De Minaur has checked the first box, which was to move his forehand rating above the tour average of 7.5. Just imagine how potent he would be if his forehand rating bumped up to 8.4, the same as Carlos Alcaraz. With his exceptional speed and rock-solid backhand, de Minaur would instantly become one of the favourites to win grand slam silverware.
When de Minaur won the ’s-Hertogenbosch tournament in the Netherlands two weeks ago, his forehand rating was spot on 8.4. The improvement on the forehand side was a primary factor in taking the title.
Because de Minaur’s forehand is not his preferred side, he hits too many backhands in matches. Since about 70 per cent of groundstroke winners come from the forehand side, this limits his offensive ability. De Minaur hits about the same amount of forehands and backhands.
Of the top 10 players, only Daniil Medvedev hits fewer forehands on average than de Minaur. With his prolific speed to hit runaround forehands standing in the ad court, and more confidence in his forehand technique and strategy, de Minaur could quite easily become one of the leaders in this critical category.
Success in tennis is all about incremental improvements, and de Minaur has achieved this with his forehand.
For example, his average forehand speed in 2023 was 71mph (114km/h). The tour average was 73mph. This was an obvious red flag for de Minaur, as he really should not be below the tour average in any aspect of his game. In 2024, he has found another two miles per hour and is right on the tour average of 73mph. It’s still far from Sinner’s average of 79mph, but de Minaur’s forehand is heading in the right direction.
Another match metric off the forehand wing that shows noticeable improvement from last season is the average winners a match.
In 2023, de Minaur was averaging 6.7 forehand winners a match. That’s up to 7.2 this season. On one hand, he has to be happy with that improvement. On the other hand, the tour average is 7.8. This is another critical area of his game that simply can’t underperform against the rest of the tour, with the vast majority of players now ranked lower than he is.
One obvious way to squeeze more performance out of his forehand is to put more shape on the ball. That means adding topspin to get the ball further from the net and make it dip more into the court on the other side. The tour average for forehand topspin is 2698rpm. De Minaur is significantly below that at 2261rpm. To give that context, Medvedev is widely known to hit an ultra-flat forehand, but even he gets more spin on his forehand, averaging 2418rpm.
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De Minaur would benefit from getting more under the ball and ripping up the back of it when making contact. A little more spin would allow the Australian to add more power to his forehand, knowing it would safely dip into the court on the other side of the net.
The two biggest weapons on tour are the serve and the forehand. You could argue that de Minaur’s two biggest weapons are his backhand and speed.
His forehand is starting to put its hand up as the third.
Craig O’Shannessy is a world leader in teaching and analysing tennis strategy. He is the creator of the Brain Game Tennis website and was a member of Novak Djokovic’s coaching team.
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