brisbane. As long as they win three more they should at least play finals.

Fox Footy’s projection: 13.35 wins, finishing 7th

5. GEELONG (9-6, 106.2%)

Remaining games

Round 17: Hawthorn at GMHBA Stadium

Round 18: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 19: Western Bulldogs at GMHBA Stadium

Round 20: North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena

Round 21: Adelaide Crows at GMHBA Stadium

Round 22: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 23: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: West Coast Eagles at GMHBA Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-easiest

We wrote last week that “it may be as simple as if they beat one of the Bombers or Hawks, they should play finals, and if they lose to both, they shouldn’t”. Well, they beat one. The remarkably close race for the eight means that win over Essendon actually puts Geelong into the top four conversation, though looking at their actual remaining games, we find it hard to get them there. You typically need 15 wins to make the top four, and we can certainly get the Cats to 13 (beating North, Adelaide, St Kilda and West Coast), possibly 14 (most likely adding a win over Hawthorn), but are they really good enough to win all of those and upset one of the Magpies, Bulldogs or Dockers? Seems unlikely. That’s not the conversation we should be having – instead, it’s that the Cats are well-placed to make the eight from here, especially if they win one more over the next three weeks. If they drop all three to sit 9-9, they’ll have to do everything right in the final five weeks, and you want as much margin for error as possible at this time of year. Saturday night was really important but there’s still work to do.

Fox Footy’s projection: 13.4 wins, finishing 6th

6. COLLINGWOOD (8-5-2, 105.8%)

Remaining games

Round 17: Essendon at the MCG

Round 18: Geelong at the MCG

Round 19: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 20: Richmond at the MCG

Round 21: Carlton at the MCG

Round 22: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Round 23: Brisbane Lions at the MCG

Round 24: Melbourne at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-hardest

As mentioned in the Essendon capsule, we consider the Magpies, Cats, Lions and Bombers in a virtual four-way tie for fourth, with Collingwood just getting over the line because we trust them the most. Losing to Gold Coast away isn’t even a major upset, and the Magpies can really sure up their spot over the next two weeks because they play two of their direct ladder rivals. They will be favoured against both Essendon and Geelong, and beating both will give them a huge boost in the hunt for a qualifying final spot. We still have the Pies favourites in six of their remaining eight games, the brutal Round 21-22 double-header excepted, and so their next month should build the runway for defending the premiership. Heck, win their next four and that’s probably a finals spot locked up. But dropping any of their next four will start to make things shaky; they’re not home yet.

Fox Footy’s projection: 13.5 wins, finishing 4th

7. PORT ADELAIDE (9-6, 101%)

Remaining games

Round 17: Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval

Round 18: Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium

Round 19: Richmond at Adelaide Oval

Round 20: Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Round 21: Sydney Swans at Adelaide Oval

Round 22: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 23: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 24: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-hardest

That projection of 12.75 wins still feels really optimistic, but at least the Power have kept themselves in the finals conversation by knocking off the Saints. We’ll put it this way – they’re on nine wins with a pedestrian percentage, so they’ll need four more to be certain of finals footy. Which four teams on that draw above are they beating? We’ll give them wins over Richmond and Adelaide to start (and neither of those are sure things)… but then where are the other two coming from? Are they upsetting the Bulldogs and/or Swans at home? And if not, are they winning two tough away games against the Suns, Blues, Demons and/or Dockers? We have the Power as underdogs in all six games, and while the odds are they’d win at least one or two (thus the 12.75-win projection), it’s very hard to trust Ken Hinkley’s side. Beat the Bulldogs and we will reconsider.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.75 wins, finishing 8th

8. BRISBANE LIONS (8-6-1, 121%)

Remaining games

Round 17: Adelaide Crows at the Gabba

Round 18: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 19: Sydney Swans at the Gabba

Round 20: Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium

Round 21: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: GWS Giants at the Gabba

Round 23: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 24: Essendon at the Gabba

Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-hardest

The margins are just so fine this season; it was almost a disaster for the Lions, but they survived the Melbourne upset bid and now find themselves in a virtual tie for fourth (in our projections, anyway). Their defensive efforts in their last two home games have been a bit concerning but if last year’s runners-up can just take care of business in their next two games, it will be pretty hard to dislodge them from the top eight. Four wins in their last eight games should get them into September, while six might be enough for a top-four berth; the latter is still realistic and should be considered the goal. Though Friday night showed just how quickly things that look fine can all fall apart.

Fox Footy’s projection: 13.45 wins, finishing 5th

9. WESTERN BULLDOGS (8-7, 120.2%)

Remaining games

Round 17: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 18: Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Round 19: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Round 20: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Round 21: Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 23: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: GWS Giants at Mars Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-hardest

Taking care of business against North Melbourne doesn’t do a lot for the Bulldogs’ projected win total, because we were basically assuming they’d win anyway, whereas Port Adelaide (who now sit above them in projected eighth) got a crucial win over the Saints. It makes next week even bigger, with the loser’s chances of making the eight being slashed. It also comes ahead of a brutal triple-header for the Dogs; the Blues and Swans are clearly the class of the competition right now, and we’re pretty much ignoring the win in Geelong late last year because the circumstances meant the hosts were barely trying, so that’s still a hoodoo. So if the Dogs do slip up against Ken Hinkley’s side, it would leave them needing to pull upsets and/or run the table in the last month to have a real shot at September.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.7 wins, finishing 9th

10. GWS GIANTS (8-7, 108.4%)

Remaining games

Round 17: Carlton at ENGIE Stadium

Round 18: Richmond at the MCG

Round 19: Gold Coast Suns at ENGIE Stadium

Round 20: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 21: Hawthorn at Manuka Oval

Round 22: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Round 23: Fremantle at ENGIE Stadium

Round 24: Western Bulldogs at Mars Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-hardest

The Giants had to be the biggest losers of the weekend – Adelaide away wasn’t an easy game, and we had it close to 50-50 in our projections, but with Sam Taylor’s absence sorely felt it leaves the orange team in a tricky spot. To put it simply, they need to win five of their last eight games to play finals, and they don’t really have any easy ones left. Other than playing Richmond away (which is more dangerous than the ladder suggests), they have four games against sides above them, plus three against the trio directly below them. It means they control their fate but it also makes every loss even more painful. Their easiest path to the magic number of 13 is probably beating the Tigers, Suns, Demons, Hawks and Dockers, and maybe they can upset Carlton at home, but that’s minimal margin for error. If they don’t win two of their next three they’ll be in real trouble.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.2 wins, finishing 11th

11. GOLD COAST SUNS (8-7, 106%)

Remaining games

Round 17: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 18: Port Adelaide at People First Stadium

Round 19: GWS Giants at ENGIE Stadium

Round 20: Brisbane Lions at People First Stadium

Round 21: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 22: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Melbourne at People First Stadium

Round 24: Richmond at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: Easiest

The Suns are a top-six team at home and a bottom-six team away, so it’s not a massive shock that they downed Collingwood. And it well and truly keeps them in the finals race, with five more wins likely (but not definitely) enough to earn them a first September berth. As we’ve discussed for weeks, they need to start winning games on the road, and playing the Kangaroos – who are improved, but still the bottom team – is the perfect opportunity. Their most realistic path to the finals involves beating all three of North, West Coast and Richmond away, plus two of Brisbane, Port Adelaide and Melbourne at home (probably the latter two). You can see why the Collingwood win is so helpful here; now they don’t have to win all of those games to reach the magic number of 13. So if they’re 10-7 in a fortnight’s time, they’ll be in a great spot – they would surely still be alive heading into Round 23, which is all you can really ask for. If they slip up over the next two weeks they’re in trouble again.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.3 wins, finishing 10th

12. MELBOURNE (8-7, 99.9%)

Remaining games

Round 17: West Coast Eagles at the MCG

Round 18: Essendon at the MCG

Round 19: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 20: GWS Giants at the MCG

Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: Port Adelaide at the MCG

Round 23: Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium

Round 24: Collingwood at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-easiest

They were oh so close to a miraculous upset win that would’ve revived their season. Instead a young side fell apart late – what on earth was that entry inside 50 in the final minute?! – and they’re still on the outside looking in. Nearly knocking off Brisbane at least gives us faith there’s still a good team here, they’re going to need to show it consistently, probably needing five wins and maybe six to play finals (because their percentage is rubbish). At a minimum the Demons need to beat the Eagles and Bombers, because there are losses left on this fixture with dangerous trips to Perth and Gold Coast plus the Magpies and Bulldogs to come. If they’re 10-7 in a fortnight’s time we will reconsider their chances.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12 wins, finishing 13th

13. HAWTHORN (8-7, 97.9%)

Remaining games

Round 17: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Round 18: Fremantle at UTAS Stadium

Round 19: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 20: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 21: GWS Giants at Manuka Oval

Round 22: Carlton at the MCG

Round 23: Richmond at the MCG

Round 24: North Melbourne at UTAS Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-easiest

Not only did they beat the Eagles in the west to keep in touch with the top eight, they started to build their percentage to a more competitive level. We could still imagine any of them, Melbourne or Port Adelaide becoming the first team to miss the eight with 13 wins if things fall a certain way… but the fact they’re seriously in the September conversation is crazy by itself. The next two weeks feel incredibly important, with a pair of 50-50 games against Geelong in Geelong, and then Freo in Launceston. After all if they’re 10-7 with games against Adelaide, Richmond and North left, they’d be in a hell of a position. But if they have to beat one or two of Collingwood, GWS (away) or Carlton as well, that’s a much bigger ask. Hawthorn fans always love beating Geelong but this time it’d be extra sweet.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.1 wins, finishing 12th

THE NON-CONTENDERS

14. ADELAIDE CROWS (5-9-1, 103.8%)

Remaining games

Round 17: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Round 18: St Kilda at Adelaide Oval

Round 19: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Hawthorn at Adelaide Oval

Round 21: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Round 22: Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval

Round 23: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 24: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-hardest

Great win, and Izak Rankine is becoming a genuine superstar, but they would still need to win seven of their last eight to have any shot at the finals. Let’s see them beat Brisbane in Brisbane first.

Fox Footy’s projection: 9 wins, finishing 14th

15. ST KILDA (5-10, 92.5%)

Remaining games

Round 17: Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium

Round 18: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 19: West Coast Eagles at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 21: Brisbane Lions at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: Richmond at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Geelong at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-hardest

The loss to the Power removes even the fringe possibility of St Kilda storming into September.

Fox Footy’s projection: 8.35 wins, finishing 15th

16. WEST COAST EAGLES (3-12, 70.4%)

Remaining games

Round 17: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 18: Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium

Round 19: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 21: Gold Coast Suns at Optus Stadium

Round 22: North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena

Round 23: Carlton at Optus Stadium

Round 24: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-easiest

Fox Footy’s projection: 5.15 wins, finishing 16th

17. RICHMOND (2-13, 63%)

Remaining games

Round 17: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 18: GWS Giants at the MCG

Round 19: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 20: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 21: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 24: Gold Coast Suns at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-easiest

Fox Footy’s projection: 4.8 wins, finishing 17th

18. NORTH MELBOURNE (1-14, 64.1%)

Remaining games

Round 17: Gold Coast Suns at Marvel Stadium

Round 18: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Round 19: Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Geelong at Blundstone Arena

Round 21: Richmond at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: West Coast Eagles at Blundstone Arena

Round 23: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-hardest

Fox Footy’s projection: 2.95 wins, finishing 18th