The third slam of the season is upon us as the third round of the 2024 Wimbledon Championships begins on Day 5. The All England Club draw has given us some scintillating Round 3 matchups, including reigning champion Carlos Alcaraz vs Frances Tiafoe. As always, we at LWOT have our roundtable predictions for all the Wimbledon action. Ateet, Jordan, and Vishakha offer their insights.
Wimbledon Day 5 Men’s Predictions
Daniil Medvedev vs Jan-Lennard Struff
Ateet
This is an extremely tough match for Medvedev but I think he will be up for it. Struff is a dangerous player on any surface but his big serve and volleys are deadly on grass. It would not be a surprise if Struff beats Medvedev but in the best of five sets, Medvedev’s elite mentality and return of serve will be key.
Prediction: Medvedev in 5
Jordan
This is a very dangerous third-round for Medvedev. Struff, who has beaten the 2021 US Open champion on grass in the past, possesses a huge serve and powerful shots, meaning this is likely to be decided by fine margins. Although Medvedev is a great returner, he is more prone to lapses on grass than his favoured hard courts. That could mean an upset is possible.
Prediction: Struff in 5
Vishakha
Keep an eye on this one since this could be a big opportunity for Struff who upset the 32nd seed Zhang Zhizhen in the previous round. Zhang’s win over Medvedev at the Halle Open last week adds to the intrigue of this match. Struff has defeated Medvedev once on grass before (Halle Open 2021). Medvedev has been in great form and has only dropped one set in his first two matches. Even though it could get tough for him, it looks like he will come out on top against the German, who has never advanced past the third round at SW19.
Prediction: Medvedev in 4
Brandon Nakashima vs Ugo Humbert
Ateet
Brandon Nakashima dominated Jordan Thompson, who has been in good form and is an excellent player on grass. Nakashima served at a high rate and was efficient at the net. If Nakashima plays as aggressively as he did against Thompson, he has a good chance to win against Ugo Humbert.
Prediction: Nakashima in 4
Jordan
Nakashima, after a terrible 2023, is finally starting to show some of his huge talent once again. His flat-hitting presents a real challenge to Humbert. This promises to be close, but the Frenchman is backed to narrowly win.
Prediction: Humbert in 5
Vishakha
While Humbert holds a higher ranking, Nakashima’s recent performances on grass have been quite impressive. With notable victories including an upset over 18th seed Sebastian Baez in the first round and a semifinal finish at the Stuttgart Open, Nakashima’s form on grass court suggests that he may have the edge in this match. Despite Humbert’s experience and the fact that grass is his best-performing surface, Nakashima could pose a real challenge and potentially emerge as the winner in their first encounter.
Prediction: Nakashima in 5
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Roberto Bautista Agut vs Fabio Fognini
Ateet
A third-round match between these two veterans is a little unexpected but also exciting.
Casper Ruud is not good on grass but the way Fognini dominated the entire match was surprising. Fognini has never made the fourth round at Wimbledon and has a chance to do it at 37. Historically, Bautista Agut has been a better player on grass over the years, but Fognini owns the head-to-head. However, their last meeting came in 2019 and they have never met on grass. Bautista Agut is more consistent and will have fewer dips.
Prediction: Bautista Agut in 4
Jordan
It is slightly surprising to see these two veterans reach this stage. This is especially the case for Fognini, who has never loved grass throughout his career. Even at this late stage of his career, I would take Bautista Agut’s game on grass over Fognini’s.
Prediction: Bautista Agut in 4
Vishakha
After a shocking win over 8th seed Ruud in the previous round, Fognini has his best shot to advance past the third round at SW19 for the first time. With a 7-3 head-to-head lead over fellow veteran Bautista Agut, he seems to have the edge. However, Bautista Agut, a semifinalist in 2019, looks in fine form too, having dropped just one set and displayed an impressive performance against Lorenzo Sonego in the previous round. Their first meeting on grass brings a bit of an unpredictable element to this match. Should Fognini maintain his momentum, he could potentially outlast Bautista Agut in what promises to be a tightly contested battle.
Prediction: Fognini in 5
Carlos Alcaraz vs Frances Tiafoe
Ateet
After being pushed by Aleksandar Vukic in the opening set, Carlos Alcaraz easily won the next two. To save himself for the later phases of the tournament, he didn’t waste much time in that one. Frances Tiafoe got a much easier win in the second round and would be pumped to play against Alcaraz. Tiafoe would have given a tough competition if he was in his best form but he is not.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
Jordan
Tiafoe is someone who is capable of performing on the biggest stage. This will undoubtably be a very entertaining match, regardless of how long it lasts. But Alcaraz’s better mentality and more complete game on grass should take him into the next round.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 4
Vishakha
Alcaraz looks in top form after winning his first two matches in straight sets. Tiafoe is riding high on confidence after backing up his comeback from being two sets down in the first round. This encounter will serve as a litmus test for Alcaraz as he continues his quest for a second Wimbledon title in a row. Tiafoe’s big forehand and aggressive playing style will pose a challenge for him. However, with his current form and mental fortitude, Alcaraz will have an edge over the American. Like their last meeting at a major (five-setter at the US Open 2022), expect this to be another close contest. Anticipate a couple of tie-breaks in this first meeting of the two on grass.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 4
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane – USA TODAY Sports