Although it’s a tired journalistic cliche to greet the announcement of a driver’s contract as ‘no surprise’, it was especially true of Oliver Bearman’s confirmation at Haas.
Bearman made a serious impression on the team with his performance and professionalism during his two appearances for them in practice sessions at the end of 2023. This year, the stars aligned for him perfectly to secure a full-time drive.
First Carlos Sainz Jnr went down with appendicitis at Jeddah and Ferrari called Bearman up to make his debut in his place. An F1 rookie in a Ferrari is a rare sight, and the fact the Scuderia entrusted him with one of their cars when they might easily have called up a known quantity like Antonio Giovinazzi was a strong signal they consider him the real deal.
Everyone got to see why they rated him so highly when he got behind the wheel of an SF-24. Despite missing Friday’s practice running he was quickly on the pace in his sole hour in the car, then came within four-hundredths of a second of beating Lewis Hamilton to the final place in Q3. On race day he proved a safe pair of hands and worked his way forward to score a fine seventh place, having put both Hamilton and Lando Norris behind him.
That alone raised expectations Ferrari would place him at their customer team next year. When it emerged Nico Hulkenberg would leave Haas to join Sauber at the end of this year, the timing couldn’t have been more perfect for Bearman. His latest F2 campaign may have been no great shakes, last week’s win notwithstanding, but that hardly matters against the quality of his performances in F1 machinery.
But as one driver arrives another must inevitably leave, at least until F1 sees fit to allow an 11th team in, which they remain unfathomably hostile towards. Who will therefore have to move aside to make way for Bearman?
Unusually there are already two drivers on the grid who know they won’t be at their current teams next year and have not confirmed their next destination yet. Carlos Sainz Jnr and Esteban Ocon are both race-winners as well, and therefore more highly coveted.
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On top of that, Hulkenberg’s impending move to the-team-soon-to-be-known-as-Audi must leave either Valtteri Bottas or Zhou Guanyu Looking for employment next year. In the former’s case, that means potentially another race-winner on the market.
Then there is the question of Bearman’s team mate. With a newcomer arriving, the continuity offered by Kevin Magnussen has obvious value. But Ocon has also been tipped for this season, potentially leaving Magnussen without a drive, as happened at the end of 2020.
Haas is not thought a likely destination for Sainz, though he appears to have his pick of the remaining vacancies, except Mercedes, who are considering Bearman’s team mate Andrea Kimi Antonelli unless they can lure Max Verstappen away from Red Bull. Sainz was already weighing offers from Audi and Williams, either of which would involving displacing another driver, but Alpine is also reported to have entered the bidding.
On top of that is the largely self-contained matter of what happens at Red Bull’s second team. As its motorsport consultant Helmut Marko has spelled out, Daniel Ricciardo could lose his seat to Liam Lawson at the end of the year.
Bearman’s confirmation therefore changes fairly little in the driver market for next year, which is likely why it has been announced at this point. Sainz’s delay in deciding his future is not a factor in this.
But Bearman’s arrival means those who fear they could be left without a seat next year now know that threat is real, and may be willing to settle for less than they were holding out for before.
But don’t rule out the possibility of more unexpected driver market developments to come. “All of these driver movements here is not the end of the story,” Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff foresaw last week.
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