Form analyst Mitch Cohen has run the rule over all the chances for Thursday’s Wyong and Nowra meetings in NSW.
WYONG
BEST BET
Race 4 No. 2 – INVADE AND CONQUER
Unlucky not to break the maiden last time after copping interference at Hawkesbury. He gets his day in the sun here.
NEXT BEST
Race 3 No. 6 – SILVAKIA
Finds a very winnable race to put another win on the board. The good draw and step up to a mile are big ticks.
VALUE BET
Race 5 No. 3 – THE GREY
First starter from the in-form Brad Widdup yard. He’s trialled up well and has the inside draw in his favour.
BEST EXOTIC
Race 5 – Boxed trifecta 1, 2, 3, 6.
QUADDIE
Race 5 – 1, 2, 3, 6
Race 6 – 1, 6, 7
Race 7 – 1, 3, 12
Race 8 – 6, 7, 10
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Apprentice Zac Wadick had some success for his boss Brad Widdup on Monday and combines with a number of key chances here.
INSIDE MAIL – WYONG
COSMOS FACTORY (8) is a lightly-raced son of Highland Reel that has placed in one of his three starts this preparation. He’s been competitive in both of his starts over the mile and looks ready to step up to 2000m here. Without a clear standout, he looks a great each way play if they choose to run here over Nowra. LYGON STREET (6) races in the colours of Melbourne Cup-winning owner Lloyd Williams. His form doesn’t read like much but you have to respect these gallopers when they come over. RICO SUAVE (1) and NOIR VITESSE (11) are among the chances in an open race.
Bet: Cosmos Factory each way.
Race 2: Super Maiden Handicap (1600m)
EVENFLOW (2) is a two-year-old taking on the older horses late in his juvenile season. The Peter and Paul Snowden-trained colt gets a crack at the mile third up after only getting run down late in a 1400m event at Kembla Grange last start. He will take some running down off that performance. SAMPHIRE GREEN (1)’s first run in Australia was fair, battling home to finish midfield over seven furlongs. He had plenty of scope for improvement and the mile looks more suitable. CREDITOR (3) was beaten a long away when favourite on debut but is capable enough to bounce back.
Bet: Evenflow to win.
SILVAKIA (6) hasn’t won since April last year but finds a fantastic chance to break that drought. She did enough first up from a spell on a heavy track that should have her battled hardened for this. A 2kg claim and perfect draw makes her the clear horse to beat. MOUNTAIN GUEST (2) can win this race on her best form but it’s been a while since we’ve seen it. She will find this much easier than recent starts and Braith Nock’s 3kg claim helps. WHISKER TO WHISKER (7) is a second up improver that can feature in wider multiples.
Bet: Silvakia to win.
INVADE AND CONQUER (2) was scratched from Wednesday’s Randwick Kensington meeting in favour of this assignment. He’s been a frustrating galloper with five placings from seven starts but this looks like a great chance for him to break through. He was unlucky not to do it first up at Hawkesbury when he struck interference in the straight and only needs to replicate that display. DU CAP (5) is the main danger. She’s been a runner up at this venue in two of her past three starts and should take catching on speed. SHARPEN THE KNIVES (8) has trialled up well and just needs to overcome a sticky draw to challenge.
Bet: Invade And Conquer to win. Quinella 2, 5.
Race 5: 2&3yo Maiden Handicap (1100m)
THE GREY (3) is an unraced $140,000 Magic Million Gold Coast Yearling Sale purchase that looks how punters would think. The son of Deep Field has trialled up well in preparation for his debut and has two key factors in his favour. He gets barrier one and Zac Wadick’s 2kg claim sees him get in with 54.5kg. DARK GLEAM (1) is among the challengers after showing promise with a first up fifth at Hawkesbury. He will derive plenty of benefit from that experience and gets the blinkers here. LONE ARTIST (2) and DIAMOND FIRETAIL (6) both command respect with good draws first up.
Bet: The Grey to win. Boxed trifecta 1, 2, 3, 6.
Race 6: Class 1 Handicap (1100m)
MAZ KANATA (7) also holds a nomination at Nowra and can win whichever way Jason Coyle goes. She has performed admirably in all three of her starts with a win and two placings, performing well fresh twice. A pair of solid trials have her primed for another strong first up showing here in a competitive event. MAFIA (1) is another galloper that was scratched from Randwick Kensington and looks well placed here from the inside draw. He’s a major player but the 59.5kg is against him. Don’t discount FOURTH SPARGO (6), who can bounce back after being caught three-deep in his first run for Bjorn Baker.
Bet: Maz Kanata to win/Mafia if scratched.
ALVINA’S LUCK (3) has continued to knock on the door throughout her career and tipping she can breakthrough this time. She’s placed in four of her six starts including when we last saw her finish third in a competitive race at Rosehill Gardens earlier this year. If PRESIDES (1) had drawn a gate, he would have been very hard to beat here. The Lonhro gelding still has to be considered on the strength of his strong first up second at Gosford. DARK GLEAM (12) is also in an earlier race but has to be included in wider bets if he gets a start in this as one of the emergencies.
Bet: Alvina’s Luck to win.
WORLD ALLIANCE (6) is a fresh flyer that can add to his perfect first up record to finish the day. Both of his career victories have come fresh from a break and his most recent trial effort indicates he’s ready to do that again. He’s a worthy favourite. BATTLE OF VIENNA (7) is a danger but his awkward alley makes life tougher. If he can get some cover in the run, he will be fighting out the finish. NICCI’S GEM (10) is another horse that performs well fresh and has looked good in the lead up to her return.
Bet: World Alliance to win.
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NOWRA
BEST BET
Race 1 No. 5 – TACT
Two-year-old having his first start for Richard and Will Freedman. Trial form indicates a bold debut showing.
NEXT BEST
Race 3 No. 2 – AUNTY GINNY
Will be short but should be winning. She strips fitter second up and handles the heavy going.
VALUE BEST
Race 5 No. 1 – HIGHBALLER
Trialled well ahead of his first run for the new yard. Courtney Ferris’ 4kg claim should really help his cause.
BEST EXOTIC
All Up – Race 1 No. 5, Race 3 No. 2
QUADDIE
Race 4 – 2, 4, 8
Race 5 – 1, 3
Race 6 – 1, 2, 5
Race 7 – 1, 4, 8
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Jean Van Overmeire sits 10th in the NSW jockeys’ premiership and has another great book on the NSW South Coast.