‘Rebuild’ is the watchword for the series between the Wallabies and Wales, who clash in Sydney this weekend in the first of two Tests.
While both sides are rebuilding they are doing so in very different ways. The Wallabies have drafted in proven rugby genius Joe Schmidt to pick up the pieces from a very underwhelming Rugby World Cup cycle that included poor results under Dave Rennie before a radical flash of a stint by Eddie Jones.
Schmidt has his work cut out for him when considering how critical it is for Australia to have a good side with a British & Irish Lions tour in 2025 and a home World Cup in 2027 on the horizon. Of course, there is pressure to get up to speed quickly but given the position of the team when he arrived, Schmidt should be given sufficient time to turn the tide.
On the other hand, Wales called on their mainstay Warren Gatland to resolve issues from the Wayne Pivac era which were bigger than the veteran coach anticipated initially. The core of Gatland’s successful team in the 2010s has since retired and mismanagement of feeder talent coupled with several off-field issues have left Wales with a very inexperienced squad that have lost their last seven on the bounce.
The value of a series win is absolutely massive for both teams but one would think there is a lot more pressure riding on the Welsh shoulders being away from home and having lost so many Tests in a row.
Conversely, the energy in the Wallabies camp is more of renewal but not in the loud and bold sense that Jones attempted to employ but rather a more quiet, head down, kind of approach.
Throw this all together and it’s a melting pot for a fascinating battle which ultimately will benefit both teams regardless of the result.
Where the game will be won
As the cliche goes, it will be won up front by the team that executes the basic fundamentals the best. In modern-day Test rugby in order to win teams need to dominate the collision, be clean in the line-out and avoid conceding scrum penalties. The Wallabies have gone for a hefty tight five with powerhouse Taniela Tupou starting ahead of Allan Alaalatoa which suggests they are going to try to set the tone early in the scrum. We think the Australians may be dominant there but they will need to fix their line-out, which was woeful at times last year, and Wales will be wise to this.
The Wallabies probably have the edge in the backline in terms of pace and ability to beat defenders so Wales will need to disrupt their opponents up front. There is always an element of the unknown when a new coach takes over but one would think Schmidt’s priority to start will be cleaning up the Wallabies’ fundamentals and then building on that.
There is always a chance the northern side could catch Australia cold. Even though it is a new era with a new coach there will be scars and a hot start may result in the Wallabies going into their shell.
Then there is the breakdown battle which will be influenced by our main head-to-head (further down), which will be absolutely central to the result. Both teams have quality players over the ball and protecting possession is going to be a massive factor.
Last time they met
What they said
Wallabies boss Schmidt admits his new captain Liam Wright could be long-term and is ready to get going.
“At the moment, everything’s pretty short-term, including our preparation. We’ve had four trainings really,” Schmidt said.
“I’ve really enjoyed working with Liam, but the same with all the others in the leadership group and the players in general. They’ve been a super group to work with.
“It’s a really interdependent game, rugby. It’s one of the things I love about it but it does mean that your preparation has to be nailed on pretty well if you’re going to get the cohesion on a Saturday.
“While I can’t guarantee the cohesion, I think guys like Josh and the rest of the squad, I can pretty much guarantee the effort that will be there.”
Wales defence coach Mike Forshaw expects the Wallabies to be vastly improved under their new coach.
“They will be a different side, a different animal from the last time we played them,” Forshaw said.
“I think they will be a lot more structured under Joe Schmidt, and they will know exactly what they are going for.
“He is a forensic coach, and we have to be really alive around the middle of the field and at the breakdown. They will be clinical and will want fast ball.”
Players to watch
One of the surprise appointments of all the Test squads is captain Liam Wright. He will become the 89th Wallabies skipper and is an absolute workhorse. Wright was in the top 10 tacklers in Super Rugby as he consistently notched up double figures just about every game. Perhaps not the traditional bruising blindside and more of another openside in some ways but that will work well with number eight Rob Valetini inevitably the chief ball carrier for the Australians. It is a massive occasion for the flank who will empty the tank regardless. It is a fantastic opportunity to cement his spot as a starter and leader.
Speaking of opportunity, Noah Lolesio is another who is getting one wrapped in gold. The fly-half was out of favour under Jones but responded with a brilliant season in Brumbies colours. Once touted as the future of the Wallabies at 10 the star could well become that player. He is a bit older now, more mature and astute in his decision-making. Lolesio is a well-rounded fly-half and one feels it is now or never for the Canberra man.
Schmidt picked a ripping back-three for this Test. There is a lovely balance between the elusive and high-energy running of Tom Wright, who will be desperate to prove a point that he can excel at Test level, the experience and evergreen class of Andrew Kellaway and the explosive power of Filipo Daugunu, who can fulfil a Marika Koroibete-esque role. If they get the service, space and time they have more than enough to run Wales ragged.
Gatland made a shock call on his own with Ben Thomas at fly-half which is interesting considering he played a lot of the season at 12. He does offer really good goal kicking and a bigger frame than Sam Costelow in the fly-half channel but the decision remains bold. It will be an interesting experiment and has every chance to come off.
The most consistent Welshman is Aaron Wainwright who week in and week out is a superhero in red. He has the most incredible engine on both sides of the ball and is a coach’s dream. It is his work rate that allows the likes of Tommy Reffell to influence the breakdown. Another massive performance is required.
Lastly, the second-row of Dafydd Jenkins and Christ Tshiunza who surely are the future of Welsh rugby in many ways. Both players are brilliant and have bright futures ahead of them. The pair need to target the Wallabies line-out and work hard in the tight against a heavy Wallabies front five. If these players are to fulfil their potential it starts now in the engine room.
Main head-to-head
This week’s battle is one for those who love the breakdown as Fraser McReight and Tommy Reffell clash.
McReight is one of the hardest workers on the field every time he plays. That is probably where he edges Reffell. The Wallaby is also brilliant at the breakdown but perhaps slightly behind his opposite number in that regard. The flank has long been viewed as the heir to the great Michael Hooper’s throne and this is as good a chance as any to seize it.
He will have to keep Tommy ‘Turnover’ Reffell at bay. A player does not get that nickname by mistake and Leicester Tigers fans will fondly recall the countless times the Welshman has gotten over the ball and changed possession or won a penalty. No question about it, the openside has to be a menace at the breakdown if Wales are to truly challenge the Wallabies.
Prediction
Wales are lacking confidence and come up against a team starting a new era in their own backyard, making it a very difficult task for the visitors. Schmidt is a brilliant rugby mind and will start with the foundations before building the house. As a result, the Wallabies will be much neater and grow into the game. Australia to win by 10 points.
Previous results
2023: Wales won 40-6 in Lyon
2022: Australia won 39-34 in Cardiff
2021: Wales won 29-28 in Cardiff
2019: Wales won 29-25 in Chofu
2018: Wales won 9-6 in Cardiff
2017: Australia won 29-21 in Cardiff
2016: Australia won 32-8 in Cardiff
2015: Australia won 15-6 in London
2014: Australia won 33-28 in Cardiff
The teams
Australia: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Andrew Kellaway, 13 Josh Flook, 12 Hunter Paisami, 11 Filipo Daugunu, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Jake Gordon, 8 Rob Valetini, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Liam Wright (c), 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4 Jeremy Williams, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Matt Faessler, 1 James Slipper
Replacements: 16 Billy Pollard, 17 Isaac Kailea, 18 Allan Alaalatoa, 19 Angus Blyth, 20 Charlie Cale, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Tom Lynagh, 23 Dylan Pietsch
Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 Josh Hathaway, 13 Owen Watkin, 12 Mason Grady, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Ben Thomas, 9 Ellis Bevan, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Tommy Reffell, 6 Taine Plumtree, 5 Dafydd Jenkins, 4 Christ Tshiunza, 3 Archie Griffin, 2 Dewi Lake (c), 1 Gareth Thomas
Replacements: 16 Evan Lloyd, 17 Kemsley Mathias, 18 Harri O’Connor, 19 Cory Hill, 20 James Botham, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Sam Costelow, 23 Nick Tompkins
Date: Saturday, July 6
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Kick-off: 19:45 local (10:45 BST, 09:45 GMT)
Referee: Pierre Brousset (France)
Assistant Referees: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand), James Doleman (New Zealand)
TMO: Marius Jonker (South Africa)