For a run down of the NFP, market moves, and implications, check this out:
On Sunday Wall Street Journal Fed watcher Timiraos said the result boosted the chance of a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut at the September meeting, due to:
- the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, a sign of slack in a labor market that has already shown some hints of gradually slowing down
- other indications as well that the job market is continuing to cool. Average hourly earnings were up 3.9% in June from a year earlier, marking their smallest gain since 2021. The counts for both April and May were revised lower by a combined 111,000 jobs. The labor-force participation rate, the share of working-age people who were employed or seeking work, ticked up to 62.6%—an indication that more people entered the labor market.
Here is the link to the Journal, gated, if you can access it.
On the Fed:
- There likely wasn’t anything alarming enough in Friday’s payroll report to lead Fed officials to push for a July rate cut.
- a mild inflation report next week could lead to Fed doves who are more worried about labor-market weakness to argue that it is time for the central bank to tee up a September rate cut
Also over the weekend Adam posted his thoughts on inflation – sees it dropping: