AFL clubs will be updated next week on potential changes to the draft system after the league flagged an overhaul as soon as this year.
It’s believes clubs will find out in smaller groups of six the potential changes made to draft points bidding for academy and father-son prospects, in a meeting between the AFL and team footy bosses.
It comes amid the league’s competitive balance review, with AFL football operations boss Laura Kane confirming last weekend potential changes “might” come into effect for this November’s national draft. It would impact the rules for bidding on academy and father-son players, as well as the Draft Value Index — with a likely rise in draft cost clubs will have to pay in order to secure high-end academy or father-son prospects.
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It’s caused a mixed reaction at club land, with particular backlash from a select few clubs most affected, including Carlton, given some teams have already traded future picks with the current system in mind and did not anticipate change for the upcoming draft.
“It’s significant – if we look at decisions that were made 12 months ago, there’s some decisions that we’d make differently; we’d position ourselves in this draft very differently to how we have,” Blues coach Michael Voss said on Monday night.
“Right now, we’re really comfortable with the points system and where we’re at and (if) we have enough points to fulfil that and execute that strategy – but, if the proposed changes are made, then we fall somewhat well short – so we have to put the thinking caps on and reposition ourselves and what it actually looks like … Absolutely you shouldn’t be able to do that.”
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Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, GWS and Gold Coast are the clubs most impacted this year as they have access to elite talent in this year’s draft via father-sons and academies.
One list manager spoken to by foxfooty.com.au claims clubs have had plenty of warning about potential change, saying they’ve had in writing from last year their desire for an equal draft where teams need to pay the equal price point to which a bid comes.
The view from that club is it wanted change years ago and ultimately thinks the current rules favour the teams in the northern markets, who have had access to high-end talent the rest of the country hasn’t.
For example, the Suns last year turned Pick 4 into a suite of later selections that helped them land four academy players inside the first 26 picks — Jed Walter, Ethan Read, Jake Rogers and Will Graham.
The list manager also pointed to clubs loading up with later picks in this draft, attempting to package them up to move into the early rounds.
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Another club source close to the matter says they’ve been surprised by the pace of potential change, claiming there’s only been minimal discussion around it from the AFL.
They ultimately believe teams that would be most affected by it in the coming years with elite prospects coming through would be most up in arms.
That club says it’s open for change, but wants to know soon, while another told Foxfooty.com.au the current conversation is an overreaction to last year.
Another club footy boss spoken to by foxfooty.com.au claims teams have had a line of sight of a draft shake-up for months, not weeks, and that it was planning for option A and B.
While it understood unrest from some teams — and said the current system wasn’t fair and hasn’t equated to equal value — it stressed that every club was in a unique position and self motivated by its best interests.
He thinks clubs have simply used the system to their advantage and that ultimately a Josh or Nick Daicos shouldn’t be playing anywhere but Collingwood.
That club footy boss favoured additional flexibility otherwise with regards to the trading of picks further into the future and buying picks.
Another list boss highlighted that change is clearly coming this year or next year — and that it was prepared for both — suggesting there’s no need to get enraged when teams don’t know the rules yet.
Potential changes being floated by list bosses include:
– teams being able to match bids for Next Generation Academy players after pick 20, rather than after pick 40, or even no limitation at all like the Jamarra Ugle-Hagan draft;
– reduced discounts for father-son bid matching;
– limitations on how many picks can be used to match a bid;
– a reduction in how many picks have a points value, instead of the current system where selections all the way down to pick 73 are valued.
That list boss also highlighted that it’s impossible to make the system even and that other clubs have benefited from teams manoeuvring including the Western Bulldogs landing Pick 6 last year as part of Gold Coast splitting its opening selection.
Below are the clubs that could be most affected by changes to the 2024 draft and how they’re currently placed to land their prospects.
Brisbane’s bids
Current picks: 6, 44, 63 (2225 points)
Levi Ashcroft (father-son, estimated top 3)
If bid made at 3, would need 1787 points
Sam Marshall (Academy, estimated pick 15-20)
If bid made at 17, would need 820 points
Given their form, the Lions’ first-round pick is unlikely to be as high as pick 6 on draft night anyway.
But in either case, they would be expected to trade down the order to gather more points, as it is more efficient points-wise and teams never want to use top-10 picks for bid matching.
As an example, in 2022 the Lions traded away pick 25 to Geelong, receiving picks 38, 48, 55 and two future selections.
Carlton’s bids
Current picks: 17, 37, 64, 66, 68 (1748 points)
Ben Camporeale (father-son, estimated 15-20)
If bid made at 17, would need 820 points
Lucas Camporeale (father-son, estimated 30-35)
If bid made at 32, would need 387 points
The Blues clearly started planning for the Camporeale twins last year, obtaining three fourth-round picks – which are almost irrelevant for teams picking players, but much more valuable for matching bids, especially since they can move up the order on draft night as other bids are matched.
As it stands they have plenty of points though they could also choose to trade out their first-round pick, since it will likely fall around the point where Ben will receive a bid.
In an ideal world they would trade down from 17 – like last year, when Gold Coast sent out 11, but got 14, 27 and 35 – to match the Ben bid, then draft a player in the 20s, before matching the Lucas bid in the 30s with later selections.
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Gold Coast’s bid
Current picks: 8, 10, 20, 26, 30, 54, 62 (5559 points)
Leo Lombard (Academy, estimated 5-10)
If bid made at 7, would need 1315 points
Even though the Suns have more than enough points to acquire Lombard, they’re likely to trade out at least one of their first-round picks, because they wouldn’t want it used while matching the bid.
Something like last year, when the Suns traded away 11 and received 14, 27 and 35, makes plenty of sense, and they could even try and trade back up the order on draft night once the Lombard bid has gone through.
GWS’ bid
Current picks: 11, 31, 49, 55, 67 (2498 points)
Logan Smith (Academy, estimated 25-30)
If bid made at 27, would need 506 points
The most likely scenario would be the Giants using their natural first-round pick, and then hoping Smith slides until after their second selection (currently 31), since they could then comfortably match the bid with their three late picks.
Adelaide’s bid
Current picks: 4, 29, 42, 60 (3228 points)
Tyler Welsh (father-son, estimated 30-35)
If bid made at 32, would need 387 points
Similar to the Giants, the Crows would want to use the juicy first-round pick they’ll receive for their disappointing 2024 campaign, and then match the Welsh bid with late picks.
Picks 42 and 60 by themselves would be enough to match a Welsh bid made anywhere after pick 26.
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UNDERDOGS PULL OFF STUNNING CHAMPS BOILOVER
Expectations on Western Australia were low heading into this year’s National Under 18 championships.
But on Sunday morning at Alberton Oval, the Black Swans produced a breathtaking, team-orientated performance to stun the more-fancied South Australian team.
WA booted six goals in both the first and fourth terms – while holding SA to just six goals for the entire match – to record an emphatic 67-point win, 18.7 (115) to 6.12 (48).
The visitors were spearheaded by key forward duo Max Rohr and Kayle Gerreyn, who combined for seven goals to cause mass headaches for SA’s defence.
Rohr (197cm) booted 4.1 from 14 disposals, with two of those goals coming in the first quarter to set the tone for his side.
“He’s been the surprise packet, the beanpole up forward,” AFL National Talent Ambassador Kevin Sheehan told Fox Footy.
“It’s been his ground level work, using his footy smarts to win the ball and kick those important goals.”
Gerreyn (199cm) showed similarly impressive composure and cleanliness at ground level on his way to 3.0 from 14 disposals and three clearances.
“This boy is showing he’s got some real AFL attributes with some elite kicking. He’s a lovely size who can get up in the ruck as well,” Sheehan said.
“He’s a beautiful, natural kick of the footy for a young man of that size. At 199cm, you don’t often see them that good hand to foot.”
WA was also boosted by the return of captain Bo Allan from a back injury with a bang.
Widely considered his state’s top prospect, Allan racked up 19 disposals, six tackles, six score involvements and five clearances to be among his side’s best players.
“He hasn’t let us down. He’s been a super leader,” Sheehan said.
“I’ve loved his work on the inside as well as the outside.
“A left-footer and a lovely size at 190cm. He’s got that range that allows him to win the ball around stoppages with his size. He’s very team-oriented, so can play half-back as well as through the midfield.”
Allan had great support from fellow on-baller Luke Urquhart, who backed up his excellent 21-disposal outing against the Allies with 19 disposals, 11 inside 50s, seven clearances and six score involvements against WA.
“He’s the shape and type to be able to mix it AFL level,” Sheehan said.
“I’ve heard the stories about his commitment to the game and to want to be as good as he can be.
“He’s powerful, both inside and outside. I’ve loved the way he’s started the year and started these championships.”
Koby Evans, Hamish Davis and Charlie Burke all kicked two goals each for WA, with Evans’ majors both coming in the final quarter. His first goal was followed by an epic backflip celebration.
And of Burke’s 18 disposals, 11 ended up in WA scores.
Bottom-ager Charlie Banfield – the son of premiership Eagle Drew Banfield – kicked a goal and earned praise from Sheehan for “his courage in the air”, while fellow 17-year-old Cody Curtin – the brother of recent Crows draftee Daniel Curtin – took a sensational mark in the second quarter.
And key defender Darcy Peterson did an outstanding job on dangerous SA forward Tyler Welsh, who kicked 0.2 from just three disposals. Peterson had 12 touches and a team-high six intercepts himself.
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FATHER-SONS’ GLIMPSES FOR SA
Welsh – the Adelaide father-son prospect – wasn’t the only SA player to have a quiet day during the big loss, but there were still a few standouts for the Croweaters.
Carlton father-son prospect Lucas Camporeale bounced back from a quiet first game against Vic Country to finish with a game-high 29 disposals, five marks and 672m gained. Twin brother Ben Camporeale was again solid for SA, racking up 23 touches, nine contested possessions, six tackles, five inside 50s and five clearances.
On Lucas Camporeale, Sheehan said: “He can find the space. He’s one of those boys who’s super athletic and can get into the hole and run to receive the handpass then use the ball.
“I think Carlton fans can get pretty excited about the Camporeale twins going forward.”
Ruck Alex Dodson – who’s weighing up whether to pursue a footy or basketball career – again impressed for his state, collecting 20 disposals, 10 contested possessions, five clearances and 22 hit-outs. Should he commit to footy, some recruiters believe the 203cm Dodson is the best ruck prospect in this year’s draft pool.
“His mobility work around the ground has been super for a boy of his size and age,” Sheehan said.
High-flying SA forward Ned Bowman finished strongly with three goals, while crumbing goalkicker Evan Bradley kicked two early majors.
“What a swoop,” Sheehan said after Bradley’s first goal. “Quick and smart around the goals – that’s his asset. One quick glance at them and straight through.”
And there were promising signs for Port Adelaide fans, with Power father-son prospect Louie Montgomery – the son of Brett Montgomery – having some standout moments in the air for SA.
Montgomery finished with 14 disposals, five intercepts and three contested marks.
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BACK IN VICTORIA …
With both Vic Country and Vic Metro having a weekend off the national champs, a few top prospects returned to their Coates Talent League clubs – and starred.
The Dandenong Stingrays were boosted by the return of gun midfielders Cooper Hynes and Harvey Langford for the clash against the Oakleigh Chargers. Hynes booted 3.1 from 27 disposals, while Langford kicked 1.1 from 29 disposals, nine marks, nine tackles and seven inside 50s.
For the Chargers, Luke Quaynor – the brother of premiership Magpie Isaac Quaynor – continued to build on his impressive recent form, finishing with 20 disposals and eight rebound 50s.
Emerging Gippsland Power prospect Xavier Lindsay, who some recruiters believe is a first-round chance, was among his side’s best players in the win over the Murray Bushrangers, booting 2.2 from 20 touches.
For the Bushrangers, Matt Whitlock returned to the forward line – a week after a solid defensive outing for Vic Country – to boot 2.2 from 13 touches, while Josh Murphy (2.2) and Joe Berry (1.1) also hit the scoreboard. Jack Whitlock was held goalless from nine disposals.
Top Bendigo Pioneers prospects Toby Travaglia and Archer Day-Wicks dominated for their side in a tight loss to the Sandringham Dragons. After starring in defence for Vic Country, Travaglia returned to the forward line for Bendigo to boot 3.0 from 28 disposals, seven tackles and five inside 50s, while Day-Wicks also kicked 3.0 from 22 disposals and six marks.
Top GWV Rebels prospect Jonty Faull, who missed Vic Country’s first champs match as he works his way back from injury, had a strong game against Tasmania, booting 3.1 from nine disposals. Teammate Mitch Lloyd was busy at the other end of the field, finishing with 23 disposals and 10 marks. But it was the Devils who got the win, with small forwards Lenny Douglas (3.2 from 15 disposals) and Oliver Depaoli-Kubank (1.0 from 23 disposals) doing ample damage.
Nash King (Calder Cannons) and Cody Anderson (Eastern Ranges) responded well to missing out on selection in Vic Metro’s first champs game, racking up 30 and 27 touches respectively in their two teams’ Talent League clash on Saturday. Essendon NGA prospect Isaac Kako (1.2, 27 disposals) and Damon Hollow (27 disposals) both impressed for the Cannons, while possible top-10 prospect Christian Moraes continued his consistent Talent League campaign with one goal from 24 touches and eight tackles.