Saturday, November 9, 2024

Welcome To The Basketball Offseason: Looking at the ‘24-’25 Guards

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Academic Calendar:

(first day of classes)

  • Summer Session 1 – May 15
  • Summer Session 2 – June 24
  • Fall – August 18

Summer Workouts:

NCAA – 17.1.7.2.1.6.1 Basketball. “In basketball, a student-athlete who is enrolled in summer school may engage in required weight-training, conditioning and skill-related instruction for up to eight weeks (not required to be consecutive weeks). … Participation in such activities shall be limited to a maximum of eight hours per week with not more than four hours per week spent on skill-related instruction.” (Link )

Welcome to the Offseason!

June is here, the mortarboards have flown, the trophies are doing the rounds for the fans to see (Pints With The Pack), the roster is set, and the work begins on next season. The transfers, Huntley-Hatfield, Hill, James, and Styles are all on campus and in offseason workouts. MJ Rice (!) is working out with the team. Freshman Trey Parker has arrived and is at practice. Our other freshman, Paul McNeil has announced he intends to arrive for the second summer session but also reinforced his excitement for playing for the Wolfpack next season. Coach Keatts already has new assistant coach Brett Nelson on the recruiting trail offering big time 2025 3PT shooter, Ryan Frost. And somebody already has us ranked 10th (of 18) in the ACC next year. (link) Welcome to the basketball offseason.

This is the time of year when we, the fans, all have our opinions on what the team is going to look like next season. The fans don’t know (remember hating on O’Connell early?), the coaches don’t really know for certain yet (Coach Keatts famously said before last season, “I’ll be shocked if Ben Middlebrooks isn’t our leading rebounder”), the basketball writers definitely don’t know (10th ??) (probably the same guys that predicted Miami #2 last preseason), and many things could happen (injuries, academics, hamstrings, meteor strikes, etc.) before the next season tips off November 4. But it’s fun to speculate.

As you would hope, the Wolfpack made the most of the post season success by signing a very strong transfer class (ranked #20 in some polls) – and in the case of Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, Mike James, and Dontrez Styles, we signed our number one choice by position. We also have Marcus Hill, a 1st Team All-MAC guard trying to make the jump to the ACC. Ernest Ross reversed course and is returning along with six other solid returnees. And we have two exciting freshmen joining the team. There are also rumblings of the team bringing in another big by using NIL dollars in lieu of having an available scholarship. Most recently we have been in contact with former NC A&T player Duncan Powell (along with TX, KU, FSU, VT, and WVU). In the unlikely event it actually happens, he won’t impact the expected starting rotation, he will be depth.

Potential Rotation v1

Position Starter First Sub Bench Bench
Position Starter First Sub Bench Bench
1 Michael O’Connell Marcus Hill Breon Pass
2 Jayden Taylor Marcus Hill Mike James Trey Parker
3 Mike James Dennis Parker Jr Paul McNeil
4 Dontrez Styles Ben Middlebrooks MJ Rice
5 Brandon Huntley-Hatfield Ben Middlebrooks Ernest Ross

I’ve grouped the team into guards – those expected to primarily play the 1 and/or 2 positions, wings – those expected to primarily play the 3 and/or 4 positions, and the bigs. There are obviously blurred lines across these groupings, but it’s a way to start the conversation.

Looking at the Guards

Player EXP GP MIN FG% 3P% FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
Player EXP GP MIN FG% 3P% FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
Michael O’Connell NCS 41 25.1 44.9 37.5 77.6 3.4 3.2 0.1 0.9 1.6 1.2 5.7
Jayden Taylor NCS 41 27.4 41.3 36.4 75.5 3.6 1.3 0.5 1.1 1.8 1.5 11.2
Marcus Hill BGSU 34 36.3 44.3 28.9 74 5 2.6 0.3 1 1.9 2.6 20.5
Breon Pass NCS 31 5.4 44.1 33.3 62.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 1.3
Trey Parker OTE 22 41.2 25.4 33.5 4.91 3.09 0.73 1.68 11

NOTE: High school statistics are limited for Trey Parker. EXP – experience, where he played last season, and the source of the stats.

Your immediate reaction is likely to be, where is Mike James? He is a guard, but I think he fits better at the wing and will be included in that article. Partly because so far in his career he’s better at the catch & shoot than he is off the dribble, but primarily I don’t think there’s much room at guard and he’s too good not to start. Coach Keatts told him he thought he was a better ball handler than he had shown, if that proves to be true, we could see him at guard later in the season. Additionally, if Hill struggles adjusting to the ACC, James will be required at guard.

Michael O’Connell – Spoiler Alert!, he will start at PG. He is the best all-around shooter and has an outstanding assist/turnover ratio – ranked 3rd in the ACC last season, 48th in the country. Add on to that he’s a fifth-year player and has started 98 games. I think he’ll play 30+ minutes a game. The only question is, are we going to see the 5.x ppg regular season Mike, or will we see more of the 9.5 ppg post season Mike? The latter, please.

Career Highs: Points 22, assists 12, rebounds 11, steals 4

Jayden Taylor – I expect him to start the season at the 2. He is our best defender, and he and O’Connell are two of our three best 3PT shooters (sur le papier), Styles being the third. It helps the team having our two starting guards being experienced, both with a season in Coach Keatts’ system and they’ve each played a lot of basketball at a high level. Jayden started 29 games last season, but as O’Connell got stronger at point Horne spent more time at the 2, and Jayden spent 12 games coming off the bench. To his credit, he continued to play well, and in the first game of the ACC Tournament when Horne could not play, he started and delivered 18 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 steals, and a blocked shot.

Career Hights: Points 28, assists 5, rebounds 9, steals 4

Marcus Hill – I think he’s the first off the bench at both the 1 & the 2 to start the season. He’s our biggest question mark. Can he deliver at this level? Last year, in his only D1 season (two seasons JUCO – led the NJCAA in scoring his sophomore season), he played point guard, was decent at assists, and was a one-on-one matchup headache for the defense. However, he did not shoot well from outside, and his assist (87) / turnover (90) ratio was a problem. He was the dominant player on the Bowling Green team, leading that team in minutes, scoring, steals, and assists. He took more than twice as many field goal attempts as the player in second place. His role will be significantly different with the Pack, and he will be surrounded by the best players he’s ever played with.

One thing we didn’t do well last season was drive the ball to the basket and score, and Hill was excellent at it – he scored or got fouled a high percentage of the time. Coach Keatts recently talked about Hill to The Wolfpacker, “He’s a guy that lives at the free throw line, but also is a very capable scorer from outside. He has a nice mid-range game and is also a lot better three-point shooter than he probably gets credit for.”

Something that should make a difference for Hill is his minutes per game. At BGSU, he averaged 36.3 per game. For comparison, no one in the ACC averaged that many minutes. DJ Horne led the Pack at 32.6 mpg. (Casey at 32.5 was the only other Pack player over 30) He’s going to have much fresher legs which might translate to better outside shooting and fewer turnovers.

I expect him to do well. If he’s not in the starting lineup, he should get a lot of minutes off the bench. I think he could be a great addition.

Career Hights: Points 35, assists 7, rebounds 11, steals 5

Breon Pass – He’s going to have another season, just like the other seasons. It is a nice compliment to the program that he and Ross are back for their 4th seasons. Four year players are becoming increasingly rare. In the unlikely event that Hill is a poor fit at the 1, he’ll get more minutes than anticipated. Like everyone else, I keep hoping Breon will find that HS 3PT shooting stroke again. He has become a reliable defender, so now there’s little drop off defensively when he comes in. He is solid and will provide quality bench time.

Career Hights: Points 7, assists 4, rebounds 7, steals 2

Trey Parker – I’m going to do a separate article on the freshmen, but it seems unlikely that he’ll be a difference maker this season due to our quality and experience at guard. However, having spent an extra season at OTE playing high level competition, he is an older freshman (turned 20 in March) and could be a welcome surprise. The slam dunk contest at Primetime With The Pack could be special this season.

Looking ahead to the 2025-2026 Season: Only Trey Parker will have remaining eligibility.

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