Friday, September 20, 2024

Thorpe predicts the NBA Finals

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BY DAVID THORPE

Can Luka Dončić and the Mavs find a way to rise above the mighty Celtics? MATTHEW J. LEE/THE BOSTON GLOBE / VIA GETTY IMAGES

In the 2023-2024 NBA Finals, old school meets new school—at least “older” school anyway.

The Mavs are the classic: They space around Luka Dončić and let him cook. He’s a master of hunting, creating, and forcing the defense into tough decisions. There’s no great scheme to keep a man that size, with such a shifty skillset, from getting where he wants. Just ask the Wolves. Luka’s 20-point deluge in the first quarter of Game 5 of the Western Conference finals left the Wolves bedraggled, bewildered, and beaten. Hero goes boom. 

The Celtics are deeper, more egalitarian. Somehow it’s a secret, but in case you haven’t heard, this season they had the best offense in NBA history. Boston led the league in 3-point attempts per game (42.5), made a ton (38.8 percent), and are leading the postseason in 3-point attempts per game (39.8). The Mavs took the second-most 3s a game (39.5) during the regular season but finished 13th in efficiency—perhaps one reason why they’re taking six fewer 3s per game in the playoffs.

Though common, I think it’s often a mistake for stars to focus on getting everyone involved early before dialing in later. When a megastar like Luka comes out scorching, as he did in a blowout Game 5, it puts a gale into his own team’s sails, it twists the opponents into knots. Making it tough from the tip for Luka will be paramount for the Celtics. The Timberwolves couldn’t handle the emotional aspects of Luka’s dominance. But Boston has some of the most doggedly stable emotional leaders in the history of the game in Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, and Al Horford. It’s hard to imagine any circumstances where they won’t keep grinding. That could be a problem for the Mavericks. 

I’ve spent the last few weeks near-constantly on the phone with NBA players, coaches, agents, parents, and more. Everyone seems to think that the key to the Celtics will be their stout defense. And it might be! For the Mavericks to win, they need Luka and Kyrie to be transcendent all the time, which will be incredibly difficult against the league’s second-best defense. But are we sure the Celtics won’t win a title with the best offense in NBA history?

Do the Celtics take too many 3s? Sure! Does Jaylen Brown drive like a bull in a china shop? Sometimes. Does Jayson Tatum “settle” for hard shots when there’s time to make better plays? Yes. Will Al Horford go 7-of-12 from 3 again in these playoffs? Probably not. But also: Kristaps Porziņģis’ is coming back, and the Celtics are about to get better.

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