Everybody likes getting a raise. We’ll find out just how much more we’re getting paid — as a nation — when the May jobs report comes out tomorrow.
Wages were running really hot two years ago, rising about 6% a year. Wage growth has cooled since then, and in April average hourly earnings were up just under 4%.
Economists expect continued moderation in wages, as the Fed’s high interest rates crimp economic growth and labor demand weakens.
The trend is most evident among small businesses. Frank Fiorille tracks this at payroll processor Paychex.
“We continue to see wage growth slow down, and we saw it again this month pretty dramatically,” he said.
At companies with fewer than 50 employees, Fiorille said wages grew by just 2.1% on an annualized basis in May — the slowest pace since November 2020.
One bright spot for workers: Even as wage growth slows, price inflation is slowing more.
“We’re kind of clawing back some of what was lost,” said Skanda Amarnath, an economist at policy research group Employ America. “After we’ve been through a series of cost of living shocks, real wages are improving.”
In April, wages outpaced price by about 0.5% year over year.
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