News Corp Australia’s national racing editor Matt Williams and senior racing writer Ben Dorries chat all things horse racing.
Matty (left) and Benny thrive on their racing soapbox.
MW: Benny, it’s crazy to think that if you owned Imperatriz you took under the odds. Let me explain. They paid $360,000 for her as a yearling, plus four years of training fees for say $150,000 so a $510,000 investment. She won $7 million prizemoney on the track — less 15 per cent for the trainers and jockeys — so $5.95 million for the owners. They then sold her for $6.6 million as a broodmare for an estimated total return of $12.5 million to the owners from a $510,000 investment. That’s odds of only 24-1! The true odds of getting a horse as good as Imperatriz, a 10-time Group 1 winner, is a lot longer than 24-1, let me assure you. I’m saying this all tongue in cheek, of course, and you’d love to own her, but you get my drift. Congratulations to her owners for getting a record price. It’ll be great to watch her progeny come through the ranks.
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BD: You’ve confused me. Mind you, it doesn’t take Sherlock Holmes to do that. To be honest, I’ve never got into the whole sales culture and clique in racing. I’m not talking about Imperatriz, but some of the figures I’ve seen over the years have seemed fairly rubbery. At least, with a horse like Imperatriz, you know what you’re buying. But some of the multimillion-dollar buys at yearling sales, well, a lot of it seems like investing in lotto and hoping for a return. Many of the bigger players in yearling sales seem to be getting bigger, much bigger. It makes me wonder about the small-time owner and what the future is for them. Thank goodness for syndication companies.
Imperatriz wins the Manikato Stakes.
MW: Can Racing Minister Anthony Carbines please hurry up and appoint Gillon McLachlan as Racing Victoria chairman. It feels like this whole saga has been going on for as long as Gil wore the mustard jacket at Warrnambool. The race for RV’s chief executive job is also heating up with plenty putting their hats in the ring. Interim CEO Aaron Morrison hasn’t hurt his cause, coming out on the front foot saying he values and respects participants, which is a different narrative to his predecessor.
BD: I’m sick of the whole saga re: Gill. It’s become tiresome. Wake me up when there’s a new chairman and CEO. Agree re: Aaron Morrison. He’s a good man and would be a strong leader.
* Tuvalu’s secret weapon ahead of Group 1 tilt
MW: The Kingsford Smith Cup is a brilliant race at Eagle Farm on Saturday. It’s Everest-like in many ways. We know punters are a weird breed (yes, that includes us) but how I Wish I Win is rated nearly twice as good a chance to win than Bella Nipotina staggers me. She should’ve beaten him easily in the Doomben 10,000, and their previous clashes show there’s nothing between them. Yet she’s $6.50, and he’s $3.80. Baffling. Her win in the Giga Kick Stakes over 1300m in the spring was excellent so the distance is no issue, and she’s drawn a perfect gate. A bit of rain around will only enhance her chances. She’s an each-way bet to nothing. When will she get the respect she deserves? She’s won $9.8m prizemoney for crying out loud! I liked Antino’s chances until he drew 12 of 12, while expect In Secret to run a cracker first-up from a nice gate.
Bella Nipotina wins the Giga Kick Stakes.
BD: I’ll tell you what will make this race extra intriguing. If up to 20mm of rain that is forecast on race day arrives. I’ll believe it when I see it, because weather forecasting is the only job in the world you can get wrong literally every day and still have a job the next day. But if it’s wet, you could be bang on about Bella. If there’s juice in the track, I’m certain Wangoom winner Tuvalu will start significantly shorter than the $19 currently available. He is as tough as old boots and could prove hard to catch. I reckon you want to wait until race day and assess conditions before diving into anything.
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MW: I was chips in on Autumn Angel in the Rough Habit Plate, and came up short, but I’ll go again in the Queensland Derby. During the week, Peter Moody rated her as probably the best horse in his stable (even better than I Wish I Win) so you stand up and take notice. Her run in the Rough Habit was excellent, and the step up to the 2400m is ideal. Mark Zahra, who has won the last two Melbourne Cups, is a brilliant staying jockey and he’ll get her to settle beautifully from barrier 1. If she gets luck at the right time, she’ll win. Tannhauser, who’s also drawn well, is her only danger. I’m expecting them to clear out and run 1-2 with a gap to third. Warmonger is a good horse but the widest barrier makes it tough.
BD: I second that about Autumn Angel. If the Eagle Farm track plays fairly, she will beat this lot. Mind you, that doesn’t help punters who lost the shirts off their backs when you declared her as “just about the bet of the year” in the Rough Habit. Going to the more expansive Eagle Farm track and up to 2400m is in her sweet spot.
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Autumn Angel wins the Australian Oaks.
MW: Hezashocka is a great bet in the Premier’s Cup. His run in the Doomben Cup last week was excellent, and down in grade with Jamie Kah from barrier 3 he looks the one to beat. I really hope Shock ‘Em Ova gets a run in the Lord Mayor’s Cup. He’s a serious horse and it will be a great story if trainer Alex Rae can get him home after his mum, Cathy, died after a short illness. We talk a lot about the Racing Gods, so if he’s get a run surely Shock ‘Em Ova will get the job done. Corniche is starting to hit his straps as a racehorse, and he can win the Fred Best Classic at an each-way price.
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BD: I’m tipping something at big odds in the Sires’. Filly Jemoma Alpilage, trained by one-time Toowoomba taxi driver Kevin Kemp. She was absolutely backed off the map last start and ran really well. There was $101 available on her earlier this week in the $1m Sires’ and that’s now been slashed to $34. Where there’s smoke, there’s often fire. And, a couple of starts ago, this filly comfortably beat Brutal Bowler who is $6. Brutal Bowler’s last start win was fabulous, and that colt looks a cracking prospect. I’ve backed both and if Kempy’s filly wins I’ll be penning this column next week from a beach house in Barbados. Cheers.