The Run Home after Round 17: Rising contenders stopped in their tracks as AFL finals race shaken up again

It was the weekend where several chasing contenders fell away from the pack – so who’s still in the mix, and who’s in big trouble?

This is The Run Home, where Foxfooty.com.au analyses every club’s remaining fixture and tries to predict how the rest of the year will play out.

Which teams could take advantage of an easy draw to climb the ladder, and which clubs could tumble down the table based on a tough run of games?

Watch every game of every round this Toyota AFL Premiership Season LIVE with no ad-breaks during play on Kayo. New to Kayo? Start your free trial today >

How does The Run Home work?

The below projections predict each game on a percentage chance basis, and then use those odds to give each team a projected win total.

For example, we might say two teams have a 50 per cent chance each of winning a very even game. So they’d each get 0.5 projected wins for their total. If it’s an almost certain blowout, it might be 90-10, so the favourite gets 0.9 projected wins. That’s why almost all teams have a projection that’s not a round number.

It’s all about probability, and it’s more accurate than trying to tip wins and losses, because no-one can tip nine every round.

It also means the predicted win totals are naturally conservative at the top, and optimistic at the bottom – and it’s hard for teams to catch up to sides who are multiple wins ahead of them (which is a fair reflection of reality). If you’re able to win a bunch of 50-50s, you’ll make these projections look silly, but that’s not something anyone can predict anyway.

Think of the projected win totals as the average result if you played the season out 100 times.

PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Sydney Swans vs Geelong at the SCG

First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Essendon vs Collingwood at the MCG

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide at the Gabba

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Carlton vs Fremantle at the MCG

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

1. Sydney Swans (17.8 projected wins)

2. Carlton (15.65)

3. Fremantle (14.65)

4. Geelong (14)

5. Essendon (13.95)

6. Brisbane Lions (13.8)

7. Port Adelaide (13.3)

8. Collingwood (12.75)

9. GWS Giants (12.65)

10. Melbourne (12.25)

11. Western Bulldogs (12.1)

12. Hawthorn (11.6)

13. Gold Coast Suns (11.5)

14. St Kilda (9.05)

15. Adelaide Crows (8.7)

16. West Coast Eagles (4.9)

17. Richmond (4.45)

18. North Melbourne (3.9)

Below, all 18 clubs are listed and analysed in the current ladder order.

Remaining fixture difficulty is calculated using the average percentage of remaining opponents. This naturally advantages teams with a strong percentage themselves (because they can’t play themselves) and vice versa, and does not take into account the location of the game, but is a basic metric of how tough the remaining fixture is.

1. SYDNEY SWANS (13-3, 140.8%)

Remaining games

Round 18: North Melbourne at the SCG

Round 19: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Round 20: Western Bulldogs at the SCG

Round 21: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 22: Collingwood at the SCG

Round 23: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Adelaide Crows at the SCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-easiest

Weird result, but it’s another loss the Swans could afford, thanks to their old friends GWS knocking off Carlton. They still hold a virtual three-game lead at the top of the table and while two straight losses have shown they’re not some runaway, super-obvious No.1 seed, they’re still the scariest team in it when they’re in full flight. And it would take some sort of collapse for them to miss a home qualifying final.

Fox Footy’s projection: 17.8 wins, finishing 1st

2. CARLTON (11-5, 116.1%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 19: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium

Round 21: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 22: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 23: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 24: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: Easiest

They wouldn’t want to do that too many more times, with Fremantle continuing to rise, making the threat of an Optus Stadium qualifying final more real. We’re still relatively confident the Blues are the second-best team in it, it’s just that this season is close enough that you can lose an interstate trip to a fellow top-eight side. (In fact, most seasons are. It wasn’t a massive upset.) With just one more interstate trip and four games left against the bottom six, they’ve still got a good grip on second though we wouldn’t be surprised if they dropped down before having to rise back up – Carlton could certainly lose to two of the Bulldogs, Power and Magpies, while the Dockers and Bombers just below them have a pretty kind few weeks before facing each other. Just don’t panic if Carlton is third or fourth in a few weeks’ time; they should come home with a wet sail, whereas Fremantle (at GWS, vs Port) and Essendon (vs Sydney, at Brisbane) end with a tricky fortnight.

Fox Footy’s projection: 15.65 wins, finishing 2nd

3. FREMANTLE (10-5-1, 115.1%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium

Round 19: Melbourne at Optus Stadium

Round 20: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 21: Essendon at the MCG

Round 22: Geelong at Optus Stadium

Round 23: GWS Giants at ENGIE Stadium

Round 24: Port Adelaide at Optus Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-easiest

As discussed in Carlton’s capsule above, we still have confidence the Blues will finish second, but you look at the ladder and a two-point gap… and Fremantle hosting a qualifying final is certainly a live possibility. Their remaining draw isn’t as easy as Carlton’s, but it’s easier than Essendon’s, which is a big reason why we’re still tipping Freo for third (also because we think they’re worse than Carlton but better than Essendon). But you could argue the Dockers should be favoured in their next five, plus Round 24 against the Power, so if the Blues stumble against teams like the Bulldogs and Collingwood, second is very gettable. In a worst-case scenario we could see Freo losing to a rebounding Hawthorn next week, then maybe splitting the two home games and falling to Essendon away, which would probably see them miss the top four. But they should definitely play finals from here, and they should at least be in the hunt for a double chance heading into the final fortnight.

Fox Footy’s projection: 14.65 wins, finishing 3rd

4. ESSENDON (10-5-1, 99.9%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 19: Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 21: Fremantle at the MCG

Round 22: Gold Coast Suns at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Remaining fixture difficulty: Hardest

Hard to overstate the importance of Friday night’s win; not only did it show Essendon (and the likes of Zach Merrett) at their best, it gives them valuable breathing room and sets them up for a continued push at the top four. Their next five games were going to be critical either way, because of how hard the final fortnight is, but now it’s not quite as much of a panic situation. Two more wins might be enough for finals footy – though you’d rather win three to be sure. And surely these Bombers can beat three of the Demons, Saints, Crows, Dockers and Suns, particularly when the latter three are coming from interstate? We would be pretty surprised if Essendon missed the eight from here, and if they run the table over their next five games (which is very plausible), they’ll almost certainly be playing in a qualifying final. That’s two chances to break that drought.

Fox Footy’s projection: 13.95 wins, finishing 5th

5. GEELONG (10-6, 109.7%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 19: Western Bulldogs at GMHBA Stadium

Round 20: North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena

Round 21: Adelaide Crows at GMHBA Stadium

Round 22: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 23: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: West Coast Eagles at GMHBA Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-easiest

We wrote two weeks ago about how the Cats’ season would be defined by the following fortnight, against Essendon and Hawthorn, with at least one win needed to stay in the thick of the finals race. Well, they won both games instead, and the chasing pack fell back this past weekend, so you have to be happy about where you’re sitting if you’re Chris Scott. That very winnable quartet of games against the Kangaroos, Crows, Saints and Eagles should get the Cats into the finals – they would need to lose two to be in real strife – while the games against the Magpies, Bulldogs and Freo will dictate whether a top-four finish is possible. So the next two weeks is… well, it’s not a free hit, because you never want to waste an opportunity to bank wins. But losing to the Pies and Dogs would not be disastrous by any stretch; they would simply be 10-8 with at least four games left where they’d be favourites. It would be pretty damn surprising, though not implausible, for the Cats to miss the eight now.

Fox Footy’s projection: 14 wins, finishing 4th

6. PORT ADELAIDE (10-6, 104.8%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium

Round 19: Richmond at Adelaide Oval

Round 20: Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Round 21: Sydney Swans at Adelaide Oval

Round 22: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 23: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 24: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-hardest

Saturday was a proper eight-pointer and, combined with some helpful other results, really gives the Power some breathing room in the race for finals. We talked last week about looking at their fixture and struggling to find a 13th win for them; that might’ve been it. (We also talked about not agreeing with our numbers… that’s why we use numbers rather than just our gut.) The next month is tough but they’ve bought themselves time, and built a gap over the chasing pack (which for the most part stumbled this weekend anyway). Hold the fort against Richmond and Adelaide – the latter no sure thing, given recent Showdowns – and then the Power just need to find one more win elsewhere, most likely over Gold Coast or Melbourne. In fact as long as they beat the Tigers, they should either be in the eight or just outside it heading into Round 22, with control over their destiny. If they’re on 12-plus wins at that stage, that’s just even more control.

Fox Footy’s projection: 13.3 wins, finishing 7th

7. BRISBANE LIONS (9-6-1, 120.4%)

Remaining games

Round 18: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 19: Sydney Swans at the Gabba

Round 20: Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium

Round 21: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: GWS Giants at the Gabba

Round 23: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 24: Essendon at the Gabba

Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-hardest

They’re still not dominating teams at home like you’d expect, but the Lions are getting the wins they need, with their fifth on the trot coming over the Crows. It has them right in the mix for a top-four berth – it’s arguably a three-way fight for fourth between Brisbane, Essendon and Geelong, and we know which member of that trio we would trust more. With three road games in their next four weeks, they’re certainly still at risk of missing the eight, but they should at least reach 12 and a half wins and the ceiling is much higher.

Fox Footy’s projection: 13.8 wins, finishing 6th

8. GWS GIANTS (9-7, 108.6%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Richmond at the MCG

Round 19: Gold Coast Suns at ENGIE Stadium

Round 20: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 21: Hawthorn at Manuka Oval

Round 22: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Round 23: Fremantle at ENGIE Stadium

Round 24: Western Bulldogs at Mars Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-hardest

They were the big losers last week, and the big winners this week; how quickly things change. The brilliant comeback over (and then holding-off of) Carlton propels the Giants right back into the thick of the top eight hunt, ahead of losers the Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Gold Coast. And what do you know, the Giants play all three of those teams over the final seven weeks! So those three games are critical, not just because they’re winnable but because they’re eight-pointers. Throw in next week against the lowly Tigers and that’s a strong path to 13 wins, plus the home game against Freo and the trip to face Melbourne are both winnable too; funny how much easier that fixture looks after one of their best performances of the year! Of course if they remain inconsistent GWS will be in trouble, but given Gold Coast’s away form and Richmond’s form period, they absolutely should win their next two which will put them in a strong position. Our projections narrowly have them in ninth which is more about our belief in Collingwood, helped by the fact the Mapgies only travel once more, while the Bulldogs are dangerous below (and that Round 24 game could be a mini-elimination final).

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.65 wins, finishing 9th

9. COLLINGWOOD (8-6-2, 104.5%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Geelong at the MCG

Round 19: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 20: Richmond at the MCG

Round 21: Carlton at the MCG

Round 22: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Round 23: Brisbane Lions at the MCG

Round 24: Melbourne at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-hardest

Friday night’s loser was always going to be in a bit of trouble, and with Collingwood seemingly being sapped of its close game and comeback abilities, we now have to consider the possibility of them missing the finals. In a way, the equation is simple – they’re on nine wins, and should be favoured in four more games (vs Geelong, Hawthorn, Richmond and Melbourne). Throw in the Brisbane game if you like; either way that’s a clear path to 13 wins, and remember, nobody has ever missed a top eight with 13 wins. (It may come down to percentage this year.) The Magpies’ situation also got a lot easier on Saturday with losses by key members of the chasing pack – the Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Gold Coast all losing – meaning they are under much less pressure from below. So while it wasn’t a good weekend by any stretch, it could have been a lot worse. We suspect the Magpies will steady and finish in the 5th-to-8th range though knocking off Geelong next Friday night would keep them in the top-four hunt. But a loss to the 2022 premiers would make the 2023 premiers at real risk of repeating them another way… and missing the eight one season later.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.75 wins, finishing 8th

10. MELBOURNE (9-7, 104.4%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Essendon at the MCG

Round 19: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 20: GWS Giants at the MCG

Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: Port Adelaide at the MCG

Round 23: Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium

Round 24: Collingwood at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-hardest

Having gotten the job done against North and now West Coast, the Demons are giving themselves every opportunity to make the eight, especially since they still have to play almost every team they’re fighting for those final spots in September. It’s really hard to analyse Melbourne’s chances because of those games; each result will cause a massive swing in the projected win totals. Freo and the Suns away are difficult, but they get home ground advantage over GWS and Port, so that’s pretty much a wash. It makes the all-Victorian games all the more important – in particular, if they lose to Essendon next week we’ll struggle to see a path to September. Though if they can at least get to 11 wins by the time Round 24 rolls around, there’s some chance Melbourne vs Collingwood is a pre-finals elimination final.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.25 wins, finishing 10th

11. WESTERN BULLDOGS (8-8, 114.8%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Round 19: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Round 20: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Round 21: Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 23: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: GWS Giants at Mars Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-hardest

As we wrote last week: “if the Dogs do slip up against Ken Hinkley’s side, it would leave them needing to pull upsets and/or run the table in the last month to have a real shot at September.” Well, that wasn’t just slipping over, that was falling flat on your face and chipping a tooth. Suddenly the Bulldogs, who we still think are one among the five or six best teams despite Saturday’s loss, are in a proper scrap for September. There is some chance 12 wins gets you into the finals, and the Dogs have a strong percentage, but you really want 13 wins to be sure… and look at that next three weeks – Carlton, Geelong away, Sydney away. Look, at their best Luke Beveridge’s side can win one or two of those, but now they pretty much have to! If you’re only on eight wins after Round 20, your destiny is out of your control, with your ceiling being 12 wins and needing other teams to err. At least sides like Collingwood, Gold Coast and Hawthorn lost too, so the Dogs are still in touch with the top eight – but don’t let the ladder fool you. Because of their tough next three weeks, the Dogs are much further away from the finals than it seems. They could be stuck on eight wins for a while yet.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.1 wins, finishing 11th

12. GOLD COAST SUNS (8-8, 105.3%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Port Adelaide at People First Stadium

Round 19: GWS Giants at ENGIE Stadium

Round 20: Brisbane Lions at People First Stadium

Round 21: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 22: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Melbourne at People First Stadium

Round 24: Richmond at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-easiest

Damien Hardwick was right to drop an F-bomb in his press conference; that was a result that deserved it. At least last year when they somehow lost to North Melbourne, their season was over and the result meant nothing; this time it meant a bloody lot, and the Suns’ utter inability to win away from home is frankly embarrassing. That’s the only word for it – because a spot in the eight is right there for the taking! Beating Collingwood made them catchable! The in-form Hawks and Bulldogs stumbled badly! The Suns probably would’ve been just outside our projected eight if they’d beaten North, but it still would’ve been as close as the football club has ever come to the finals, and instead they just threw it down the drain. They’re not completely out of the race, but now they probably have to win five of their last seven… and even if they win all three games at home, that’s two more away wins. Which is apparently impossible for them. This is what happens when you start to trust this team, unfortunately.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.5 wins, finishing 13th

13. HAWTHORN (8-8, 94.2%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Fremantle at UTAS Stadium

Round 19: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 20: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 21: GWS Giants at Manuka Oval

Round 22: Carlton at the MCG

Round 23: Richmond at the MCG

Round 24: North Melbourne at UTAS Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-easiest

You win seven out of eight, you’re feeling great… and then you cop a 50-point away loss. This is why it’s so hard to come back from an 0-5 start – the margin for error is just so small, and the Hawks certainly couldn’t afford the additional percentage hit they copped against Geelong. With most teams around them on the ladder also losing, it wasn’t a disastrous weekend, but Sam Mitchell’s men need to get back to their winning ways quickly. There is almost no world in which they play finals with 12 wins because of their percentage, so they’re gonna have to win at least five of their last seven (and maybe six of seven). The last fortnight still looks pretty cruisy, so really, that just means winning three (or four) of their next five – it’d especially help if they beat Collingwood and GWS, in order to catch and pass them. Just based on available spots in the eight, it’s very unlikely the Hawks are playing finals if those two teams make it.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.6 wins, finishing 12th

THE NON-CONTENDERS

14. ST KILDA (6-10, 93.1%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 19: West Coast Eagles at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 21: Brisbane Lions at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: Richmond at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Geelong at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-easiest

Well, they could still get to 13 wins… Adelaide away isn’t easy though. We’ll elevate them into the contenders section if they win it but clearly the Saints’ chances of actually making the eight are incredibly slim.

Fox Footy’s projection: 9.05 wins, finishing 14th

15. ADELAIDE CROWS (5-10-1, 102.6%)

Remaining games

Round 18: St Kilda at Adelaide Oval

Round 19: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Hawthorn at Adelaide Oval

Round 21: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Round 22: Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval

Round 23: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 24: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-hardest

Fox Footy’s projection: 8.7 wins, finishing 15th

16. WEST COAST EAGLES (3-13, 69.1%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium

Round 19: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 21: Gold Coast Suns at Optus Stadium

Round 22: North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena

Round 23: Carlton at Optus Stadium

Round 24: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-hardest

Fox Footy’s projection: 4.9 wins, finishing 16th

17. NORTH MELBOURNE (2-14, 66.1%)

Remaining games

Round 18: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Round 19: Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Geelong at Blundstone Arena

Round 21: Richmond at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: West Coast Eagles at Blundstone Arena

Round 23: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-easiest

Fox Footy’s projection: 3.9 wins, finishing 18th

18. RICHMOND (2-14, 62.3%)

Remaining games

Round 18: GWS Giants at the MCG

Round 19: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 20: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 21: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 24: Gold Coast Suns at the MCG

Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-easiest

We have the Tigers projected to finish 17th because their fixture gives them a couple of extra chances at pinching an extra win compared to North Melbourne, though realistically it should come down to the Round 21 game between the two clubs (plus both teams have a winnable game in Round 22).

Fox Footy’s projection: 4.45 wins, finishing 17th