It feels almost weird to say, but Queensland Maroons coach Billy Slater simply got it wrong in Game 2 of this year’s State of Origin series.
After seven almost faultless games from the former champion fullback with the coaching clipboard in hand, his team selection missed the mark for Game 2, and the Maroons were absolutely battered as a result.
If they aren’t built different for Game 3, they will lose the series. It’s really quite as simple as that.
To be fair, the signs were there in Game 1 that the Maroons, lacking a mountain of injured forwards, may well have been set to struggle this year.
Against 12 men in that series opener, the Maroons bumbled and fumbled their way through the first hour of the game against a resillient New South Wales side under new coach Michael Maguire.
They wound up kicking clear for a 38 points to 10 win, but the scoreboard – helped along by a number of late tries – didn’t really reflect the game.
But then came Game 2.
The Maroons, forced to go without J’maine Hopgood, and unsure over the fitness of Selwyn Cobbo, made two changes, bringing in experienced campaigners Kurt Capewell to cover the backs, and Felise Kaufusi as Hopgood’s replacement.
Unfortunately, Queensland are clean out of middle forwards, and are lacking enormous amounts of talent with the likes of Tino Fa’asuamalaeaui, Tom Gilbert, Corey Horsburgh and Thomas Flegler all sidelined for the long-term.
But the fact Billy Slater elected to once again leave out David Fifita was baffling to say the least.
The Maroons ultimately were bullied by the Blues, and the game was over before halftime as the Blues set a new record for the biggest lead at halftime in an Origin game before holding off the Maroons in the second stanza.
The Gold Coast Titans‘ second-rower has been in strong enough form at club level, and what the Maroons needed more than anything for the clash in Melbourne was an influx of aggression.
Ultimately, neither Kaufusi or Capewell were able to provide it, Lindsay Collins was shut down and the forwards simply had no answers for a Blues side who went for the kill from the opening minute.
But that is the model the Maroons must take for Game 3 at home, because for all the benefits playing in Brisbane brings, if they don’t improve on that performance for the decider, the Blues will lift the shield at Suncorp Stadium.
It’s something that hasn’t been done in nearly 20 years, but based on Game 2, the Blues seem a better chance of doing so now than they have at any point during that run.
One of the issues facing the Maroons is that they lack the firepower to be able to be aggressive.
As mentioned, Lindsay Collins is the best candidate to do it, but outside of that, the team has plenty of players you would consider “nice guys”.
The word “grub” gets thrown around far too much in the modern game, but like it or not, it’s that type of player who wins Origin games. That ability to frustrate the opposition, put on big shots and toe the line of what’s legal.
Liam Martin is the leader in that field for the Blues. Queensland fans hate him, but again, it’s those sort of players who you need in an Origin side, as much as some of his statistical output over the journey at Origin level has suggested he probably shouldn’t continue to be picked.
Spencer Leniu is another off the bench who brings the aggression for the Blues, while the likes of Payne Haas (who had his best Origin performance in Game 2) and Haumole Olakau’atu are also aggressive.
Again, the Maroons are lacking in that field.
To change mindset – which Queensland must do – they must have the personnel to do it, and that means picking David Fifita.
He is one of the best ball runners in the competition. You certainly wouldn’t call the Titans’ second-rower a ‘grub’ as discussed earlier, but you would call him dangerous and lethal with the ball in hand, while also able to more than hold his own in defence.
The other factor to note here is that Fifita has runs on the board at Origin level. This isn’t bringing a rookie into the side for Game 3, it’s bringing a proven campaigner who has done the job, including under coach Billy Slater last year.
His axing for Game 1 was questionable, but maybe understandable given he hadn’t played all that many NRL games since coming back from injury at the start of the season.
His non-selection for Game 2 was somewhat baffling given the players picked ahead of him, but if he doesn’t find himself in for the decider, real questions must be asked of the Queensland camp.
David Fifita, and a change of mindset to bring aggression which will match the Blues is key for Game 3.
Otherwise, it’ll be an unprecedented Blues victory in Brisbane.
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